Another Insider Purchase for 3,000 shares at 4.95 on March 25th.
In the newest Sched 13D Disclosure.
'MDB Capital Group, LLC acquired 183,000 shares of common stock in a market transaction for $5.68, for an aggregate $1,039,440.00, on March 4, 2015.'
The disclosure only shows up yesterday.
The price drop is common between CCs while short-term traders look at others stocks. I didn't think it would drop this low again.
The last CC shifted from March 10th 2014 into late February 2015. Maybe the Q1 CC will be scheduled for late April this year rather than May.
Most of the executives in the company are very experienced engineers with specialized knowledge in the field. You can't pay entry level engineering salaries to invent new technology in a mature industry. The discrepancy between 10k and 25k really isn't that much when you solve worldwide problems.
Please keep selling though - I like cheap shares.
'With the amount of savings implied we can the figure out what the pay back is to the companies that install DB's on their generators?
Not yet. More information is needed from the early installations.
'Meanwhile do you have any projected numbers of what CLIR management thinks it can sell and at what prices per installation.
Some details were released in the November CC - but I won't repeat it here so that I can't be quoted on it.
How strong are the company's patents?
I haven't done a comparison. CLIR has been hiring quality Energy executives formerly at John Zinc company. Would they be moving to Seattle and buying stock in a company with weak patents? Look at their directors and advisers too.
What do you estimate as the % of ongoing production costs?
They have three main costs. (1) new R&D for the ECC and DB, (2) Cost of Goods Sold, and (3) Customer acquisition costs. The R&D is uncertain. Costs of Goods will be a low percentage, but it is hard to say during one-by-one orders during the early phase. Once the DB tile shapes and sizes are known for each model of burner then quantities can be produced at lower cost. Customer acquisition costs will be extremely low once the early trials are known.
Do you think CLIR is a prime takeover candidates?
Not yet. Insiders may own too much stock.
The company did some funding recently what was the raised fund used for?
Last year's Operating Expenses and R&D were about 6 million. The 15 million raised allows the company to pay current salaries and expenses for two more years without revenues although DB revenues can ramp up soon.
what is your estimated pps with the next 6 and 12 months?
I can't estimate a figure yet since it really depends on NEWS from early customer installs and how fast energy companies adopt new technology. I like that a few companies own large numbers of boilers. Once the benefits are known large orders will be forthcoming.
The benefit for coal power generation also benefits consumers. According to the EPA - coal generates 39 % of power. Here is the breakdown from the EPA 2013 website data.
Natural Gas 27%
Other Renewable 6%
The two solutions create MORE HEAT from the same amount of fuel while lowering the polluting exhaust.
How much more is the biggest question - 5%, 10%, or 20% - or more.
How does it work? by changing the location and shape of the flame to broaden the surface area of the burning fuel without creating hot spots that damage the boiler water pipes that create steam.
Without recirculating Flue Gas or a Duplex burner - the normal flame is shaped by the burner air flow and the vortex of methane gas sprayed into the burner nozzle. The flame shape has hot spots and cool spots that leads to higher levels of NOx and CO in the exhaust due to the way methane burns up to become CO2. CO is essentially under burned fuel - since CO2 is what should be the fully burned fuel with the most energy released to heat water. NOx is burned nitrogen N2 into NOx due to hot spots that can't be avoided in standard burners.
Current low NOx technology requires Recirculating Flue Gas to put exhaust back into the burner. But the exhaust lowers the oxygen and increases the temperature of the flame - so the flame shape is cooler and bigger (2-3 times). Due to the flame size, the boilers are limited to 60-70% run capacity - so a 62.5 MMbtu/hr boiler can only run at 45 MMbtu/hr. Therefor the capacity of the heat per hour is lowered as well as the CO pollutants increase.
The Duplex burner solves all these problems.
(1) Lowers HOx pollution.
(2) Lowers CO pollution.
(3) Increases the Fuel burn per hour 30% higher than Recircuclated Flue Gas systems.
(4) Reciruculated Flue Gas also lowers efficiency by 10% or more. So the burner creates more heat per therm of Gas.
The unknown question is - how much savings in fuel - or how much faster can you pump oil if you can run the burner at 30% higher rate.
The ECC solution is potentially a savior solution for Coal Plants - if it can reduce particulates, CO, and NOx while creating more steam per pound of coal. Clearsign is adapting its pilot design.
Revision - Warrant Exercise Price is 5.32.
I found an issue press release that reports the Warrant Expiration date as June 4th 2017 rather than December. Schwab shows December 31 2017 - so I have to confirm which date is correct.
As I remember - 5.25 or 5.30 - December 2017.
It is close to a $5 call option with a 2 years and 9 months term. If you don't think TROV will be over $9.50 by the warrant date - then it isn't a good buy.
Good question. I bought some warrants at $4 today. The gap is now 2.65 difference between shares and warrants. The gap has ranged from $1 to $2 in general over the last year. The exercise data is still nearly three years away.
under California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), part of AB32,
even moderate adoption [of known technologies] could meet a substantial portion of
obligations for refiners under the standard, which requires
a reduction of 17 million metric tons in 2020.
