Margin Debt as % of GDP has always been a good indicator of a top in the stock markets. SOME DISTURBING FACTS:
Margin Debt as % of GDP:
Jan 1999 - Jan 2000 : Rose from 1.25% to 2.25%
June 2006 - June 2007 : Rose from 1.5% to 2.5%
Feb 2013 - Feb 2014 : Rose from 2.0% to 3.0%
All these highs in Margin Debt ratio to GDP, occurred in the year 12 mos. before the official peak in the stock markets. After this threshold was reached, it was continuous distribution and selling, descending triangles in many indexes and individual stocks as flight from risk played out. Does anyone else see the pattern?
Once again, you are using dynamics to make propositions that seemingly make sense. Chinese officials halted margins, they are pricking the bubble. When sovereign banks start pricking bubbles, it is usually coordinated globally like in 2008. Hence, watch for Euro-zone and others to coordinate. These are changes in the fundamentals, that is what we should be focusing on, the easy money of years past is gone, everything is tightening, slowly but surely the noose is get narrower and narrower. From Jan 14 to Jan 22, looks like a perfect half mae-west formation on the charts for AGNC is a monthly descending triangle (lower lows, lower highs). Interesting.....Iran hints at $25 oil, and I believe their hint. I think we could go down to $15 in an emotional cleansing, splastic, emptying, flush move in the markets. But that is just me. What you insight into todays news.
It depends on the situation, is the person suffering from a condition of mono-testicle? Maybe from a childhood baseball accident.
Beijing suddenly wakes up to the dangers of rising leverage in the Shanghai stock market.
Even before noon Monday, trading in China’s biggest stockbrokers was halted in Shanghai because their own stocks had crashed by the daily limit of 10%.
Nice recap.....how many REIT's are you in and do you limit 3-4% max in that sector or do you sometimes overweight based on safety. How do you select, do you have a calculation with one buy/hold/sell indicator. Is your selections objective based on some measures or indicator or more subjective, based on inferences drawn from the analysis.
Did you ever suspect that maybe this person is not real, it could be an illusion, a non-human? Like a carton character robot, programmable to respond like a message board real person and conduct intelligent conversations using brain like algorithmic matrix, yet extract some real revealing truths and hypothesis and conclusions that could be useful.
Too bad, because the story here is intriguing. Dr. Klumps recycles the premises of "Quantitative Easing" and "Zero Interest Rates," turns up the heat and the volume, and borrows the gravity-defying insight of leading economists into a message of 100% total reality. It's fun and educating.
The plot involves Dr. Klumps, a mild-mannered retired professor and economics genius by day, a misunderstood message boarder by night. He was drawn to the AGNC message board several years ago for the 20%+ yield, referred by a cell of yield-seekers, led by the profound “Flame” and the befuddled warrior Mcmichael. Working as a rag tag team, They've made a fundamental discovery about the real world: It doesn't exist. It's actually a form of Virtual Reality, with mind altering programs like Q.E., Zero Percent Interest Rates, Bond Buying, Helicopter Money Printing, “This Time its Different”, “Everything is still Positive”, “That won't affect the bull market” designed to lull us into lives of blind obedience to the "debt system." We obediently go to our crummy jobs every day, little realizing, as Dr. Klumps tells McMichael, that the "FED” has pulled the wool over your eyes--that you are a slave to the illusion that “The USA is fine, the rest of the World isn't."
The message board rebels want to crack the framework that holds the illusion in place, and free mankind. The Flame believes Dr. Klumps is the Messianic "One" who can lead this rebellion, which requires mind power as much as physical strength. Arrayed against them are the Agents, who look like righteous, indignant complainers on this message board who try to promote the notion that it is one person with multiple identities designed to deceive the others, when in reality, there is not truth whatsoever to their proposition a poignant dilemma of adaptation and survival.
Man are you off. I am the original and only Dr. Klumps. Flame is a separate entity. mmichaelr is a separate entity. Herexhear must be new here.
No one has fled the board to my knowledge. Some may be message challenged from a long Christmas New Years holiday.
Stationary semi-circle or more commonly called a horizontal half moon, is also very ominous. It starts at the horizontal plane with vertical coordinates of zero and usually ends at the horizontal plane with coordinates zero at some point X into the future, after reaching
LONDON (MarketWatch) — The Swiss stock market was taking another beating on Friday, with the benchmark index heading for its worst week since 2008 in the wake of the Swiss National Bank’s decision to scrap its currency cap.
The Swiss Market Index SMI, -5.28% slumped 5.2%. That set it on track for an 13% weekly slide, which would be the worst since October 2008.
Friday’s losses came on the heels of an 8.7% plunge on Thursday, after Switzerland’s central bank decided to abandon its minimum exchange-rate cap of 1.20 Swiss francs to the euro. The floor was introduced in 2011 to protect the country from the eurozone debt crisis.
I CAN'T SEE THE USA NOT PARTICIPATING IN THIS IF NOT GETTING DRAGGED DOWN INTO THE GLOBAL DEPRESSION.
Your right. But I am talking about the FED, who lives in a Blue Pill viewed world. According to them everything is fine and they are patting themselves on the back and giving themselves big raises to boot. I hope you see where I am coming from, if not, take a blue pill of illusion and imagine a perfect growing strong vibrant economy, to keep the illusion going, they have to raise rates and say the growing strong economy can handle it.
