When do you think oil will bottom. Some experts Schilling, say $29/barrel next year some time. When and how low.
I want exposure to Russia. Putin is brilliant, and in the economic war with USA, we will loose. Russia is superior economically and militarily. The have no deficit. The have natural resources and their debt to GDP is a smallest of all the large countries. Ours is 300%+, Europe is 500%+, theirs is 1% maybe not even that. The have enormous cash reserves and gold reserves and oil and natural resources. The USA has no cash reserves or gold, only debt and more debt. How long can the oil industry last at $20 per barrel oil.....the oil industry is levered and loaded with debt in a zero rate environment, to service the debt the little guys have to pump and drill for more oil, not less. So the Big Oil companies will have to survive on the cash reserves to tide them over, but who is going to cut production with so much debt to service. The only way is BK or default in USA. Russia is winning the oil war and I want to invest everything on a SURE WINNER. Any ideas on an etf with Russian debt exposure would be appreciated, but I think all the Billionaire's have corner the market in Russian Debt. Oh, the Ruble has recovered 30% in the past few days, Putin is a genius, that was a real good one to bet for a quick buck right before Xmas.
Are you still buying the Canadian ETF with interest rates getting ready to soar. GDP is 5%, 4th quarter could be 7%, we might have runaway interest rates to upside from here and inflation. Liz A. Sonders, Charles Schwab just put out an inflation alert today.
PS, I forgot to tell you, if you invest in Russia, in 2-3 years, I will probably bump into you with my Yacht, The Popeye Three, out of Miami, when I am meeting my Russian friends in Havana, at the local McDonald's for a Senior Coffee, with unlimited refills. I mean, this is a goldmine, you will never have to work or experience any physical labor for the rest of your life. Dreams do come true, for those who have the patience, the education and the capital to take advantage of them.
Look into Russian Stocks (RSX) or Greek stock etf;'s, I like Russia, because they have a smart CEO, named Putin. The guy is a mathematical and economic genius, my opinion. I think Russia is a better investment than Apple or Google or Facebook or anything we have, these will all be down over next 2 years, Russian stocks will be up on average 300% in next 3 years. Pure oil play here and you get to lock in a 17% annual yield on their debt while you wait. This is almost like the early 1980's when Treasury rates were over 15% -16% and the DOW as down 60% from its 1979-80 high, you just couldn't loose buying the average stock in 1982 and locking in a treasury note at 16% for 10 years. This is the same situation in Russia. Go Ruskies.......!
90% right on everything. Russian stocks are getting near climax selling. RSX is the etf, if it goes below $10 load up, you get a 4.5% divvy and 100% upside in a reflex rally by March, 2015. That is 105% return in 3 mos., or annualized is 420% per year.
Same to you, times two. Speaking of two's, check out TWO, I think they are better than AGNC if you have to own one of these during rising rates. Natural gas prices just nosedived recently, check that out. Russian Market Vector etf, is down big this year, RSX is the symbol, I am watching this to go below $10 and may go heavily into Russian stocks through this vector. I would rather be LONG Putin, than Obama, if you know what I mean. No debt versus mega-debt Ponzi, distorted bubble, suspension of mark to market, Enron like accounting. When you check a Ruskie balance sheet, it is almost pristeen, squeaky clean.....remember, during commie times, anyone that cheated, misstated earnings or played with Ponzi schemes were executed by firing squad, oh, they still are, I sleep very well buying Mother Russian stocks at 80% off, with double digit divys'
I like to be right. If you are a senior, you can not afford to loose equity or principle. Stay safe. Wait for the crash to fair value. THE YIELD SPREAD trade is very dangerous due to mortgage convexity. I was talking to a banker and they are getting ready to get mortgages back to 5.5-6.5% next year as Children of the Baby Boomers start to buy homes again. There is a wave, a tsunami wave of mortgages coming which will slowly rise in 2015, pick up some in 2016 and then continuously increase from 2017 - 2027, as the Children of Baby Boomers repeat their parents spending patterns. Demographics at work. During this time, stock prices will plummet (Based on Demographics and the FED's own forecasts), as retiree's sell stocks to live off IRA's, 401(k)'s, and annuities and children of baby boomers sell their investments and inheritances to pay for family formations and houses, medical bills, diapers, education, etc. for their kids. Lots of changes coming, just be cognizant so you don't get hurt, be ignorant and simple, you will get hurt. Not necessary at all.
