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American Electric Power Co., Inc. Message Board

dr_klumps 331 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 hours ago Member since: May 2, 2013
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  • Reply to

    OIL CRASH = STOCK CRASH

    by dr_klumps Dec 1, 2014 6:57 PM
    dr_klumps dr_klumps Dec 10, 2014 3:30 PM Flag

    I DIDN'T SAY PRICE PER GALLON, I SAID "GAS". You assumed wrong. Anyway, I really was right, but this is small change to argue about. I bought ERY a negative oil ETF 3X leverage on the downside, around $12, it currently is $26 and expected to go to $90 early next year. This has potential of an 8 bagger, shares of ERY make nice Christmas Gifts. I WASH RIGHT ABOUT THE CHRISTMAS CRASH or SANTA CRASH. That is all I really care about, plus a 50%+ gain on my networth a year.

  • Reply to

    Neg. Oil ETF up over 100% in 2 mos.

    by dr_klumps Dec 10, 2014 3:16 PM
    dr_klumps dr_klumps Dec 10, 2014 3:24 PM Flag

    "In the magical kingdom of Bubblelot, live the beautiful Bubblins.
    Every morning, as the sun rises over Lake Bubblin they gather together and sing this song...
    Beautiful Bubblins fly through the air,
    Leave your magical bubbles everywhere!
    For every bubble that comes from you,
    Is a precious wish that will someday come true!"

    In Bubblelot, the Bubblins are very busy creating magical "wish-come-true" bubbles for everyone... this Christmas Season ERY is Klumps present to you.

    And Professor Klumps has more, especially you . . . . . . .Stay Tuned.........Don't Put me On Ignore......I am releasing bubbles of information everyday......CLEAR ALL AIRWAVES......CLEAR ALL THE AIRWAVES ON THE AGNC MESSAGEBOARD for these important announcement during our VERY RARE CHRISTMAS CRASH !

  • ERY is a 3X short on Energy....Up from $12 to $26 and headed higher.

    The oil collapse or Crash is being felt around the world and is taking every country down to the Bubble Popping Shed. THIS WILL BE BIGGER THAN THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2008-2009.

    I would pull the trigger and SHORT THE S&P 500, symbol SH, it is the most disillusioned index, and if margin calls start coming, Funds will be selling the S&P500 to raise cash, most other non S&P stocks are already down 50-90% in price (in the oil or energy related businesses).

  • Reply to

    Santa Claus Crash !

    by dr_klumps Nov 17, 2014 4:55 PM
    dr_klumps dr_klumps Dec 10, 2014 3:06 PM Flag

    I believe I had 90% degree of confidence in a downturn fairly shortly after Thanksgiving 2014 versus Thanksgiving 2013 where I was 75%. Hence, my measure of my accuracy went up so we could say rather robustly, WE WERE ALOT CLOSER TO THE TOP NOW, 5 YRS INTO THIS BULL RUN OR 90% BASED ON MY INDICATORS, EVERYDAY THAT GOES BY IS ONE DAY CLOSER TO BEING 100% CONFIDENT OF MAJOR IMMINENT DOWNTURN.

    How much has you portfolio dropped in 10 days????? I am just curious.

  • dr_klumps dr_klumps Dec 9, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    So did I. But, I have bought and sold it 6 times and have short term capital gains over 50% that I pay no taxes on because of a capital loss I am offsetting from my trading. I'm not complaining. If you are long, you had better be careful of dividend reduction announcement, the short yields are getting flatter.

  • ERY went from 13 to 24 two months ago, then went down to 17 only 2 days ago and then popped up 7.00 on $17.00 almost a 50% return.

    I would buy this on any hope rallies in Oil, but SHORT energy on any strength.

    Neg. Energy ETF's

    SCO,
    DTO,
    SZO
    DUG,
    DDG,
    DNO,
    DTO

  • To hedge your long holdings of AGNC, you can get 4-5 X hedging power from these Negative ETF's to offset market losses in M-REIT's.

    ERY, 3X SHORT ENERGY, Buy 13, Sold 22, Buy 17, Sell 25, last two months, this not only hedges but provides a very comfortable living or retirement income.

    SCO,
    DTO,
    SZO
    DWTI,
    DUG,
    DDG,
    DNO,
    DTO.

