Received a notice that one of my 2 claims did not have a "recognized loss" as defined on page 5 of their notice.
(I did in 2 separate categories)
Just spent 1/2 hour going in circles on something 4th grade level. NOTE: these are figured out by hand and they are not very good at it. There are 5 groups, each with their own qualifiers. They had two of these wrong on just one claim!
They will call me back in about 3 days when supposedly they can have my papers in front of them.
DO NOT trust this company to figure it out correctly! There is a very small window to address - March 15.
They have yet to decide, with confidence, what "their point of difference" is.
So now they are a water company, with soda in their name?!?!
I thought they got the most milage when they went after Coke (aka Ben & Jerry's) about the garbage... Everyone wants to do right by the world & be green. RIGHT?
Web shall see....said the blind man.
What does?? :-) I always wanted to master a foreign language...the female language would be my first choice..
After a loooong spell, I also got back in @ about $24..WHY???...not sure right now......
I doubt it. Look at the write downs they are taking on inventory.. That does not show the upfront costs to get in initially either.
When you take product off shelves - a good guestimate is twice the cost of what you sold it for. It takes MANY unit sales with a pretax margin of ..?.. to cover one returned sku.
They BET, (wrongly) that the profitable sales would justify the costs....they didn't.
Too much - TOO quick for the sales base..TOO many SKU"s, TOO many markets, TOO many countries, TOO many partnerships, TOO many retailers, TOO many manufacturing sites, TOO many moving pieces - even if they were a mature LARGE company.
I HOPE they learn the term "SKU RAT"!
@burgh - "get rid of all of their customers" - trying to be silly? :-)
- It is COMMON for a manufacturer to limit distribution. Demographics alone require it. You don't sell as many ice chests in Wisconsin, in winter as Miami..... Or Walmart sells more rifles & ammo in Nebraska than NY metro.
- IF you have a really HOT product, manufacturers have enough leverage to negate ALL of the negatives. The retailer REALLY wants it. NO entry costs, NO returns, NO advertising dollars...
- SODA is not Coke or Pepsi....( I wish), and should NOT be in all stores. Do you think Ice fishing buckets are in southern California stores?
YOU prove my point - The CEO was way over the tips of his ski's. Soda products did not have a user base strong enough to provide required movement from the shelf to retain all of that retail distribution.......as history showed.
Patience - can be a virtue - ask ATTY
"Distribution and sales promotion costs" Not so simple.
- On new sku's retailers receive free goods. Fewer stores = fewer free.
- Retailers demand advertising funds. Fewer stores = fewer $'s
- By limiting stores to the BEST stores, inventory control is easier. Less Out of stocks (lost sales) & overstocks (costly returns)
- Producer can focus advertising dollars in fewer markets. Less cost & more effect.
- Buyer/user retention goes higher. People who buy machine want to be able to buy refills & flavors not having to worry about annual changes and daily out of stocks.
- LASTLY - end of season & discontinuation costs are HIGH!!! Retailer do not deduct what their cost was, but full retail PLUS a handling charge.
I HOPE the management has finally learned that going after every retail opportunity is WRONG! You outrun your sales with distribution and the costs can be devastating.....as they learned??
BUILD ON YOUR BASE!
That $15 is certainly possible....Earnings....final 3 announcement....Final defense contract.... increasing NICS....Battenfield contribution..... polymer contribution.....
EVERY qtr will be fun this year!
The "write down" is a "one-off". It is a one time, unusual hit on earnings and is treated as such.
It is why Buffet says "earnings are a fantasy, cash a reality". One offs are very popular today, with some companies having them EVERY qtr.
I believe refiners are very crude type specific. With the pipeline, we could replace heavy oil from Venezuela with the same type from Canada. Also at a lower cost, from a friend and stop supporting a dictatorship. We could then export higher margin, value added finished product.
I cannot wait for all the chemicals, low carbonation, and high cost! Plus I hope it is a really large machine for I have toooo much counter space.
Thanks for the info! Keep suing everyone on this!!!!
Good sign that the shorts are worried. I would be too. Can you imagine a good earnings?? Any partnerships have been on hold. It is going to be nothing but positive announcements!
- Too many retailers ...too quickly...they got ahead of their sales. Now losing the retailers they paid to get in. Hypothesis no - history yes. Cost to exit, not cheap, returns, markdowns, deductions, etc. Also IF they get huge, many more will drop as the product would be in convenient supermarkets and many current retailers would lose their "point of difference".
- Too many products - I understand different countries (I managed consumer in Europe). Now try in ONE country, the US. SKU's (my language) includes special packs. Note number of colors (you get back-ups at retail), bonus packs, club packs, and different models. Supply chain always will become sloppy with many moving parts. High OOS on top sellers and excess on slow items.
- Same with flavors. Ever try to get the same flavor twice? Consistent among retailers? Not even close. Trial packs, caps, etc. YES everything had a reason, just too many reasons.
- Superbowl - As the CEO of P&G stated a few years ago when cutting ALL spending against the consumer "it doesn't work as well as it did in the past". Ridiculous spend...but he learned and I would guess it won't happen again. They were right to hire a new social guy.
- New factory - Agreed - and its "yesterdays newspaper". May be good going forward, just not the pathI would have taken.
A&P - sensitive for me. Marketing always talks in "impressions". But today, you almost need to go viral to be effective. Trade yes - its required to a high degree. Consumer spending should be cut dramatically and pursue PR.
Consumer products are all about generating TRIAL. If you have a good product you get REPEAT. I believe they have better ways to generate trial.
Haven't been close to this stock in some time. Thinking of a buy at this level. THAT would be the kiss of death!
Disagree. Some examples:
- Entering too many new markets - high cost and discretionary
- Too many models - high cost of inventory, placing on shelves, and getting rid of old SKU's. Raises production costs & increases OOS's. Discretionary.
- New factory - many companies can build soda makers under license. For the margin difference, not worth the spend. discretionary.
- Super Bowl ads - DUH - a waste.
- Too many new retailers - there is a cost - build on your base first.
Seth - you lump ALL spending under A&P. Not the case. Also you lump all A&P as equal in character. Again not the case.
Theory is correct. Explanation is that they spend too much, unwisely, trying to buy business. AS Tilson states, if the cut spending significantly on marketing (they are not very good), they are a cash machine.
THAT will interest investors and other companies.