The 5% GDP revision to 3rd quarter increases the likelihood for a rate increase. Also, the reaction by stock markets going higher will also increase an earlier increase in interest rates. As time ticks away, the FED also has to take into account the data that shows the STOCK MARKETS are overpriced by 100%, meaning the PE ratios could be cut in half, the SF FED just released their forecast that stocks will loose on average 50% over the immediate future about 3 years. Hence, which year is it likely......2015, 2016 or 2017......2016 is an election year. Past history shows FED doesn't like raising rates 12 mos. before the election, so I think 2015 is the best time the earlier the better to prevent any problems come this fall. I think Feb -Mar. we could have the first increase, very plausible. If stock markets continue irrationally higher, it could come sooner to prevent a SUPER BUBBLE from forming, which is really dangerous, like 1999-2000, the MOTHER OF ALL BUBBLES.
Demographics, the drugstores will attract the senior baby boomers and they should have a department for specialty Geezer clothing, such as padded senior garments and garments with built-in diapers. Oh, I forgot, how about them Designer Adult Bikini Diapers for 65+ folks. And don't forget those Duck Dynasty ball caps with built-in hair pieces, etc. Lots of opportunities to grow. And don't forget those portable potties for seniors, the ones you strap to your leg with a catheter tube so you don't have to make a pit stop while driving or shopping or long trips.
Leather Uppers, plaid leather, were $69, today $9.99, and I used a coupon. I get some really good buy in specials and clearance here, nobody else can compete at these prices for such quality.
In their modeling, the San Francisco Fed said stock prices are overvalued due to FED distortion of interest rates and could be cut in half soon. As rates go back to normal for Baby Boomers retirement, equity prices could get cut in half. Demographics and stock prices are highly correlated so is oil prices. We have seen the start of the correction in oil prices as baby boomers move into retirement full-time. There will be a harvesting of equity gains and a rotation into fixed income as more and more people move into retirement.
This is no joke, $1.00 or under gas by Easter and maybe $.50/gal. of gas by Memorial Day. Deflation is good, just talking about this makes me feel real good. Don't fill up you snowblower gas can until the first snow, gas prices will be lower. I would hold back on buying anything now, everything will be coming down in price since transportation costs is a large part of the retail prices of almost everthing.
Oil can be correlated with a lot of other data. One set of data is S&P earnings downgrades and debt downgrades of Energy Companies. Look for earnings estimates dropping 50% or more, depending on the amount of leverage everyone is using, it will be more bigger hit to earnings. SOMETHING else to consider, big energy hides a lot of intangibles during the good years to goose earnings while people are desperately overpaying for stocks or rising PE multiples expanding. When earnings get taken down from poor pricing markets, then good CEO's will write off all the intangibles they have accumulated in the year they won't make maximum bonus. Hence, when prices do recover they get an even bigger bonus and stockholders get even more % increase in earnings from the previous year. THIS IS ALL SO PREDICTABLE.
The spread is tightening, back on Nov. 26, I warned about a dividend cut in general for Agency REIT's, based on the 2, 3 and 5 year U.S Treasury yields stubborning rising month by month. This indicates that we are getting closer to the FED FUND rate increase. If you are investing, just be aware of correlations and downward price potential from rising rates. In this case, AGENCY REIT's are not recommended for buy and hold. You should be using a strategy to minimize your exposure to principle loss by being long the stock after the ex div. date or div. announcement dates where cuts are announced. I would not hold AGNC for the divvy, rather, buy at lows when markets go down, like last week in the 21.xx area and sell at $22.50 for a .40-1.00 gain, which is actually better than the .22 div. and you are not exposed to principle loss as much.
Looks like I was right again, and it was 3-4 weeks ago. Spread is tightening something ferociously. Very bad for mortgage reits. Divy's will get cut.
With 2 M-reits cutting their divvy's recently, I think there is risk here that AGNC will cut to .17-.18 soon. The stock price could take a haircut down to 18-20 area with divvy cut. I would not hold this to ex div. date, sell now and buy back later after divvy is paid.
Short Energy is my Christmas wish for everyone. XOM, RDS, and BP all have their 2015 earnings estimates cut by S&P, and estimated PE's are 30 - 40, way too high. Excellent shorts. Or you can buy ERY on any energy rallies or short covering rallies, like now which is $20 down from $27. Smarties got in at $12 and sold at $26 and am looking to get in below $18 again, I was hoping today, maybe tomorrow. Shorting energy is the only sure bet today, every other strategy is too risky. Look at ARR, cut their divvy today, not the only M-REIT to do so.