Strategy: Buy DRIP on the dips. Lower lows, higher highs. It is in a "SUPER CONTANGO" ascending triangle, get on for the ride on the dips. I played this at $55, $81, and $85. A very good living I might add. Oil and energy are in SUPER CONTANGO, stock market is headed there. Be a pessimist and you will be well rewarded, this is better than a medical degree or even a neurosurgeon specialty.
I missed the bottom at 82 but got in at 85, nice clean 41 points.
The Nov-Dec bottom was 50, this one the buy the dip oil crowd got slammed with Chevron's divvy cut, so it didn't go below. This is a prime example of an ASCENDING TRIANGLE. You definitely want to play this, as DRIP makes new higher lows and higher highs, play the cycle. OIL is crashing, SUPER CONTANGO, so is the stock markets, everything, Shorting is your only safe way to invest, short everything on "HAPPY TALK" "FED WON"T HIKE ANYMORE", "ECONOMY IS TANKING RATES WILL DROP".......................................not a good bet to be positive on anything.
I missed the bottom at 82 but got in at 85, nice clean 15 pointer. The Nov-Dec bottom was 50, this one the buy the dip oil crowd got slammed with Chevron's divvy cut, so it didn't go below. This is a prime example of an ASCENDING TRIANGLE. You definitely want to play this, as DRIP makes new higher lows and higher highs, play the cycle. OIL is crashing, SUPER CONTANGO, so is the stock markets, everything, Shorting is your only safe way to invest, short everything on "HAPPY TALK" "FED WON"T HIKE ANYMORE", "ECONOMY IS TANKING RATES WILL DROP".......................................not a good bet.
RATES WILL RISE, stocks will fall, the wealth transfer will continue, lower highs lower lows, trade the cyclic movements. DRIP is going to be real nice.
TBT is looks very tempting, as the flight to safety is still on. This is only tradeable, nothing is buy and hold.
In his letter, Klarman, like many fund managers who look at market internals and recognize the odd correlations and fragile underpinnings, isn’t happy when he sees overt manipulation regardless of the source. This manipulation has led to a moral hazard of sorts:
We have long believed that the choice to manipulate interest rates to near zero would not be without its consequences; indeed, these are now becoming more apparent. Under quantitative easing (QE), the Fed has purchased an unprecedented 61% of all Treasurys issued while nearly quintupling the size of its balance sheet, raising a legitimate question about the artificiality of today’s bond prices. Compounding the problem, near-zero rates have driven a worldwide hunt for yield, and many have found it, or thought they had, in junk bonds, the MLP space, and alternative investments.
This is the problem in today’s market environment, Klarman notes, one that is “leading to lower lending standards, eroding credit quality, diminishing returns, and excessive risk taking.” Such issues, if they remain un-addressed, will come back to bit the markets in the future.
Klarman the risk manager is noting excessive risk taking in the market as a result of quantitative easing.
Dr. Klump - "Always stay in touch with the TRUTH, always know when you are high". If you don't you could do some serious damage to you wealth.
I've posted since then. I am stalking DRIP, letting the "Buy the Dip Boys" do their thing like in Nov. - Dec. oil rally. I got in at low 50's, that is a key area you want to load up, but wait for my call on this. Inventories are rising, usage is dropping, China is slowing, ...........i.e..........OIL IS GOING LOWER.
We are in a descending contango triangle......just like the mortgage REIT's for the past 2 years. Sharp rallies on lower volume higher after very high volume sell-offs. Play the descending triangles, the buy the dip and slope of hope is your only friends here, if you want to make safe profits with not exposure to your principle.
DRIP dropped like this before all the way down to 50, it is an ULTRA SHORT like TBT.
I knew what I wanted to do three years ago, two years ago, a year ago, six months ago, 3 months ago, 2 months ago, 1 month ago, 3 weeks ago, 2 weeks ago, 1 week ago, 2 days ago, last night, this morning..............I am shorting DECLINE RELATED stocks, I am shorting Mortgage REIT's on any happy time rallies, I am shorting Oil related stocks a.k.a. DRIP, on every rally and happy-talk rallies, IT IS JUST PLAIN SIMPLE MIDWESTERN COMMON SENSE.
I HAVE ALWAYS BEEN NEGATIVE ON M-REITS since April of 2013 or when AGNC went over $30, I started to sell on rallies for short term gains, AND THERE HAS BEEN A BOUNTIFUL DISPLAY OF SUCCULENT GAINS OVER THE PAST THREE YEARS. Shorting mortgage REIT's has provided my family a table of plenty, new cars every year, trips to Florida 3-4 per year, Gourmet Restaurants for breakfast lunch and dinner, this has been one of the most plentiful times in my life, I have never been so economically happy, I am in a happiness stock bubble.
Buy the dip dumb money will rally oil, just like in November - December, when DRIP was driven down to 50, I will repeat the process again. I sold out not at $192 yesterday, I took a phone call from my brother, by the time I got off it was down to $172. My cost was 52 + 72 on two lots. I believe I will do this two more times before Independence Day July 4.
