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American Electric Power Co., Inc. Message Board

dr_klumps 226 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 30, 2015 4:54 PM Member since: May 2, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Hard Negative Alert - Full Blown Contango!

    by dr_klumps Nov 12, 2015 3:57 PM
    dr_klumps dr_klumps Nov 30, 2015 4:54 PM Flag

    Ditto for December 2015

  • Even though interest rates, as measured by the 10 year treasury, continue to slowly tick higher, quality preferred stock issues are in high demand. When looking at investment grade preferred issues we see that they have moved higher by 2% over the last month or so. The junkier preferred issues are generally down-this includes those issued by shipping companies, upstream MLPs and a few of the junkier REITS.

    A move to quality is what we are seeing in the preferred markets--quality is trumping the minor moves higher in interest rates. Honestly this is no surprise to us--we have been harping the quality mantra for months. There is a pall hanging over world economic conditions--forget the constant march higher in common stocks, while the ride is nice there are so many potential 'black swan' events around every corner only perfection (or maybe a gaggle of Wall Street crooks and thieves) will power common stocks much higher.

    Income investors continue on the hunt for yield--this never ends and quality preferreds have benefited. Utilities don't fill the bill so well--they have an average yield in the 3.75% area and you are left with plenty of risk. REITs do fill the bill quite well, but there is a tremendous amount of price risk as they were off today by 1% even though the SP500 was up 1/4%. Unfortunately for REITs, investors pound the prices lower each time interest rates rise--even though the rise today was a measly 3 basis points. We have noticed this trend for months now--REITs are overly sensitive to interest rate moves. Make no mistake though that we are not saying REITs are immune from higher interest rate caused damage--we are just saying that good REITs will not be fundamentally harmed by rates that are 1/8% or 1/4% higher.

    So what is one to do right know? Mostly nothing--as usual. If contemplating new investments one should focus on Klumps strategy of tactical trading until a sharp sell-off emerges.

  • dr_klumps by dr_klumps Nov 24, 2015 5:29 PM Flag

    Hello, its me
    I have a present
    For Nick and Mareee!
    Its TBT at 44
    It can go to 54
    By Christmas Eve
    Hello, is anyone there
    I keep trying to bring
    Presents under the Messageboard Tree
    Hello, its Santa Yellen
    With a Rate Hike for Everyoneya.

    After basing in the 42-43 area, TBT recently broke out to 46-47 area on the strong jobs report and news that December rate hike is 75-90% certain. There is a case to buy this at 43-44 area for a nice Christmas trade to 54, implying a 10 point increase or 20% xmas gift for all of my followers.

  • Reply to

    I would SELL into this Rally Today !

    by dr_klumps Nov 16, 2015 2:10 PM
    dr_klumps dr_klumps Nov 24, 2015 5:05 PM Flag

    Ditto for todays rise. We have very weak rallies and much stronger declines. I see no support and with a Interest Rate Hike under the Xmas tree, I simply see more selling and new lows. This stock is in a long term 3+ year bearish downtrend with no base yet.


  • Since, 9/9/2012, AGNC went from $36.49 in a Classic Bearish Trend. A 'bear' trend where the market is continually falling, interrupted by only weak rises. If you analyze my trend channels you will six "Descending Triangles since 9/9/2012. I will define them here, Date Range, Strong Drops interrupted by weak rises, six distinct descending triangles, all sloped down.
    9/9/12 - 12/21/12 : -7.49, +4.12
    3/10/13 - 6/2/13 : -12.36, +3.29
    10/20/13 - 12/23/13: -4.84, +4.52
    6/15/14 - 9/28/14: -4.55, +1.32
    11/17/14 - 6/28/15: -2.16, +______

    I do not think a weak rise of $1.00 will be attained this time. The stock is dropping actually a lot more pronounced recently, 6/15/14 period -4.55/+1.32 = 3.4
    -2.16/.75 = 3.0

    This is definitely a Bearish Downward Trend. Where will this end. The stock is trying to find a trading channel when value investors will buy for the intermediate to long term. So far this is only being bought by short term traders, hoping to outsmart a falling knife trend.

