Thanks Tony, I couldn't find one single statement on total shares if all Series A & B are converted to common, but what I could piece together is that we are currently around 620 million shares on a fully converted basis of the Series A and B, including the recent offering, so close to your number. Series B stock dividends could add 20M more potentially converted shares in 2014, 22M more in 2015, etc. I am just trying to model the future possible sales opportunity, market cap and stock price using a worst-case scenario for the Series A & B conversion.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
After sifting through the 10-K, my rough calculation of the current total fully-diluted shares outstanding (assuming full conversion of Series A and Series B into common stock) is roughly 500 million common shares, with the Series B dividend generating an additional 20 million of converted common shares per year. Is my math approximately correct?
Despite my concerns with management, the science is too compelling. I added more earlier this week at 2.78 and some more today at 3.18. I have been here for a while, hope the wait will be worth it.
I am B/E at 7.30/sh. I have been tempted to add more shares but I am just not confident in management, that is probably a sign I should sell but I still believe in the science.
This is at least a 3-5 year hold for the potential big payoff (i.e., $3+/sh), some aren't willing to be patient for that long, their looking to flip for pennies. Plus, the Q1 announcement was as expected, nothing really new that we didn't already know, some are probably disappointed by that.
I would say flat to down tomorrow. I hope I am wrong, but today's announcement was pretty much already known and past experience suggests stock may drift lower until something new/positive is announced.
No, it would not be prudent. They are not cash flow positive yet. They just issued shares to raise money earlier this year.
Half of their Q2 is already on the books, expected more definitive Q2 guidance but it is what it is, still holding long-term.
Disappointed by very limited Q2 sales guidance. "Significantly higher than Q213", no kidding, what about sequentially?? That is what matters. I am still long and believe in the potential but would not be surprise to see stock down in wake of vague Q2 guidance.
If memory serves me correctly, I think Chan referred to ~$10M/yr in revenue as the break-even point but not 100% sure. Looking at current financials, adding for some of the people resource investments and assuming 60% gross margins, seems about right.
I am taking a beating on ADXS too but it is a smaller position than my CTSO. Hopefully our CTSO will more than offset our ADXS loss.
CRM is very overvalued, this fact it has been talked about and debated for a long time, stock held up well for a long time too, but at some point fundamental valuations matter.
Maybe a little pop tomorrow, say 5%, I think this news will slowly move us back up to test 35 cent range over next 2 months on anticipation of next quarter's results.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Maybe ADXS has an out of control cash burn rate, incompetent management and is in a death spiral with no real good news coming. I hope I am wrong, but actions from management are not looking good.
If there was GOOD news coming soon, why dillute at $3/share? They just raised $25M in October, they have cash right now, raise cash after the so-called coming good news - doesn't add up unless our management team is completely incompetent or a bunch of crooks - either way it looks extremely bad.
What about the next dilution in 6 months?, will that be at $2.00 a share? they just raised $25M in October at $4/sh, now another $12M at $3/sh, they are burning through cash fast. I want to add more shares, but don't have confidence in management right now, they need to step up and really prove themselves to investors - obviously the market is not very impressed with ADXS right now.
Too bad we can't automatically block penny flippers from Yahoo message boards so that real investors can have intelligent and useful investment discussions. If CTSO drops further I will simply add more shares, I am concerned about the stock price 2-3 years from now, not today.
I am holding long and looking to buy more shares after the next dilution round happens. Of course I don't like dilution but that is part of the micro-cap biotech investment game and you should expect to experience it and expect/plan to buy more shares (on a scaling up basis) if the technology remains promising. I still believe in their IP and still see a potential 5X bagger or more for the patient investor - if the IP starts to look shaky then I will sell.