California refineries are required to meet stricter emissions by 2020. Any emission standards that are exceeded can be used as 'carbon credits' for other projects that don't meet CA standards.
So there are perpetual needs to improve efficiency ASAP with the optimal solutions at any stage of production and refining.
I found the Carbon Reduction Opportunities
in the California Petroleum Industry report through a Google search.
There are interesting facts in this report:
(1) Focus of Carbon Reduction on three Carbon Producing Processes:
(a) 11% of Carbon comes from Oil Recovery Processes
(b) 14% of Carbon comes from Oil Refining Processes
(c) 73% of Carbon comes from Transportation processes
The remaining 2% comes from Transporting Oil between (a), (b) and (c).
CLIR's Duplex Burner can improve (a) and (b).
Another report - Utah study (I think) - reports that Flue Gas Recirculation reduces steam production by 10%. So the Duplex burner can eliminate FGR and improve steam output 10% for the same amount of natural gas. There may be other penalties related to FGR as well.
Utah Energy Study reports -
'In the SJV [SanJoaquin Valley] there are over 400 such [OTSG] generators, of which over 150 are operated by Chevron North America Exploration and Production Company'
Siemens page reports
In 2000, 1,000 Benson boilers are currently installed worldwide. Benson boilers are Once Through Steam Generators that use various fuels - coal, gas, etc.
Siemens website features solutions that include OTSG in cogeneration solutions although they call the OTSG boilers HRSG boilers. the OTSG boilers are in major installations in CA (El Segundo) and Texas (Panda Sherman Power Plant) with more to come. Conversion efficiency (Gas into Electricity) is 50-60 percent depending on size of plant.
Siemens page says this:
'The market for gas-fired power plants in the United States is expected to virtually triple from 7 gigawatts today to about 22 gigawatts in 2020. “With the right technology and with our local manufacturing capabilities, we are in the starting blocks for the anticipated growth in the United States gas market,” said Suess. '
If CLIR's Duplex burner can improve the OTSG efficiency further - (lower NOx or CO emissions) all these plants can be potential customers. The project report emissions at 2 ppm NOx and 10 ppm CO, so the benchmark for large power plant uses is tougher than oil and gas uses.
A list of California Power Plants defines 287 cogeneration plants. One part of the generator uses a OTSG or HRSG boiler. The Peak Power plants which shutdown frequently when not needed like the OTSG option which has a quicker start-up time with other features. OTSG uses with Gas Turbine energy generation are occurring more often - since the start-up times for newer Gas Turbines are shorter.
former CA Governor Grey Davis pushed for Peak Energy power plants to be built all over CA. Those plants are running now.
I will try to identify the OTSG / HRSG percentages.
IST - a OTSG manufacturers lists 9 examples of OTSG boilers installed in the US, Canada, and Europe. All for Power Generation - rather than Oil and Gas uses.
The potential for OTSG boilers is growing with the need for Peak Need power plants that can run with just the Turbine Generator or in combination with an OTSG solution. These systems help decrease the emissions in the exhaust of a Gas Turbine Generator.
The latest TROV presentation indicated that two cancer variants are at a mature stage - waiting for something. Pancreatic cancer and ECD/LCD tests using the BRAF tests.
I don't know if that means the company has filed applications with the FDA already or more trials are pending. KRAF and other tests are definitely waiting for more trial data.
I have been invested for nearly two years. I have followed all the CCs over the last year. There has been no mention of FDA applications submitted, but they seem to believe that revenue will start this year - so those two facts don't align unless they expect to get some approval later this year.
The company is waiting on installation trial data from the first three orders - one order is stalled due to refinery strikes. The Feb 17th news was ideal since the critical goals were achieved, but the press release was modestly written. Investors have to wait for more customer trial data and new orders.
If the first trial scales up to 65 MMBtu / hr with 5 ppm NOx then bigger OTSG systems will be in play. The Canadian oil production market is expanding right now. Those OTSG boilers are much bigger. Canadian regulations measure all the pollutants by the oil industry, so they will try to mitigate pollution issues. They have to use OTSG boilers to get the non-surface oil out of the ground because it is too thick to flow without heated steam.
I am trying to estimate the number of OTSG systems that CLIR can sell their Duplex Burner.
Coen reports 10 boilers in California.
Babcock Power - reports 1,200 OTSG worldwide on their website.
'TEI-Struthers Wells Division and its predecessor were the pioneers in Enhanced Oil Recovery OTSG technology. Today this technology is used in many of the boilers operating in oil fields, with over 1,200 Struthers steam generators in service throughout the world.'
I found a great summary of Flue Gas Recirculation Issues in a whitepaper here.
genesyscombustion website white paper.
The Burner Output is lowered below its maximum rating. If you purchase a 100 MMBtu burner, the output is reduced to 50-70 MM Btus per hour. So the companies have to spend more on burner capacity size to get the full output from the boiler.
FGR also causes changes in higher CO and other carbon particles which do not burn fully which causes other problems.