This utility already has a deal for NG in Oklahoma that's about three years old. This would be their second deal.
We seem to have a breather from the debt holders but we need to see the financials for Q4 (the first clean quarter) to know how viable this really is. Whether these two bozos are the right team to drive this clown bus is another question, but perhaps the debt holders will resolve this for us.
If Brent would simply stabilize, even at $60, the explorers around the world will adjust to that $60 and drill. RIG will get its share of the work, always have, always will. The dividend will adjust if need be. I think you buy this at $18, write some calls to earn some premium while you wait to see the impact of the stabilization at $60. If Brent falls to $50, you have another decision. This is my approach anyway.
SYRG is attracting a lot of attention lately for their success in the DJ/Wattenberg. Several Street analysts have placed it on to their best stocks list for 2015. SYRG said today they are increasing their 2015 CAPEX, not cutting like most other E&Ps.
BBG is in this same play. Is SYRG in the sweet spot and BBG is not, or is Mr. Market overlooking BBG? SYRG is pretty much a one trick pony for the DJ, whereas BBG has Utah. Usually analysts like some diversity of plays, but not in the BBG case, I guess.
If your target for crude in the Bakken at the wellhead is $25, $2.50 might be about right. As Freud might have said, sometimes a target is just a target.
The world is one million barrels a day oversupplied. If demand won't grow in the non-OECD world to consume those surplus barrels, we'll have to see a formula for supply reduction and be able to verify it on a continuing basis. Merely exporting US light oil does nothing to relieve the problem and will not increase prices or restore drilling budgets. Except for refinery configuration where some percentage of sour crude needs to be imported and run in the US, oil is fungible and price sensitive to world wide supply-demand.
They are not making this easy on us retail shareholders.
Thanks, arch53442, for pointing me to this SA piece authored by Dan Kinn. This quote from the Co-CEO resonates with me: "… our contracts are one thing that sets us aside from our competitor in that 100% of our contracts are take-or-pay contracts". Take-or-pay, as defined by HCLP's 2013 10-K, requires customers to pay a specified price for a specified volume of frac sand each month. If a customer does not "take" its contracted volume of sand, it must compensate HCLP, in part, for its lost margins. The contract, while certainly not perfect, is much stronger than those of Emerge."
If you had asked whether they can pay the 40 cent dividend they've committed to for 2015, it would have been a more intelligent post. Since you've opined they won't be able to afford CAPEX, you've qualified as a moron and must be ignored. Adios.
Retail here is but a fly speck in the pepper. Institutions, who drive this bus, know that oil weakening is not "ouch" but "oh, yea."