    2012: -7.49
    2013: -12.36 + -4.84 = -17.26
    2014: -4.55

    This geometric progression leads me to analyze algorithmically, what mathematical channel built on real investing dogma that the stock price could drop to. It points to $4.00 a share (add up the 4 years of negs. -7.49, -17.26,-4.55,-2.16 and subtract from the High 36.49. This equates to .35 div/$4.00 pr = 3.8% yield, this would indicate no leverage and the yield would be close to the 30 yr treasury yield.

  • dr_klumps by dr_klumps Nov 20, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    Hello, it's Klumps
    I was wondering after these 2 years you'd like to here from me
    To go over everything I said & predicted
    They say that time's supposed to heal capital losses
    But I ain't done much healing as the losses just continya
    Hello, can you hear me?
    I'ts Klumps dreaming about my Strong Sell at 36 ya
    When we were younger and much higher
    I've forgotten how it felt at 36 the world fell to 17
    There's such a difference between us now
    From 36 to 17....Its just not the same
    Hello from the other side of the curve
    I must've messageboarded a thousand times
    To tell you to sell, sell,
    For everything that I've done
    But when I message you never respond
    Seems stupid to be (be)
    Hello are we at the lower level or ground
    At least I can say that we've enjoyed th
    To tell you I'm very bearish
    For breaking your heart
    But it don't matter, its clearly
    Plain to see a rate hike present under the Christmas Tree
    Hello, how are you?
    It's so typical of me to talk success, I'm sorry
    I hope that you're well
    Did you ever make it out of that aweful Mortgage REIT
    Where nothing ever happened?
    It's no secret
    That M-Reits are going down,
    And running out of time
    So hello from the other side of the curve
    I must've repeated this a thousand times (thousand times)
    To tell you Interest Rates are rising
    For everything that I've done
    But when I send a message you never
    Seem to be home
    Hello from the other side of the curve
    At least I can say that I've tried (I've tried)
    To tell you to sell this on strength
    For breaking your heart
    But it don't matter, its clearly
    Plain to see a rate hike present under the Christmas Tree
    Ooooohh, anymore
    Ooooohh, anymore
    Ooooohh, anymore
    Anymore than one rate hike in our happy new year
    Hello from the other side of the curve
    I must've repeated this a thousand time (thousand times)
    To tell you rates are rising
    And its bad for Mortgage REIT's
    For everything that I've done
    But when I message you never
    Seem to respond.....the elevator is going down!

  • Sell this looser on any rallies like today, take the tax loss and wait for market correction. When it corrects, buy a good company with good growth, management in a rising rate rising inflation environment. Like ABBV, Abbvie, I loaded up at $48 a few weeks ago, 5% yield, divvy raise 15-20% per year. Demographics in these guys favor. And there good at getting approval of Pharma Cure Drugs. Don't treat the symptons, cure the disease. I like these guys of all the health care and you get 4-5% yield plus growth.

  • In past terror attacks, the markets are always lower months after the attacks. Looking for a reason to sell at the topping of a 7 year old bull market is just too great here. I have to PUT A BIG SELL on todays rally.

  • dr_klumps dr_klumps Nov 16, 2015 2:08 PM Flag

    If they don't raise, that will show the terrorists are winning. Remember, the FED is OZZ, they will raise rates and say everything is well and getting better, including Pres. O's foreign policy strategy. The illusion will continue. Inflation is back it always has been here, the OZZ will just point out the GARGANTUAN auto contracts just signed. MMA are yield 1.4 = 1.5% at select bank manager specials for big time customers, I just got one and they are offering up to $1,000 new account bonuses.

  • Reply to

    Real Inflation Rate hits 8%

    by dr_klumps Nov 4, 2015 3:11 PM
    dr_klumps dr_klumps Nov 16, 2015 2:03 PM Flag

    You love McDonald's stock, food, the circuses of the fast food experience. I love to go there, wifi, senior coffee 50 cents watch the big screen TV, and get an egg mcmuffin. I love it. But I don't own the stock now. I did way back when stock was undervalued and average double digit appreciation. MCD got too big, can't deliver double digit growth, hence, they are raising the divvy to make up, without much success.

    Jan 1, 2012 MCD was $100.35, divvy .70/qtr.

    Nov 16, 2015, MCD at 110.60, divvy .85/gtr.

