You don't really think Bavi has nay future as an anti-Hepatitis C drug, do you? GILD has Sovaldi, which genrates cures in a 12 week period for the vast majority of Hep C patients, and a competitor from AbbieVie/ENTA will soon be approved. Moreover, GILD has a new one pill a day pill treatment (Harvoni) for Hep C patients with chronic infection.
You say you did due diligence and then invested a lot of money in a company that had ZERO clinical data at the time and a horrid track record of misleading investors and hyping trivial or nonexistent data by using paid shills. That doesn't sound very smart.
Striperman, Excellent analysis. I just love seeing the stupidity and or manipulation of others playing out. I see people getting mad here, but PGNX i now in a good place and the low price is enticing me to think about buying more. Sorry to see I missed the low this morning.
eric, it was a material even for PGNX so there should be a CC to discuss it and tis imprecation. There should have also been a heads on on the pathway for Oral Relistor. I read one analysts say that sales for subcutaneous Relistor won't be as high as SLXP expects because Oral Relistor will be approved and cut into sales. How in the world does that hurt SLXP/PGNX?
Cafisherman, this approval was long time coming. The press releases aren't talking about the $40 million milestone that is coming to PGNX with the chronic pain indication approval so PGNX sure as hell should a CC bringing up this fact, along with a road-map for Oral Relistor approval.
I will also point out that a IMGN and MVDN are safer choices with smaller risk and smaller rewards, but it isn't bad to have them in your portfolio as well as the riskier ones I just mentioned.
d2foxes, as you might recall, I owned ONCY more than 5 years ago and bailed with only minor losses. Brad Thompson is a clueless CEO, and Reolysin was a very risky approach. That combination is toxic. I also stated I shifted to ONXX when I sold ONCY in the mid $3s, and gave the reasons why. I always respected your reasoned opinions and your clear, critical thinking when data was presented, and I see you are still at it.
Great point about drug trials being a scientific experiment. I can tell you from experience that many times I conduct an experiment with confidence at what the result would be, then being truly surprised at what the results were. Often the results to a much better understanding of the problem I am studying, am leads to new avenues of research.
I cringe when I see people talking about doubling down or something of the sort after bad news, especially when it is based on hope or blind devotion. I was hurt by that approach early in my biotech investing, and learned a very painful lesson. People need to spread their risk around, and adjust holdings periodically in all the stocks they hold. Rather than doubling down here, if one wants to find a risky stock that is down but has a chance for a nice potential reward down the road, consider some SNTA or EXEL.
I like reading about pre-clinical data that gives us more information about the Ganetespib's mechanism of anti-cancer activity. However, pre-clinical data on cell lines won't move the stock.
sbhatia12345, you wrote "Nktr was supposed to go to 16, it just had a tiny bump. Why would pgnx go higher. I would love it if it goes to 6.50"
Clearly you haven't looked closely at the difference between NKTR and PGNX. Do you want to know why PGNX will do better than NKTR? Well, I will tell you why. NKTR has a $1.7 billion market cap whereas PGNX has only a $360 million market cap. The fact that PGXN has a nearly 5x smaller market cap than NKTR means it will receive a much bigger boost. NKTR won't be launching their drug until sometime in the first half of 2015. In contrast, PGNX can immediately start selling Relistor upon FDA approval as the drug is already approval and a sales force is in place. PGNX will net a $40 million milestone for FDA approval of subcutaneous Relistor in chronic pain, which is more than 10% of its market cap. I don't know what milestones NKTR will get, but it sure as hell won't be more than 10% of is market cap. PGNX also has the prospect of another milestone of $50 million upon approval of the oral Relistor formulation. A completed phase III trial shows it works well and with a better side effect profile than the subcutaneous version. When the FDA grants label expansion of Relistor into the chronic pain market, PGNX and its shareholders should do well.
SLXP just received approval for a drug other than Relistor. As far as Relistor, the NKTR approval should remove any doubts about Relistor approval. Don't forget that will get PGNX a $40 million milestone. Looking forward to hearing how the FDA discussions on oral Relistor is going.
Oh, I see you now made a $3 price prediction. Good strategy doubling down when your previous prediction didn't come true.
ericknl22, you kept telling us SNTA would be at $3.50. What happened?