You can't say no one told you. Check out my post when it first hit $36, QUOTE "THIS IS ONE OF THE BEST SHORTS EVER", I also said you can short it at $33 and even gave a timeline of its descent to $15, it was a linear descending triangle down, which I determined from past MREIT boom times, the 1970's, 1980's, 1990's. Use historical data to analyze where you are in the investment life cycle. Every stock investment story, every investment has a life cycle, nothing grows without fertilizer and water and other nutrients, the same applies to stocks, there is a conception stage, a fast growth stage, a mature stage, a very old decline stage and the eventual end. It is humanity front and center, everything revolves around a cycle, a life cycle.
There are four psychological stages that people go through during a bear market. Right now, investors know the market is struggling but most believe it will come back. In fact, many see this as a buying opportunity. Here are the four stages:
Stage 1: Denial
Right now, we’re in the denial stage. Anyone who is bullish is too stubborn to change his or her view. Many people have their head in the sand, and some may not even look at their January statements. Many believe the market will come back. Right now, many are still buying the dips, which does not work in a bear market. This is similar to what has happened to oil.
Stage 2: High Anxiety
In this stage, many investors are like a deer in the headlights. They are frozen and nervous but don’t do anything. They are told by brokers and financial experts to stay calm and don’t panic. We haven’t reached this stage yet.
Stage 3: Fear
In this stage, the rampant bulls finally realize they are in trouble. If they have bought stocks on margin, they might be getting calls from their broker to add money to losing positions. In this stage, they are watching in fear as their portfolio burns. They reluctantly start to take action as fear increases. Often they say to themselves, “When my stock gets back to even, I will sell.”
Stage 4: Panic
This is what I call the “uncle” stage. This is when panicked investors throw in the towel and take action. They want to get out of the market while they still have something left. At this stage, there is huge downside volume and double-digit declines on the indexes. At the end of Stage 4, many people vow to never buy stocks again. We are not even close to this stage yet. Typically, we hit bottom when investors capitulate after losses of 20% to 50% in their stock portfolios.
Chinese stock bubble of 2007 27 Feb 2007 The SSE Composite Index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange tumbles 9% from unexpected selloffs, the largest drop in 10 years, triggering major drops in worldwide stock markets.
United States bear market of 2007–09 11 Oct 2007 Till June 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 all experienced declines of greater than 20% from their peaks in late 2007. On September 16, 2008, failures of large financial institutions in the United States, due primarily to exposure of securities of packaged subprime loans and credit default swaps issued to insure these loans and their issuers, rapidly devolved into a global crisis resulting in a number of bank failures in Europe and sharp reductions in the value of equities (stock) and commodities worldwide.
European sovereign debt crisis 27 April 2010 Standard & Poor's downgrades Greece's sovereign credit rating to junk four days after the activation of a €45-billion EU–IMF bailout, triggering the decline of stock markets worldwide and of the Euro's value, and furthering a European sovereign debt crisis.
2010 Flash Crash 6 May 2010 The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffers its worst intra-day point loss, dropping nearly 1,000 points before partially recovering.
August 2011 stock markets fall 1 Aug 2011 Stock markets around the world plummet during late July and early August, and are volatile for the rest of the year.
2015 Chinese stock market crash 12 June 2015 China stock market crash starts in June and continues into July and August.
In January 2016, Chinese stock market experiences a steep sell-off which sets off a global rout.
2016 THE GREAT STOCK CRASH, 4 January 2016. The first 10 days of Janaury recorded the worst first 10 day performance of stock market averages ever in 2,000 year history of the World. The US stock markets experience unrelenting steep sell-off which sets off a global rout with an ending that can't be seen out to infinity.
Timing doesn't really mean anything, it is the variables being measured. The variables are many and the systems are complex, just like 1920's, 1930's, 1940's, etc.
Some Key Variables that are applicable for 1920's and 2010's.
Credit Policy: Both Private and Public was very easy for very prolonged periods. Margin debt soared, asset bubbles grew without any correction for 7-8 years, both time periods.
Accounting Standards: Were relaxed so that capital raising boomed through stocks sales and stock buybacks. Both broke records on the upside along with stock market averages.
Regulations were relaxed to benefit Big Banks & Wall Street. Wealth became concentrated in the top 2% and the 98% were practically left behind and treaded water
What is strikingly apparent, is the last 7-8 years Central Bank Policy is exactly similar to what they had in 1922 - 1929.
All Central Bank distortions to free markets, anywhere in the world always end in a HISTORY MAKING CRASH...........this is dogma over 500 maybe 1000 years old.
Are you buying any of the Ultra short funds. I went big into DRIP at 52 and 73, it hit 190, not bad for 5-7 weeks work. It close 30 dollars off the high, it is unbelievable. I believe tomorrow it will pop over $200, maybe 220. Lots of money in these ultra short energy funds.
