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Demandware, Inc. Message Board

doublebagger448 271 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 3, 2014 5:22 PM Member since: May 11, 2004
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  • doublebagger448 doublebagger448 Apr 3, 2014 5:22 PM Flag

    You are both wrong. NQ has ZERO ability to control the timing of the release of the independent audit by D&T. The audit is being managed completely independently and NQ has zero influence. Second, the 20F is due to be filed before the END of April. That said, PWC would NOT OK the release of the earnings if PWC was not very comfortable with the body of work supporting the 20F. The 20F requires 100s of pages to be finalized before its filing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • doublebagger448 doublebagger448 Aug 9, 2013 11:14 AM Flag

    bump

  • doublebagger448 doublebagger448 Aug 1, 2013 5:13 PM Flag

    bump

  • Reply to

    time ta short this turd!

    by kkkelleeyjuwbusterzzrusss Jul 29, 2013 7:41 PM
    doublebagger448 doublebagger448 Jul 29, 2013 8:07 PM Flag

    I beg you to short NQ. You will be buying it back over $30.

    Try doing some actual due diligence. Of course, this assumes you can read, understand finance, understand mobile strategy and can read a balance sheet.

  • Reply to

    Enough With The Rubbish

    by bonkthegrups Jun 19, 2013 10:01 AM
    doublebagger448 doublebagger448 Jun 20, 2013 2:48 AM Flag

    Sorry you ignorant clown. Haven't posted in months. A friend alerted me to your slander. I can assure you, I post under none of the IDs you cited except Treasure Hunter on SA and DB on Yahoo and SHU.

  • doublebagger448 by doublebagger448 Jun 12, 2013 7:27 PM Flag

    There is no fundamental valuation support for SCTY. The stock ran up on the Elon Musk hype and a tight pre-lock-up release float. The lock-up expiration is injecting millions of additional shares into the market and the equity markets are quickly becoming rockier. The return to fundamental value will be a steady process with occasional upticks and the fierce rally every now and then. that said, SCTY is headed down. Bubbles pop during equity market transitions. SCTY will find a floor around $12-15. It may take a month or 12 months, but it will happen. Doubters are encouraged to look at the roadkill of previous bubble stocks that had zero fundamental support....MCP, REE, BVSN, BIDU, GRPN, ZNGA, TZOO, KIOR....I could list 100 more, but the dynamics are almost always the same. Hot sector, huge promises about something 5+ years in the future, zero fundamental support...and then a gradually implosion. SCTY will hit $15 within 1 - 12 months.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Gotta love SA article, shorts will burn lol

    by vikesbull Apr 16, 2013 3:10 PM
    doublebagger448 doublebagger448 Apr 16, 2013 4:08 PM Flag

    Earnings date will be announced after the filing of the 20-F. Will be in mid-May.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Though you have been asked several times to provide your data and analysis SPECIFIC to NQ (not all Chinese companies in general) as to why you are certain NQ is a fraud, you have nothing to say.

    Your argument goes something like.....there have been several reverse merger Chinese companies that turned out to be frauds, therefore ALL Chinese companies are frauds. NQ is NOT a reverse merger IPO. NQ went public and was vetted by 3 US investment backs. If we follow your logic, are all energy companies frauds, since Enron was a fraud??

    Here are some additional facts (note the difference between FACTS and baseless fear mongering) that provide comfort.

    (1) NQ raised $31M from top-tier VCs including Sequoia, Mayfeild and GSR and was deeply vetted by all
    (2) NQ is audited by PWC (the only top 4 not to have a problem with Chinese frauds)
    (3) NQ registered for a secondary and was vetted by Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch in Summer 2012
    (4) Ex-CTO of Samsung Wireless, Omar Khan, performed EXTENSIVE due diligence (using his extensive contacts in the mobile industry) before joining in Jan 2012 as co-CEO
    (5) NQ’s products have 50,000+ reviews (ave rating 4.5 stars) in Google’s app store.
    (6) 2 of NQ’s core products won Top 25 awards at CES 2013
    (7) America Movil (3rd largest wireless company in the world) did deep technical due diligence on NQ before entering into an extensive partnership
    (8) NQ’s founders entered into a voluntary 2 year lock-up in Summer 2012 on their shares.
    (9) Numerous of Verizon's largest premium retailers (4G, A Wireless, Go Wireless, Diamond Wireless, and now Russell Cellular) have signed distribution deals to sell NQ's suite of products and they currently have a 20% attach rate on Android smartphones.

