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Realty Income Corporation Message Board

dragon_legal_department 164 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 10, 2015 1:14 PM Member since: Apr 16, 2013
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  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Apr 10, 2015 1:14 PM Flag

    Look for this article too...These will be the world's 20 largest economies in 2030...
    While not relevant for the next year or two, the graph associated with this article will show you just how much copper (and moly) demand should rise over the next 15 years.
    Consumer economy transition or not, consumers need LOTS of copper and moly as they move into homes, start families and buy more things.
    For long term TC holders, this is a very positive article.
    I hope they are right about India. At some point they have to be, India cannot stay the ghetto of the world forever with the amount of educated talent that country is producing every year.
    At some point they will get their act together.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Worm Has Turn

    by do_lo_when Apr 6, 2015 10:25 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Apr 7, 2015 8:13 AM Flag

    No one, DB, no one has gotten the timing right on this stock in years. No one. Don't think they're going to start now...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Apr 7, 2015 8:10 AM Flag

    1024k mt shortfall....so are you saying they are off by 1024k mt's and the market will be at a deficit of at least 631k mt (1024k - 393k mt) or that the market will be at a deficit of 1024k mt?
    (Assuming they don't raise thier 1% growth target, that is.)

    Anyway that some of this could be made up? Over production at some mines, stockpiled concentrate processed, additional scrap metal brought to market, someone releases processed stocks, or a fairy godmother perhaps?

    It sure would be nice to see a healthy price average (say $3.50 lb???) in the second half of 2015.....

    Don't think TC can earn enough to pay all the GSO's off in December, but it sure would be nice to see them gone before the annual meeting in 2016, wouldn't it?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    OT - Good Reads

    by twelve12pm Apr 3, 2015 12:23 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Apr 3, 2015 4:30 PM Flag

    Thanks for the reviews.

    Quote by Dragon.
    "Life is full of "Black Swans" and unfortunately there are not enough shotgun shells to go around...."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Apr 3, 2015 12:26 PM Flag

    Our first and deadliest mistake is believing we can trust the Iranian theocratic regime in any way, shape or form.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Apr 3, 2015 12:22 PM Flag

    No surprise here. Countries are getting tired of putting up with the Untied State's #$%$ and arrogance, well at least until they need military support from us....
    And BHO has reinforced the perception of the U.S. as an impotent and has been world power.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    VIR presentation

    by straightdope13 Apr 1, 2015 11:58 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Apr 3, 2015 12:19 PM Flag

    Honestly the questions were much better and the answers were much more direct than what we normally hear on the shareholder meetings.

    He did dance around the debt issue regarding what they were going to specifically do, and that's no surprise. Whatever they do, whenever they do it, they will not telegraph their plans. In many instances that could be counter productive.

    Thought is was interesting that Tumazos brought up the BK question. That perception, or fear could be one thing depressing the PPS currently. If so then that issue won't be resolved or put to bed until the debt is refinanced into less onerous terms.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    VIR presentation

    by straightdope13 Apr 1, 2015 11:58 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Apr 3, 2015 12:15 PM Flag

    Comments I picked up from Perron:

    We want to "make sure Langeloth will generate enough revenue in the coming years to offset out C&M at our moly mines" (Plus slow stripping costs? He didn't say, or at least I did not hear that....).

    "Very difficult to believe there is good transparency out of China" (Regarding metals stockpiles and production, plus I would add, demand...)

    Perron expects moly demand to be weak in 2015, does not expect price relief in near future. This is not unexpected, we all know demand has to pick up, and economies must get on track for this to happen, and so far that is not happening anywhere in the world right now.

    "We have 24 years of mine life currently and we expect to find more ore to mine at Mt Milligan in the future"
    (No surprise here if you've been following what Ultra has been saying for some time, but to my knowledge this is the FIRST time this has been stated, or admitted publicly by TC.)

    The secured ones (bonds) are the ones that (whose covenants) limit our ability to do things"
    "I don't think there will be one silver bullet that will fix everything (referring to debt) it will probably be a mix of a number of things (repurchase, bonds, bank debt, equity).

    Regarding restarting moly mines - "When we see $12 we're going to start to think about it..we need to be confident the price will remain at that level for some time...as time goes by it will be more difficult to restart mines (because of personnel issues-mines are in remote areas-people may leave) but "we are keeping the infrastructure & equipment in good shape..Right now if we were to restart we are confident we could do so in 3 months, but 5 years from now it may take us a year to get to that point"

    Tumazos "Your stock price is interesting...the market does not respect Thompson Creek"
    Perron "The significance of the debt on the balance sheet is raising some questions...we don't think there is anything we could have done significantly better over the last 18-20 months...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Apr 3, 2015 10:51 AM Flag

    Well, lots of interesting "data" here. I'll have to look into this more. I've read the total volume of ice in the Arctic, Greenland, and Antarctica has been decreasing.
    I've read the earth is in an overall warming trend.
    I've read that many south sea islands and atolls are disappearing due to higher water levels.
    I've also read articles that contradict all the above.
    Don't think it's all BS, but obviously there are multiple political agendas and it will take some time and work to sift the wheat from the chaff.
    Time I don't have right now.
    So being as there probably few coastal mines that might be impacted anyway, I'll just let this global warming conversation die, as interesting a topic as it seems to be. I'll have to revisit it and do more research when time permits.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Apr 1, 2015 2:20 PM Flag

    Best answer so far, twelve. The earth, as measured in recent years,is increasing in temp.
    Arctic is is decreasing tremendously. Not doubt about that. Sea levels are rising - no doubt about that evidence either.