    ,70, 77, .81, .85 increases per year for 4 years,

    Div. Yields: 2.8%, 3.0%, 3.2%, 3.4%
    Ann Cap Gain: 10%/4 yrs = 2.5%/yr

    Avg. Div Yield: 3.1%
    Ann. Cap Gain: 2.5%

    TOTAL: 5.6%

    Not keeping up with the real inflation rate of 8%. Buy and Hold folk are exposed to distorted market correction. When markets correct after FED normalizes interest rates, MCD could yield 8% and experience a Bear Market Low of $42-45 per share. This could also happen if sales turn down and they miss quarterly profits from some geo-political event like 9/11/2001.

    Right now you don't want to buy and hold and hope for the best. You are at a market top. Only "High Value" tactical maneuvers are safe, like my BUY of ABBV at 48 on the Pharma sell-off and take profits at 64 two weeks later. This actually was yielding 4.9% divvy at 48 based on the new divvy rate they announced. ABBV 33% cap gain if you sold at 64. If still holding, you have 25% cap gain and a 5% divvy in Dec Ex date, about 30%. If you are going to take risk, use analysis with real facts, not made up stochastics by brokers and others and use a Tactical Approach to insure minimal exposure to a distorted market and double digit gains. This is not a game, it is actually investment War, I take no losses, I only have gains and Victory Celebrations. Like my "Short M-REIT" tactical strategy two years ago and still going.

  • Reply to

    Real Inflation Rate hits 8%

    by dr_klumps Nov 4, 2015 3:11 PM
    dr_klumps dr_klumps Nov 16, 2015 1:29 PM Flag

    Don't switch the subject. We were arguing the rate of inflation. You are saying it is close to 0 - 2%. Which I said that is a made up stochastic to fool the masses by the Governments around the world. The real rate is 8%. That is the burden rate academia in economics and finance use in micro and macro economics. Get the picture. These analysis and all the bullish stock reports are made up stochastics to get the public to buy into the bullishness and to pay a higher price. Pro's use deterministic analysis with real facts. All the IPO's that came out, including the multiple SPO's by M-REIT's played the same game. Produce a lot of analysis showing inflation is zero forever and rates are zero for even and you will get swarms of pigeons to buy billions of stock at inflated distorted prices. The same thing is done by retailers on Black Friday Specials, $499 all solid stainless carving set, that can slice a tomato, cut rebar and stay sharp for ever, remember the prod. demo at Costco's last Holiday season, buy it for $99.99 black Friday Special. The same thing is in dollar stores for $9.99 today.

  • dr_klumps dr_klumps Nov 12, 2015 6:14 PM Flag

    NO. Further pain is ahead, we may test $10 in 2016-2017 period.

  • Reply to

    Hard Negative Alert - Full Blown Contango!

    by dr_klumps Nov 12, 2015 3:57 PM
    dr_klumps dr_klumps Nov 12, 2015 6:13 PM Flag

    The S&P Index experienced a head and shoulders reversal
    pattern with the peak closing price.The downward sloping Index
    Moving Average Trend Line is forecasting a negative
    stock market outlook, which will cause the
    stock market to fall precipitously from the current levels,
    during the next two years leading into 2017, testing the lows of
    2009 market bottoms.

    Requires Tactical Strategy Now to take profits, raise cash and trade
    air pockets and elevator ride down movements, like I did with ABBV from 48 to 64 in 10 days..

    The correct strategy to maximize profits during a Stage 1:
    Mark-Down – Downtrend is to abandon a long-short market
    neutral strategy appropriate during Stage 4: Distribution –
    Topping or Rounding Over (which we just left) and only be short equities, please
    wait for the correct common stock shorting procedure after further
    breakdown in moving average support levels confirm my tactical forecast.

    I keep you posted of these historic events.

  • Reply to

    Real Inflation Rate hits 8%

    by dr_klumps Nov 4, 2015 3:11 PM
    dr_klumps dr_klumps Nov 12, 2015 6:01 PM Flag

    There is no deflation except for temporary bubbles popping, which eventually recover. But the basics food, taxes, rent, home prices, insurance all types, labor cost are starting to rise double digits both at the low end and the top end. Remember the minimum wage at $6 something 5 years ago. It is now $15 - 26/hr in many many cities. Costco lowest wage is $22 in the Chicago area, five years ago it was $10. Shadow stats show a 40-50% increase in the REAL COST OF LIVING for the past 5 years, those are actually facts. The gov. stochastics are made up with adjustments to come up with a ficticious low amount to keep organized labor and government benefit cost manageable. This is not creativity, THIS IS REALITY.

