Triangle Petroleum Co. (NASDAQ:TPLM) is now covered by analysts at Macquarie ( ). They set a
"neutral" rating and a $7.00 price target on the stock. 35.1% upside from the previous close of $5.18.
Oil is already coming back in, but CRK is a natural gas play now anyway, or at least was as of the most recent conference call and Allison's announcement of change in focus to the Haynesville. On the May call he'll undoubtedly say we're a re-frac company until prices improve for either commodity and new drilling can be resumed.
Anybody review the archived webcast of the presentation to the Roth Capital conference? The introduction for Neil from the Roth analyst really sets the table for Neil's primer.
Look what bondholders have done for SARA, for example, a much more troubled situation than this. There remains an appetite for high yield credits with plenty of forbearance available. CRK is another example of a highly levered NG producer where the response from debt holders seems to be, just keep making those interest payments and we'll be satisfied.
"But in a research note that he put out earlier Wednesday, Genovesi (of UBS) said that airline demand is "trending below (large airlines') expectations" and as a result he thinks carriers will likely scale back capacity in the second half of the year.
"While cuts may be announced with Q1 results, we don't think they'll take effect until after Labor Day," he said.
Such moves wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. If airlines move quickly to reduce capacity when unit revenue is declining, as Genovesi says it is currently, "valuation multiples can move sustainably higher," he wrote.
Genovesi expects airline stocks to trade "modestly higher" over the next few quarters if earnings come in ahead of views. He raised his EPS estimates and price targets to reflect lower fuel costs, despite a slightly weaker unit-revenue outlook.
Revenue headwinds include a stronger dollar and "some capacity creep" both in the U.S. and internationally, he said in an email.
"I also think domestic demand is weaker than would be implied by economists' 3.5%-4% GDP growth expectations," he added.
The UBS analyst sees the most upside in 2015 for United Continental (NYSE:UAL) as its margin deficit relative to peers provides an opportunity for higher earnings growth.
United Continental's earnings are expected to jump 112% this year to $10.75 per share, according to analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. Earnings at Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), the largest carrier by market cap, are seen growing 45%.
Of 197 industry groups tracked by IBD, the airline group is No. 4, down from No. 1 eight weeks ago.
United Continental is the highest ranked of the major non-discount carriers, with an IBD Composite Rating of 94 out of 99 possible, based on metrics such as earnings and stock price. Delta has an 88.
Delta's "unique fleet strategy" and nonunion workforce make for a more flexible operating model, with lower fixed costs, better cash generation and higher return on invested capital than peers, Genovesi noted...."
Now, wouldn't you think the institutions who bought 4,000,000 shares at $51 in the secondary which closed only yesterday have taken this lock up expiration into account?
When the artificial demand is concluded, how much of this gain will it re-trace?
Now we wait for Q1 results and the chance to hear their thinking. I'm stuck and will have to wait this out with a $2.50 stock and massive uncertainty. Wow.
California Resources Corp (NYSE:CRC) CEO Todd A. Stevens bought 13,500 shares of California
Resources Corp stock on the open market in a transaction dated Thursday, March 5th. The shares were
purchased at an average price of $7.31 per share, for a total transaction of $98,685.00.
Perhaps waiting for the borrowing base redeterrmination announcement (due by March 31) might be prudent as it's tough to see something causing an upside reversal to this ugly trend.
If the San Benito County Superior Court upholds the legality of Measure J, it will join Monterey County in stopping further exploration and development. The environmental community wants AAPL building a solar plant along the San Benito/Monterey line south of COIL, not oil and gas, though I suspect greater tax revenues would come to the two counties from hydrocarbons. What a political tragedy.
This deserves to be up more than a dime on the Q4 results and ops update, but NG is only up a nickel and the focus remains the strip.