    So multiple ID posting loser.....spare us your baseless innuendos. Either present a data-driven fact-based argument SPECIFIC to NQ, or get lost.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • In the last 2 weeks, the CEOs/Founders of Baidu, Tencent and Alibaba have all said they are looking for acquisitions in the smartphone space. NQ's 283M customers, 100%+ annual growth, strong China footprint, cross platform monetization and ultra-depressed valuation make it an obvious choice.

    I don’t own NQ based on a M&A investment thesis. NQ’s business is accelerating, more channel partners are coming on-line and the company is executing very well. NQ’s deal pipeline is full. NQ is growing revenue and FCF 100%+ year-over-year, just signed a game-changing deal with American Movil, is trading at just 5.3x EV/EBITDA 2013 and 3.2x EV/EBITDA 2014.

    NQ is destined to trade much higher.

    2 recent articles...

    Baidu open to acquisitions, CEO Li says
    March 6, 2013, 2:29 a.m. EST
    By MarketWatch

    BEIJING--Baidu Inc. Chief Executive Robin Li said Wednesday that the company was "very open" to acquisitions of companies that make products for smartphones, though he wouldn't say whether Baidu was currently in talks with any companies.
    Speaking on the sidelines of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, Mr. Li said the company was focused on attracting more users to its mobile products and believed it would make money on the products later.
    Though Baidu remains the most popular search engine on smartphones and also has a widely used map application, some analysts have worried the company is lagging behind other Chinese Internet companies like Tencent Holdings Ltd. and Sina in the race to attract users to its smartphone services.
    "Whenever we can find some company that already has what we want to own, we prefer to buy rather than build it," he said.
    Mr. Li's statement also highlights how China's largest Internet companies are increasingly looking to acquisitions to expand.
    On Tuesday, Tencent Chief Executive Pony Ma also said his company is open to acquisitions.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • doublebagger448 by doublebagger448 Mar 11, 2013 2:47 PM Flag

    NQ is presenting at Piper tomorrow and has 2 full days of 1x1 meetings with 17 funds. NQ is insanely compelling given the increasing guidance, America Movil deal, market cap back to $500M and increasing trading liquidity. I expect numerous funds to build positions. We go higher over the next few weeks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • doublebagger448 by doublebagger448 Mar 7, 2013 12:24 AM Flag

    There are several funds that wanted to see a clean 4Q12 print and/or needed the market cap to be over $500M. Both have now happened. NQ is still DIRT CHEAP. At $12 NQ is trading at just 5.6x EV/EBITDA 2013 with a 13% FCF yield (ex-cash) and will grow top-line revenue approx 120% y/y. YES...120%!!!! I am a buyer under $13. Stock should go MUCH higher from the after-hours level of $10.50. Expecting $30-$40+ within 12 months (or sooner) if the US equity markets hold together.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • doublebagger448 by doublebagger448 Mar 6, 2013 3:36 PM Flag

    Read the article below….

    Just so you know….Baidu and NQ Mobile share a common Board member and Baidu recently raised $1.5 billion to make acquisitions in the mobile space. Wonder if Baidu + NQ Mobile are a marriage waiting to happen.

    Also….NQ Mobile’s Feiliu division is a leading mobile game operator and operates several of TenCent’s mobile games exclusively. TenCent is also a likely acquirer of NQ Mobile.

    I don’t own NQ based on a M&A investment thesis. That said, NQ is growing revenue over 100% year-over-year, just signed a game-changing deal with American Movil, is trading at just 4.2x EV/EBITDA 2013. NQ seems destined to trade much much higher. $30/ADR for NQ is reasonable.

    Baidu open to acquisitions, CEO Li says
    March 6, 2013, 2:29 a.m. EST
    By MarketWatch

    BEIJING--Baidu Inc. BIDU -1.05% Chief Executive Robin Li said Wednesday that the company was "very open" to acquisitions of companies that make products for smartphones, though he wouldn't say whether Baidu was currently in talks with any companies.