  • This is very similar to the subprime housing bubble. It was allowed to bubble due to government policies and then it bursts because those gov. policies were not well thought out. This time, zero percent interest policy caused massive amounts of small investors to search for yield elsewhere. And the big brokerages filled a need and came out with thousands of new Master Limited Partnerships to drill, transport or store oil. Alot of these were only set-up inorder to attract capital which was then used to leverage and borrow from banks and the debt market at record low rates using HIGH OIL prices as collateral.
    RESULTS:
    1. Record amount of leverage and debt issued under the premise that OIL can never go down, it will only stay constant and rise, very similar to the "Real Estate" pardigm used by the banks an realtors, "Homes will never go down, the worst will be it stays the same because there is only a fixed amount of land and growing numbers of people". OIL was a bubble, and everything connected to it was a bubble, because QE and Zero % Interest Policy by our government created this condition.
    2. Record amount of OIL brought above ground (EXTRACTED OIL), record amounts in fixed storage and record amounts in transport tankers (rail, ships, etc.). A BUBBLE IN ENERGY SUPPLIES OR RESERVES is no good for pricing power, plus a bubble record of producers, many small, low financed operations.
    3. OIL/OPEC Monopoly Bubble has collapsed, everyone is for themselves as economies around the world become weak and over debted. Saudis & Russians are trying to put the small producers in USA out of business, which will collapse many many related bubbles and leaves no monopoly that can control prices, no one is working together, the Monopoly Power Bubble has collapsed.
    4. This could lead to a financial collapse 5 times bigger than the subprime mortgage collapse. I hope all the extra debt 5 Trillion that the FED issued will somehow soften the blow now, I think not.

  • Reply to

    Bubble #1: Short Term Treasury Yields

    by dr_klumps Dec 7, 2014 8:40 PM
    dr_klumps dr_klumps Dec 8, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    I actually spend time warning people about the future. I analyze data, and my data said with 95% of confidence that THE GENERAL STOCK MARKET WILL FALL, IF OIL STOCKS DROP. So, I tried to warn people to sell there general stocks while they are making new highs, IT IS A CERTAINTY that the DOW and S&P bubbles will burst soon, if energy keeps going down. I think today we are seeing the momentum Bubblins waking up to reality.

  • Reply to

    Bubble #1: Short Term Treasury Yields

    by dr_klumps Dec 7, 2014 8:40 PM
    dr_klumps dr_klumps Dec 8, 2014 3:12 PM Flag

    I am semi-retired now. I teach a little, former college prof., business, finance, economics, whatever they need. Also, business owner, in the banking business/investments, IPO's for mutual savings banks, consultant in many areas. Now, I just give back through the messageboards the knowledge I have accumulated. My retirement income, pension and investments is all my income plus a little W2 and 1099-Misc for teachings or consulting, which is very minor. I make more in a short term trade than I do working now.

  • Zero Percent Interest rates on Short Term Treasuries is the result of the FED moving the FED Fund Rate to near zero, the rate they charge overnight loans between banks. NO LONGER NEEDED. THE FED SHOULD RAISE THIS ASAP, OR AT WILL. This is a major concern for FINANCIAL STABILITY. Leverage of 8-10 is too high and YIELD SPREAD does not produce jobs or growth. THIS SHOULD STOP NOW!

    To forestall another bubble, Esther George, President Federal Reserve Bank Kansas City, says it’s time for the Fed to start raising interest rates it has kept near zero since 2008. She argues that ultra-cheap credit is no longer needed to support an expansion that’s in its sixth year after the worst recession since the 1930s.

    “The Fed took pretty aggressive action because we were in a fairly desperate situation,” George said. “Once we saw the economy turn, we might have removed some of those emergency measures, including zero interest rates.”
    St. Louis Fed President James Bullard today called financial imbalances “my biggest worry going forward,” and said the Fed must avoid fanning a boom like the one in housing that could lead to another bust. “Asset-price bubbles are the elephant in the room for monetary policy in the U.S.,” he told reporters after a speech in St. Louis.

    Fed officials including Chair Janet Yellen have said they are watching deteriorating leveraged-loan underwriting standards, and the central bank in September created a committee on financial stability under Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer.

    ‘Esther George has centered attention on the issue,’’ said Lawrence Goodman, a former U.S. Treasury official who is now president of the Center for Financial Stability in New York, an independent research organization. “There are an increasing number of converts at the Fed that financial stability matters"

  • dr_klumps dr_klumps Dec 7, 2014 8:18 PM Flag

    First of all you shouldn't be holding this for the dividend which is taxed at normal income rates and you are subject to principle loss from BV losses. In a rising rate environment, it doesn't matter when they actually raise rates, they have already started going up at the short end. When rates rise, the share price reaction will be larger than expected because lots of yield seakers will be leavin en mass. I would not expose you precious principal to this risk. Buy this stock around 21 and sell it over 23 and capture the spread every 1-3 months, the divy is now paid monthly, so you will have to trade the market sentiment momentum. But if you have to buy and hold for income and don't have the time to trade, look at the energy bonds, they are yielding 9-13%, and you get the assets of the oil companies in BK court. Whereas stockholders are left with nothing.