He restores my losses with recommendations for quick gains, i.e., DRIP; He guides me in the paths of righteousness For His name's sake. Even though I walk through the valley of a never ending bear market, I fear no loss, for You are always providing me with quick returns; Your knowledge and Your wit, they comfort me. You prepare a table of recommendations that provides more than I will ever need; You have anointed me with a short on oil; My cup overflows.…....as we pass the $200 mark.
History can provide a clue to possible outcomes. I use past historical data as an essential part of my algorithms for evaluation and decision making on investment strategies. What I have deduced over the past 2 years is the bear markets I list here are the most likely outcomes for this distortion to free markets. It is going to feel like "Bear Markets to Infinity" very similar to the self-embracing feedback system of "Zero Percent Interest Rates to Infinity".
Right now, the balancing system is in progress with a self-embracing feedback "Sell Everything to find the free market pricing".
9/3/29 – 7/8/32,
Recession: 8/29 – 3/33
The Great Depression (no surprise here).
3/10/37 – 3/31/38
Recession: 5/37 – 6/38
Government austerity and tax increases caused a jump in unemployment, or the monetary supply expanded too rapidly. Economists disagree on the causes. I'm as shocked as you!
11/9/38 – 4/11/39
The herd was skittish.
9/12/39 – 4/28/42
World War II.
3/10/37 – 4/28/42*
Recession: 5/37 – 6/38
Why merge, just buy up all the stock at the liquidations and bankruptcy, in fact, the government may help with free loans to take over a mortgage REIT. Here is a fact that I presented here on this board, 3 years ago, when I talked about the history of mortgage REIT's going all the way back to President Eisenhower's administration. If past history is any clue, WHICH I THINK IT IS, the most money will be made at liquidation time, where the stock goes to 6 cents and the REIT is bought by a C-corporation that will transfer the capital loss carryover, the MREIT's with 10 X leverage will have 10 times more capital loss than the original equity, which you can buy for 6 cents a share and get $200+ in capital loss carryover, in the 39.5% +3.8% NIIM tax for obamacare = 43.3% time $200 = $86.60, by golly this is a lot better than the 400% increase in six weeks in my DRIP ultra short energy fund.
So you are saying exactly what I predicted back in May at the top of the market, we are headed into SUPER CONTANGO, where everything goes down due to Central Bank distortion of a free economy. It is not that bleak.......THE BIG POSITIVE......is we are going to "FREE MARKETS" were assets are repricing to "Real Value" not the fake statistics. Inflation at 1.60%, guess again, it rose from 8% to 8.5%, the real stats, based on the way is was measured in 1980. I guess you missed the most important part of the MESSAGE from the FED, they are changing the CPI to reflect reality, this will be done slowly over 2-3 years, but this quarter they have added Health Care costs/inflation to the measure, this should bring the measure from 1.6% to 3.6% maybe even 5% after this year massive increases in health insurance (the insurers are reporting massive drops in profits, due to costs of insuring everyone which included a lot of very sick people), hence INFLATION IS SOARING. So is wage inflation at the lower levels, as 90 million baby boomers retire, there is a huge vacuum of skilled trained people, hence the disruption will result in the free market to severely raise wages, such as retail, restaurant workers, etc..... THE GIANT WEALTH TRANSFER has started.....watch for 50 cents a gallon gasoline (no lead) coming soon. Texas is already down to $1.50. DRIP, ULTRA SHORT ENERGY, is my biggest investment, it hit $198, up from $52 on Dec. 1, I predicted it would hit $150 this week and then changed and upped the target to $200. I have to change again, I expect $250 by Friday.
Update on the Double Digit Swimsuit Edition list of Ultra Short Energy etf's.
Todays Performance so far:
DRIP IS MY FAVORITE.........at 50 right before Xmas, I told my family this one could go to $500 by Memorial Day, 2016, for a 10 Bagger, if, a BIG IF, if SUPER CONTANGO in energy occurs, which I predicted. Hence, it is occurring, the results will be ugly and may throw the economy in recession latter this year or early next year. Lots of liquidations. All this was caused by distortion to the economy of "ZERO PERCENT" interest rates, which was left way too long 7 years of massive distortion.
Headed to $10. The fundamentals are not good here. WE ARE IN FULL SUPER CONTANGO. The best bets are energy ULTRA SHORT FUNDS, like DRIP, up 17% today and 190% since mid-December. You can make all you money back going into DRIP today in the next 6-12 months as the Oil Industry goes into FULL BLOWN CONTANGO. Exxon, Chevron all the ron's are going to single digits, they have been held up by long time investors, buying the dips and spurring rallies, like the one we had before December. Any rallies in oil, you should go into ULTRA SHORT ENERGY ETF'S.
You have got to have screws loose if you invest in high yield, liquidations coming.
That is the number one place to be. Loaded up at 50-55 before Xmas and added some in the 70's. Up over 20 today. This is going to $200, previously I said it was going to $150, I have dynamically reviewed my algorithms and now expect $200 in next several weeks. Oil is heading down in SUPER CONTANGO along with all materials.