Here is another thing to consider. IR told me that part of the reason why the dividend dropped was maintenance. He said that will continue into 1st quarter of 2014. So we may see another low dividend and then the dividend pops. Even if the shorts are right, if the stock holds up and the dividend pops up 1st or 2nd quarter then retail money will consider that a rising dividend and blow the shorts out of the water.
This is having huge movements so you can make money on both sides. But I would be very careful trying to pinpoint any specific range where this should be. Between natural gas and future dividend announcements this could go anywhere from $100 to $190 in the next six months. Not exactly stable :)
There are very few losers out there so the ones that people have are getting concentrated selling. Welcome to thin stocks with no institutional support. I'm a buyer and hoping come Jan 1st there are only reasons to buy and no reason to sell.
I assume the engineers doing the annual report and the pv-10 valuations would take this into account, right?
Go listen to the conference calls for the past 6 quarters and get back to me if you think they will ever do this. This could trade at a 80% discount to NAV and I question if they would do a buyback. I heard people screaming at them for their unethical behavior but these slimy people don't care. They make their money from assets under management. If they reduce it they only hurt their own paycheck. Buyback is a LONG shot at best.
voice your opinion? lol I was researching how to force a proxy vote on a buyback a year ago. The board and management are the shareholders enemies in this stock. If you are hoping they bail you out then you are holding on to a prayer.
I agree 100%. I talked to the trustee and BreitBurn IR and this seems like a non-issue. The stock is down and people are looking for a reason. I freaked out because I was in HGT when they settled the lawsuit (which went down 50%). This is no big deal and I plan to keep dollar cost averaging.
And I just talked to our trustee and she said she had no heard about the ruling but that the wells that make up most of the dividend are long lasting. I don't see this having a big material impact although I would love to hear from one of the 6 analysts covering this stock. I called one of them but he can't talk to individuals for compliance reasons.
If anyone hears anything else please throw it out there.
I'm trying to piece it together. Santa Barbara is limiting a new project. ROYT gets the majority of its money from developed wells.
From the latest distribution: "The current net profits amount from the Developed Properties was approximately $5.6 million...The current month’s distribution also includes $0.2 million for the 7.5% overriding royalty on the Remaining Properties which produced 24,895 Boe from 37 Orcutt Diatomite wells and two Orcutt Field wells. The cumulative deficit of the net profits interest on the Remaining Properties, including the 7.5% overriding royalty payments, decreased from $3.5 million to approximately $3.4 million during the month. "
As long as this ruling doesn't hurt the existing wells things should be fine unless I'm missing something. It only gets 7.5% royalty to 25% net profits of the remaining properties.
Great trade liza, I wish I could have jumped in. According to the latest annual report, I have it written down that this is only worth around $2. Am I missing something here that makes it worth closer to $4 to $5 like you said above?
If you are buying it for the dividend than you should know the dividend will be heading back up in the next 2 quarters and should not sell based on one time charges for maintenance.
I'm not calling for $200 but this $50 3 day drop is definitely overdone.
If you bought and sold based on the latest dividend you would get killed on this thin stock. You might as well say, I buy at the high and sell at the low.
This is probably tax loss selling as we have seen other dividend plays that are near 52 week lows get the same brutal treatment. ROYT is another example.
Byasme, do you have a link or place to go to for people to see how this is affecting the price? I am watching TNH drop, I thought it was based off the dividend drop. But I can't see the price of the underlying commodity. Any help would be appreciated.
As cowbell said, its not a debate. If you are having trouble understanding the wash rule then google for examples or talk to a tax adviser.
Similar would be if you sold GE but bought deep in the money calls. SDR and SDT aren't even close to that IRS definition. Digedons and spartanhill, you guys should both talk to an accountant if you are having trouble understanding the wash rule. Or at least google the topic and read up on it.
Who is the bigger idiot? Moe for raising money which nets him fees or the GSVC longs who keep handing him more money?
I heard GSVC has another hot IPO on the way, run this back up to NAV and give Moe more of your money.
Oh and big question. I value these based on their latest annual report and the reported PV-10 values. Are there major pitfalls in doing valuations that way?