    Speaking on the sidelines of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, at which he is a delegate, Mr. Li said the company was focused on attracting more users to its mobile products and believed it would make money on the products later.

    Though Baidu remains the most popular search engine on smartphones and also has a widely used map application, some analysts have worried the company is lagging behind other Chinese Internet companies like Tencent Holdings Ltd. and Sina Corp. SINA -2.55% in the race to attract users to its smartphone services.

    "Whenever we can find some company that already has what we want to own, we prefer to buy rather than build it," he said.
    Mr. Li's statement also highlights how China's largest Internet companies are increasingly looking to acquisitions to expand. In the past, many companies wou

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Yahoo won't let me post it here, but search Google on "NQ Mobile: safeguarding smartphones" and you will find it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Crispy shorts covering or longs adding?? Stock goes $90++ before the announcement.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • doublebagger448 by doublebagger448 Feb 18, 2013 10:33 PM Flag

    Let me begin by being clear about the final bid date. The final bid date is NOT changing. It is Feb 28th. The bidders are still tweaking, refining, enhancing their bids. Each bid will require a thorough financial analysis by the bankers using a standardized framework across all the bidders. The modeling and analysis process will take some time, even with the bankers working nearly 24/7. There are numerous variables contained in each bid: the percentage of the LNG plant IOC will own, whether there is a cost overrun guarantee provided by the bidder (this is VERY valuable to IOC), amount of cash and the percentage paid on signing the definitive agreements vs. various milestones, exploration options beyond E/A and the economics around new resources, etc., etc.. All of this analysis needs to be done for each the 4-6 bids coming in. Given the complexity and the total dollars involved, the IBs will need AT LEAST 1.5 weeks to complete the bid analysis for each bid and get fairness opinions drafted and signed off and make day-long presentations to the IOC Board. Anyone that says otherwise either has not been through these processes (I have been through several as a principal) and/or does not understand the legal standards an IB must meet in order to satisfy the standard of care (as an attorney with 15+ years of M&A and transactional experience involving public companies, I do). Hence, the EARLIEST you should expect the IOC Board to meet is March 9-10. If there is a clear winner, you could hear an announcement from InterOil the week of March 11th.

    Chatter is that the bid process is extremely active and the 4 conforming bidders are highly engaged, eager and focused on winning. This is why you saw the stock move up over the last week. Some of the shorts located in Australia have better access to real-time information/developments and have concluded the deal is going to happen and it will be quite favorable for IOC. That said, I would not be surprised, if either of the 2 non-conforming entities (both SMs) make a takeover offer for 100% of InterOil before the signing of the definitive agreements. Just to be super clear, the most likely time for a takeover bid for InterOil is after the sell-down partner/deal is announced and before the definitive agreements are signed for the sell-down deal. It typically takes 2-3 months between deal announcement and the deal closing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Chatter is there are at least 4 conforming final bids coming no later than February 28th and there could be another 1 - 2 NON-CONFORMING bids as well. Non-conforming bid = bid for more than 32.5% of E/A ...all the way to 100% of IOC. The IBs will be working feverishly to model each final bid and get financial and deal analysis ready for presentation to the Board in early March. I have been through several deal auction processes involving IBs and multiple bidders. My best guess is the IBs will need 7-14 days to get all the models, scenarios, presentations, opinion letters, internal IB sign-offs, and a final recommendation prepared for IOC's Board.

    Very exciting stuff. I would hate to be short starting the week of March 11th.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • If history holds, the shorts will dump 100K - 200K shares on the market around the time Wayne is presenting at the IPAA 905am - 935am EST tomorrow (Wednesday Feb 13). They do this to make long investors freak out and assume there must be negative information that was revealed at the IPAA.

    Let's be super clear. There is NOTHING negative coming at the IPAA tomorrow. In fact, there will be some positives discussed. If the shorts are dumb enough to try the" dump and spread fear" tactic...thank them for knocking the stock down a few dollars and buy the #$%$ out of it.