  • Reply to

    Good month for American Capital Agency

    by stockdude13 Nov 12, 2015 5:12 PM
    dr_klumps dr_klumps Nov 12, 2015 5:48 PM Flag

    Past history says that discount to book of levered entities in a rising interest rate environment should be 40%. That is what is averaged the last two times FED went into raise mode. I would chop off another 17% here for a fair value analysis.

  • Everybody pauses and criticize me
    For being to simple as you can see
    I don't know just who to blame for this catastrophe!
    But my one wish on Christmas Eve is as plain as it can be!

    All I want for Christmas
    is Two Interest Rate Hikes,
    My two interest rate hikes,
    see my two interest rate hikes!

    Gee, if I could only
    have my two interest rate hike,
    then I could wish everyone
    "Merry Christmas."
    It seems so long since I was sure,
    "Janet Yellen was moving to raise!"
    Gosh oh gee, how happy I'd be,
    if I could only get a couple rate hikes by Christmas.

    All I want for Christmas
    is my two interest rate hikes,
    my two interest rate hikes,
    and many more to follow in the New Year.

    Happy Holidays

    Klumpty Dumpty says to Dump stock and raise cash before the great big fall.

  • Reply to

    Real Inflation Rate hits 8%

    by dr_klumps Nov 4, 2015 3:11 PM
    dr_klumps dr_klumps Nov 12, 2015 5:29 PM Flag

    I like to deal with reality when I am doing a valuation analysis. Bull Markets are loaded with all types of A....Z stochastics to show that stocks are going higher. But a professional will always deal with real numbers and real estimates, not temporary stochastics that fuel a bull market. Hence, my real analysis pinpointed overvaluation, such as in pharma and health care stocks. Almost every industry now is infected with massive distortion. As one industry after another fall to "Contango" and then "Super Contango", real value will be attained. Right now almost everything is over valued by 60-90%. Valeant Pharmaceutical is an example of the "Bull Stochastics" are unraveling. The stock is down from $270's to 60"s and headed lower. The S&P has $12 estimated earnings for 2016, but real a real "Klumpty Dumpty" analysis says 80-90% lower. Remember, use the real inflation rate of 8% as your discount rate not the 2% published by the gov. to fool all the Soc Sec rubes and the union folk.

  • A hard negative market alert was put out to select clients of a brokerage. It said in general, the markets are very dangerous and may experience a hard negative. Clients are being advise to reduce risk in bonds and stocks and raise cash. They indicated that less risk averse or older retiree's etc. should go to 90-100% cash and the much better buying opportunities will open up in the immediate future.

    The last 4 week rally was almost devoid of family and individual investors. Most of the volume (90%+) was momentum trades on margin, which is usually evident at market tops. HENCE, THE "HARD NEGATIVE" WARNING.

    I would just like to share this tidbit with my friends/enemies here. Good Luck Everyone.

  • Reply to

    Real Inflation Rate hits 8%

    by dr_klumps Nov 4, 2015 3:11 PM
    dr_klumps dr_klumps Nov 11, 2015 3:08 PM Flag

    Labor Inflation is soaring. Ford gave workers 8,500 cash/yr + 3% , over 20% a year for average young worker with 38,000 base. senior folks making 69,000 get half that, but 10% isn't bad. This will be the model, the FORD MODEL T for wage increases this year and next 3 years.

  • My Klumpty Dumpty analysis indicates an imminent rate hike in December, or my prediction of a SANTA RATE HIKE is right on schedule. I always maintained it should be down during a holiday period to minimize jerk reactions. You should use my tactical strategy to identify decline related stocks, either sell those or short them and only do tactical purchases, like ABBV at $48 that I did on Oct. 22, for a quick gain to $64 today. TBT is a good buy in the $42 area, it has built a huge base around 42. This is a bullish wide basing action getting ready for a big spring forward. Good bets. Closed end preferred stock funds should come under pressure. Bonds and utility stocks and other yield sensitive securities will do poorly. Liquidity issues with MBS and derivatives. Klumpty Dumpty has been warning for months that you should be dumping stocks into strength, my Klumpty Dumpty predictions are panning out, BIG DUMP COMING and less and less stocks will participate in "Buy the Dip" rallies.

56.73+0.72(+1.29%)Dec 1 4:00 PMEST