  • Plain commonsense. BP would get a higher price if it sold out to an American company in a 1-2 years. The value of the dollar is rising and American's can pay a higher price. If non-america oil company buys BP they will pay a lower, a take-under price. BP right now is worth only $30, with the US dollar so strong. And 2 years from now with US DOLLAR RISING EVEN FURTHER, BP is worth only $20 USD.

    STRONG SELL ON BP due to very strong USD, it is that simple. BIG OIL will be down 75% in stock prices in 2015, still time to get out. Oil billionaires will become millionaires..

  • Reply to

    OIL CRASH = STOCK CRASH

    by dr_klumps Dec 1, 2014 6:57 PM
    dr_klumps dr_klumps Dec 6, 2014 2:10 PM Flag

    Your totally wrong, just call the state of illinois they will tell you that dealers have to collect a sales tax of up to 10.5% depending on the town you buy the gas in illinois. the tax is computed on the net sales price of gasoline less any excise taxes (which are not sales tax). the sales tax collected by the dealers has to be deposited monthly or quarterly and form st-1 has to be filed quarterly or annually.

  • dr_klumps by dr_klumps Dec 6, 2014 1:46 PM Flag

    DEFINITION of 'Bubble'
    1. An economic cycle characterized by rapid expansion followed by a contraction.
    2. A surge in equity prices, often more than warranted by the fundamentals and usually in a particular sector, followed by a drastic drop in prices as a massive selloff occurs.
    3. A theory that security prices rise above their true value and will continue to do so until prices go into freefall and the bubble bursts.

    Bubbles form in economies, securities, stock markets and business sectors because of a change in the way players conduct business. This can be a real change, as occurred in the bubble economy of Japan in the 1980s when banks were partially deregulated, or a paradigm shift, as happened during the dotcom boom in the late '90s and early 2000s. During the boom people bought tech stocks at high prices, believing they could sell them at a higher price until confidence was lost and a large market correction, or crash, occurs. Bubbles in equities markets and economies cause resources to be transferred to areas of rapid growth. At the end of a bubble, resources are moved again, causing prices to deflate. Thus, there is little long-term return on those assets.

    "In the magical kingdom of Bubblelot, live the beautiful Bubblins.
    Every morning, as the sun rises over Lake Bubblin they gather together and sing this song...
    Beautiful Bubblins fly through the air,
    Leave your magical bubbles everywhere!
    For every bubble that comes from you,
    Is a precious wish that will someday come true!"

    In Bubblelot, the Bubblins are very busy creating magical "wish-come-true" bubbles for everyone... this Christmas Season

    And Professor Klumps has one especially you . . . . . . .Stay Tuned.........Don't Put me On Ignore......I am preparing my Christmas special titled,

    "The 25 Bubbles for Christmas", an economic analysis of the Bubble Economies throughout the world and the Chief Bubble Princess name Yellen.

  • Based on my analysis, oil could drop to $30/barrel, creating the worst crisis since the Subprime Financial Crisis. Massive Bear Markets always start out unexpectedly, pick up steam and then only after losses of 40-50% does the public then wakeup and realize this is a massive crash. The oil sell-off started over six month ago, you could see the divergence, the market internals getting bad, just like we are seeing the past 2 months in the general stock markets.
    Oil will continue to drop, like I said last week, this week it has continued its slide. No one has stopped production, in fact OPEC has lowered price to China to prevent them from buying from USA. Everyone is fighting for a declining market, deflating market, DEFLATION. I talked about a condition of INFLATION/DEFLATION where you have massive inflation along side of massive deflation. People laughed, said you had to have one or the other, I smiled and said I have data that shows you can have both. This condition is caused when the free markets are DISTORTED by some large aggregate within a free economy. Massive Inflation/Massive Deflation conditions have been experienced many times in the past and will so much more frequently since the MASSIVE DISTORTION of QE, Zero Interest Rates, and TWIST that the FED implemented for the past 5 years. This distortion will lead to the same distortion that the AUTO Monopolies and the UAW distorted the free market with high wages, high benefits, guaranteed jobs, etc, so that new car prices rose double digits for decades and trade in values plummeted in high double digits yearly after purchase.
    After years of $100 plus oil, governments used the windfall to spend spend spend on gov. programs etc,, oil was not in a free market, but was distorted with QE, Zero Interest Rates, when capital flowed into production development to earn yield by all the safe money displaced by low yields in the banking system. Capital was reallocated to production to provide yield.

  • Reply to

    little bit of a sell-off this morning...

    by spartacus1896 Dec 5, 2014 10:04 AM
    dr_klumps dr_klumps Dec 5, 2014 7:08 PM Flag

    You know why. Many cities and states passing minimum wage increases of double digits for 3-4 years. Not only is the yearly increase double digits, but the contract period is 3-4 years, not 1-2 years. Chicago just passed $8.75 - $15.00. Seattle just or will pass to $20.00 min. wage.