    There are 3 large buyers in the market. The stock won't stay down for long....minutes??

    Desperate shorts....so sad, so pathetic. Buh-bye.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The noose is rapidly tightening and the shorts are getting nervous. Chatter from the sell-down process confirms Feb 28th is a firm bid deadline with all parties (IOC's Board, the investment bankers, the bidders and the PNG officials) working feverishly on final bids. The bids have to be authorized by all approval committees required by each bidder, so the bids presented on Feb 28th are binding and final.

    The implied vol in the March and April call options is climbing crazy fast. The implied vol was in the 50s a week ago and now in the mid 80s!!!! This is another indication the market is expecting the potential for a very sharp move higher.

    Cannot believe there are 11.5M shares short. Sooooo much fuel for the fire. Crispy shorts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Current Set-Up

    by doublebagger448 Feb 5, 2013 9:14 PM
    doublebagger448 doublebagger448 Feb 5, 2013 9:40 PM Flag

    Have never been short InterOil. Very long IOC via both stock and long calls.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • doublebagger448 by doublebagger448 Feb 5, 2013 9:14 PM Flag

    InterOil recently announced that final bids are due on February 28th for the partial sell-down of Elk/Antelope. If this was a normal situation, you would expect the stock price to gradually move up towards the expected bid value (well over $100/share) minus a risk discount. Instead, the short interest has climbed to an all-time high (11.4M shares) and the stock has drift sideways to slightly down. Why is this? As the shorts repeatedly point out, the CEO Phil Mulacek has made numerous statements in the past regarding a pending sell-down and those dates came and went. As a result, Mulacek has lost all credibility with Wall Street and the shorts are counting on Phil to screw-up yet again. Curiously, this is the short thesis of 3 well-respected hedge funds I spoke with over the past 2 weeks.

    It is always dangerous to say ‘This time is different’, but the facts support this conclusion. On July 2, 2012 InterOil announced that Gaylen Byker assumed the role of Chairman of the Board. Potential bidders wanted assurances that the bidding process would be run professionally and that the goal posts would not move (yet again). Word is that several bidders expressed specific concerns regarding Mulacek and his questionable credibility. InterOil desired to demonstrate its commitment to a professional process and was not going to let anyone (Mulacek) subvert the process. The Company responded by marginalizing Mulacek’s power on the Board. From some reason, the shorts fail to embrace the significance of this.

    Formal bidding instructions were sent out to all potential bidders with a firm deadline for bids; February 28, 2013. Formal bidding instructions and a firm bid deadline have never happened in the past. I guess the shorts do not care about that fact. The Board of InterOil is extremely committed to the completion of the competitive bidding process for Elk/Antelope. They feel that all parties (InterOil and the potential bidders) have sufficient information on the E/A reservoir to make informed decisions.

    It is curious that the shorts are no longer barking about the quality of the E/A reservoir. Several reservoir engineers (GK, GLJ, KR) have estimated E/A to have 6-9+ Tcfe. The logs were all done by Schlumberger. The bidders all acknowledge the high quality of the resource. A3’s results only confirmed this.

    So….where does that leave us? The shorts are betting on another delay given IOC’s colored history. Smart bet or #$%$ bet?? Hmmmm. Well, there was never a formal bid process with a firm bid deadline, managed by world-class investment banks, and committed to by a Board not headed by Mulacek before. Further, the Board is under immense pressure from IOC's largest holders to get a deal done.

    Lastly, there are at least 3 super majors, 1 national oil company (Chinese??), and JKM involved in the process. InterOil’s Board is partial to selecting a super major, unless the JKM bid is substantially superior. It will be hard to argue that a partner like Shell, Exxon or Total does not erase the lingering credibility overhang.

    I expect we will see IOC drift up towards $75-$85 heading into the bidding results. The Board is scheduled to meet on March 4th. I expect we will hear an update from IOC shortly after (within a few days) of the Board meeting. Any deal that values the resource over $1/mcf and includes at least $200M cash should be adequate to shatter the short argument and propel IOC to well over $125/share. Good luck to all and I hope that the shorts get what they richly deserve.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

DWRE
60.42+2.02(+3.46%)Dec 26 4:02 PMEST

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