right on but it aint funny. it might have something to do with political ideology, long held belief in progressive outcomes result in failure to admit what is obvious...that a sinking non growth economy cannot thrive much less survive particularly if rates are rising. this (seemingly) is what markets are prognosticating, so long as dismal is expected, rate hikes are dangerous whatever the ideology of GS or the fed.
a rise in yield due to fed speak might be strong buy catalyst for TLT and not a sell. cash is dumping growth and for good reason, there are zero prospects for spurring economic growth and markets always factor the future and (I believe) neither of the two potential president candidates are positive...a macho punitive attitude toward trading partners and allies must create a big chill on DJIA...., populism as policy is negative, great companies must become defensive to remain standing,,,when charles koch muses clinton a better candidate than the republican, this might be true, the markets have the answer.
cautious on bonds is a joke, why not cautious on capitalism? most investors, mom and pop, are long gone the stock market, government deficits have no way of stabilizing, cash taxed to cover debt is becoming scarcer while earnings of what IS left standing declines with growth near ZERO. corporate inversion is under attack government needing revenue supporting failure and theft, a sacrifice of growth and continuation at the expense of USA government extracting cash to support re election of redistributionists...
cash gone to failure and re election of the worst politics.....charting markets of the future will resemble long long downward slope. no catalyst reversing the slide....bonds are not dead, capitalism will be
theres sophisticated trading programs out there, buys and sells are instantaneous and the loser is mom and pop investor, but they have been out of stocks since the crash....but which crash? those coming back after year 2000 got clocks cleaned year 2008 resulting in the lowest percentage of individual stock ownership in decades. cash is going into homes, houses, real estate, house flipping, value is there, retirement protection.
smart fast traders have protection, mom and pop have losses, the gld is reflecting the bear.,
todaysbearnings have not caused buyers to return, rather the bias is to sell any strength. the alan greenspan recently on tv where he explained the reason for the weak economic growth was important, plus there is no correction in sight for fiscal policy changes to inspire growth. greenspan stated it was the large amount of government debt that is being diverted from anything profitable and taxable and going into government "programs"
the goog msft etc earnings say beware, may is coming and what is the catalyst for investment?
whats more positive for treasuries is the need to "repatriate cash" if this economy had legs it would see confidence in business and cash remaining HERE. without sufficient income tax taken in, more revenue must be found, but only in success is where this cash can be found, since no compelling reason exists today to invest here cash is KING and must not be lost.... this cannot be made easily today while competitors emerge worldwide......risk is on for bonds.
1981 we had Reagan, that was the beginning of the HUGE bull run.....today, we have no one to promote prosperity, sanders is a HUGE market sell, the buying of the bonds has REAL LEGS.
0.7% is better than zero., considering pressure from economists the fed and the administration to push success, the economy is neither" fixed nor awesome". household wealth is coming from home ownership prices rising 5% in one year but at some point far fewer people will be able to afford the first home. and cash stored from "the years of prosperity" from older folks one day must meet its end banks no more bag holders . with available cash still going into the one sure mom and pop investment of choice, banks are stressed, maybe the best is just to mull along at near zero.
people are disgruntled, this is from the long stagnating middle classes, the wagon pullers... consequently candidates express distain of politics. memories persist of low taxes and prosperity while growth and economy sluggish and more of the same to come, but getting there is ?
somewhere 130,7+ oops 131.....
you hear retired congressman bill archer, formerly ways and means...".everyone wants something for nothing", doesnt that sum it up and companies leave the country in extreme defenss mode.
you are the smartest and most perceptive poster on the boards, investors should pay attention. markets also tell truth...I dont believe (any) fed is concerned with market declines, they cannnot save economies anyway. but fiscal and gvt policies are important and for equities (capitalism) there is no relief for the negativity, corporations and businesses long have been bearish and not upgrading or spending, to remain viable they leave USA......some postives, a few crumbs thrown to capitalism is needed.
128.4....................there is problem here...the fed is tightening or normalizing but there is no corresponding energy in this economy. talk of far more government intervention redistributing other peoples wealth and "negotiating proper" price levels for drugs created in the private sector is not conducive for investment...we need growth strong enough to offset ANY rate increases and at least halting the slide in price of oil. the more the fed raises the lower the rates will go?........."something is rotten in denmark"