    The poverty level is Chicago is $22,800 based on federal calc. But since the FED's have lied about inflation for the past 20 years, Obamacare used the modified calculation of 400% times the fed level, hence, a household 22,800 x 4 = 91,200 is considered the start of middle class. THE BIG CITIES ARE BRUTAL from inflation, I do not know how the FEDS waterdown the average to 1-2% when prices are rising 10-30% on everything every year for the past 5-6 years since QE started. My god, 73% ground beef six years ago was .99/lb it was Jewel's value-wise chub selection. Today, the same 73% valuewise chub (3 lb.) is $4.99/lb or $14.97, it goes on sale for $9.99 for 3 lbs.

    INFLATION IS SMOKING IN THE BIG CITIES, IT WAS 5 YEARS AGO, IT WAS 2 YEARS AGO AND IT IS STILL GOING ALTHOUGH I NOTICE A SLOWDOWN SINCE OCTOBER, SINCE OIL WENT INTO FREE-FALL.

  • dr_klumps dr_klumps Dec 5, 2014 6:58 PM Flag

    Do you know how to evaluate Executive Performance? I do. Do you want a professional evaluation like I would do in a consultation with a corporation. I actually have a list of criteria in which to guage performance, that is proprietary, (I get big bucks for this work), it is priceless. It can actually be used to rewrite compensation contracts and bonus calculations.
    Here is something for free, because it was so simple for me to extract. Mr. Kains experience is well documented, He has an electrical engineering education, with master level work in business and finance, if my memory serves me correct and he has extensive experience in a specific area of finance with basically the same employer before he came to AGNC. Now, I am not pretending to be an HR expert, but doing basic due diligence in recruitment, one needs a very well define list of objectives and goals in what they want for a CEO. If you want a guy that won't make waves and fit in with a culture, for example like GM, the big car company, you find someone that fits those objectives (whole list of them) and you score the objectives and added the scores up and quantitatively you have your man.
    In M-REIT's, the list of objectives for CEO, could vary widely, it depends on what you want to do short term, intermediate term or long term. Since, I don't know what those objectives were, I can take the man that was hired, and do a CSI analysis working backwards from the answer to arrive at the criteria used for selection.
    One thing I not, Gary is a one dimensional Exec., meaning he worked in one specific specialty in one specific company (Gov. Agency) most of his career, ONE DIMENSIONAL. A two dimensional Exec. worked in 2-3 industries maybe related and has some range. A three dimensional Exec. working in more than 4-10 industries and is multi-dimensional if he was successful and not forced out of those companies.
    Observation: It appears this CEO in one dimensional, worked only with Gov. Agency.

  • Based on a number of rules, one called Taylor Rule and others that watch wage inflation, indicate the FED has to raise rates rather quickly now, especially with all the distortion they did to the economy. Hence, one algorithm indicated they can raise the FED FUND RATE at will, meaning anytime from now to March, 2015, the first rate hike will hit, and I don't think it will be what people expect.

    Chicago just past a bill, that minimum wage will rise from 8.75 to $15.00 over 4 years. $6.25 increase over 4 years, or 6.25/8.75 = 71.43% or average of 17.85% per year. Chicago is smoking. I think you will see growing company's paying 10-12% to keep their good workers. My own experience, I got 10% increase last year, and my review this year from my faculty comp. committee, said the increases should be 20% better than last year plus big fringe increases, hence I am looking at 12% increase plus fringe increases. Mind you, I live in Chicago burbs, the COLA out here is 11-16% depending on the suburbs, so I am still behind the inflation ball, I still have to cut back. But investors and savers are really getting screwed with 1-3% divy yields, then you have to take into account capital gains or losses. You can never get ahead in the private sector.

  • Reply to

    OIL CRASH = STOCK CRASH

    by dr_klumps Dec 1, 2014 6:57 PM
    dr_klumps dr_klumps Dec 5, 2014 6:29 PM Flag

    You can call me stupid, it is your priviledge, but you do not have any right to call me wrong. HOW COULD YOU THINK SOMEONE COULD SELL SOMETHING AT THE RETAIL LEVEL AND NOT PAY SALES TAX ON IT. That is just GROSS IGNORANCE.

    That is what is wrong with amateur investors, they make assumptions on momentary visual observations. They get charged per gallon so they don't see a separate item showing sales tax on the receipt, so they assume they didn't pay any. The price per gallon is determined by the dealer and has to include the Fed. & State Excise Tax per gallon and then the sales tax is calculated on the cost of the net gasoline cost (less excised taxes). The tax amount is adjusted everytime the dealer gets a change in the cost of gas or changes the retail price so that he collects the correct sales tax per gallon.

AEP
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