Now getting back to painful reality and the "Red Pill" from the Matrix movie. This is what reality is right now:
Something odd is happening in the government bond market: Interest rates are pricing in a debt-deflation cataclysm.
How else can you explain the fact that the yield on the U.S. 30-year bond hit a record low of 2.4 percent on Wednesday? Or that Japanese and German 10-year yields are plumbing record lows? Or that five-year yields of bonds issued by Eurozone safe havens Finland, Germany and Switzerland are in outright negative territory?
Something is very wrong here.
The Swiss Franc Soars After SNB Abandons Cap on Currency
For the U.S. 30-year yield, current levels have dropped below the lows set during the 2008 financial panic and 2012 pre-QE3 slowdown. And this is down from the post-recession high of 4.85 percent set in 2010 and a recent high of nearly 4 percent set in late 2013.
With stocks not far from late December's record highs, with job growth surging, investor confidence at extremes, consumer and small business confidence high, GDP growth strong and the Federal Reserve telling everyone it's preparing for its first interest rate hike since 2006, the bond market's message comes off as downright weird.
ITS A WEIRD WEIRD WEIRD DISTORTED WORLD WE LIVE IN HERE TODAY, where abuse of the "Red Pill" Illusion has corrupted the cognitive and moral stability of this great hypocrisy we live in. Get ready for a goat rodeo ride of a lifetime in the markets, a BIG ONE IS A COMIN....
That would be going against the FED, there is an old rule, don't fight the FED. The made it clear they will be raising rates this year, all of the objectives have been passed, unemployment is 1/2% below 6% target. Inflation is on target and people have more money leftover from the Energy tax cut, the debt holders can afford to pay more this year than next, which is an election year. FED FUND rate will be .50 - .75% by yearend, you can take that to the bank.
What is Apple after a medical device company comes out with an implantable device that measures blood pressure, heart rate, monitors blood component levels which also also direct telecommunications with the voice box and tympanic ear drum interfaces. Just like the built in cell-phone and internet connection in my car, you have instant communication and commands with you auditory voice control. These are being developed to cut down the cost of health care, the ancillary benefit will put cell phones, ipads, iphones into the scrap heep. AAPL is aware of this and is trying to come out with a wearable device, but the government backed research for an implantable device very small, is superior. These carry loose devices have too much security and fraud risk, the device of tomorrow is implantable, and it will be your doctor, your accountant, your tax preparer, your vote and your Representative and Senator in Congress. This device will replace almost everything, including voting, both chambers of commerce etc. It will be direct, fraud free, 100% VERIFIABLE COMMUNICATION with the individual, giving position, tracking whereabouts, etc. No need for Congress, important bills will be voted by all the constituents through this secure device on every matter in the government, without any lobbyists or Congress or bureaucracy.
Apple reminds me a lot of the Radio Shack Corporate history. So similar. An electronic device and expanding out with ancillary hardware and services and rapid growth. Who would of thought the Citizen Band Radio, would ever go away back in the 1970's and 1980's. What a growth bubble. Same with cell phones and iphones, what a bubble (with little competition).
We all know, bubbles always burst. No one stays on top forever. You can only eat so many McDonald's hamburgers. Knowing when to get out of a good thing is hard to do. What goes around comes around. Everything eventually reverts back to the mean.
Massive deflation throughout Europe, exotic credit derivatives, etc. and Swiss Franc just moved 30%, in past 1-2% move in a currency was HUGE, this move today was off the records books. Lots of speculators and hedge funds and credit derivatives got walloped HUGELY. A tsunami effect is rolling through the financial markets, how bad will Apple get hurt?
I thought I would share this with my friends here. It looks like the same old same old stuff is still happening from the Lehman days.
4 Banks Fined For Swiss Franc Interest Rate Derivatives Cartel
The European Commission has found that four international banks, RBS, UBS, JP Morgan and Crédit Suisse, operated a cartel on bid-ask spreads of Swiss franc interest rate derivatives in the European Economic Area (EEA).
The Commission imposed fines worth a total of EUR32,355,000 on these banks. RBS received immunity from fines for revealing the existence of the cartel to the Commission. UBS and JPMorgan received reductions of their respective fines for cooperating with the investigation under the Commission's 2006 Leniency Notice. All four banks received a 10 percent reduction for agreeing to settle the case with the Commission.
Shocking, utterly shocking. A 1-2% move in currency in a day is shocking. Today, a 30% move in the most safe Swiss Franc, THIS IS A SHOCK OF BIBLICAL PROPORTIONS. This breaks all the record books, this is bigger than 1929 by several X factors. I can't even put a number on something this high, but I will try, Godzillions, holy high heaven Godzillions.
I don't know if you keep up with the latest news out of Switzerland, but major currency blowup has occurred, lots of 3rd party derivatives, credit #$%$ vaporized, HUGE LOSSES, if you hedged wrong this may send reverberations throughout the GLOBAL financial system, and USA is exposed because financials in this country have exotic hedges and derivatives etc. booked with est'd values that may have just got vaporized. Assumptions and values are coming down hard, watch out for the writeoffs. I hope you know what you are in, it is going to get messy.