    Interesting sidebar, if this continues, Greenland mining might just compensate for a number of metal and mineral"shortfalls" for a long time to come. By all accounts it is a mineral and metal storehouse, and virtually untapped as yet.

    Antarctica, I did not know about the ice increasing there. I will have to do some reading on that. Interesting information private and els, good to have more perspectives.

    Obviously this entire topic should be looked into and roundly debated, but I abhor the political grandstanding surrounding this.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A new report by London-based CRU...

    by carlrich Mar 31, 2015 7:33 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Apr 1, 2015 11:09 AM Flag

    Good read, got a link?

    I assume many of these probable and possible projects and prospects depend very heavily on the cost of copper.
    It's likely a lot of them are uneconomic below $3 or $3.50/lb.

    Also, as we have all seen, it takes 5-6 years to start and ramp up a project to close to it's (and that after ALL needed permits are in place), and under ideal circumstances (ideal possibly meaning U.S., Canadian or Chinese jurisdiction?) .

    It is unlikely we will see a severe long term copper shortage, but I am banking (quite literally) on the prospect that well have a period of several years where demand outstrips supply.

    I guess that "When" and for "How Long" are the 64 thousand dollar questions....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Here's something interesting I have not seen discussed. Climate change due to global warming. (Warming is real, the debate is whether it's a natural cycle of the earth, or if it's man made, and I don't care either way for the point of this discussion.)
    Some areas could rapidly become arid, and some arid areas may experience increased flooding (South America?) and some mines that are coastal and near sea level could even see flooding over the next 10 to 15 years.

    I have no idea what percentage of mines are coastal, or are otherwise in "high risk nature zones", (as opposed to "high risk political zones"), but I bet someone on here has that information.

    It might be interesting to take a look at that.

    It could potentially have some serious implications.

    Or maybe not.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Apr 1, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    Thank all of your for your sentiments' condolences, prayers and general well wishes. It's been a lot to process, and it's tough to just function. I'm try to be normal, but the reality is I had to be the rock for my wife during all of this, and keep my feelings in check. She needs my support right now, I've always been the stronger one. Or maybe I'm just better at fooling myself?

    I've been reading the board, it's been quiet but it's been a nice diversion. I'm not too concerned over TC, as at this point, barring an unforeseen buyout, it has morphed into a multi-year long term holding for me. As have my oil stocks....

    A special thank you to tmguven, ultra, carlrich, skippy etc etc that have been regularly posting some very informative and thought provoking information & articles on here.

    Barring the bottom just dropping out of copper demand it seems that we will see the price/lb over $3 for at least the last half of the year, maybe more....

    Anyway, that you all again, just trying to "normalize" my life bit by bit, with God's help.

    Peace,

    Dragon

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department by dragon_legal_department Apr 1, 2015 10:34 AM Flag

    Outflows from equity-based funds in 2015 have reached their highest level since 2009, thanks to a seesaw market that has come under pressure from weak economic data, a stronger dollar and the the prospect of monetary tightening.

    Search n it for the entire article.

    Investors are scared. TC is a thinly traded stock with too much debt. It's not going anywhere unless copper and / or gold explode to the upside and / or that debt gets retired and restructured.
    Both of these events will "eventually" happen. The likelihood is extremely high that BOTH will happen in the next 2 to 2-1/2 years, at the outside. And probably sooner.

    That's why I'm here.

    Then there is the "call" on moly prices, which is essentially a "call" on the resumption of global economic activity to new highs. We need India, Europe and China all on board for that to happen. Don't know when we'll see that, as India was going to be the next great economic super power a dozen times over the last 30 years, and it still can't even get out of it's own way yet.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Odd Activity today - hit $0.04

    by dragon_legal_department Mar 30, 2015 5:16 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Apr 1, 2015 10:00 AM Flag

    Been on a bit of a whipsaw here lately - no conclusions to draw other than this is a thinly traded stock......

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department by dragon_legal_department Mar 30, 2015 5:16 PM Flag

    Just more buyers thansellers today I suppose - I don't see any news.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    This is what I am talking about

    by cvairo Mar 4, 2015 11:04 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 23, 2015 4:51 PM Flag

    I'd love to see that scenario, but that may be more than a little bit greedy...and a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I believe someone will make them an offer they can't refuse before then, and not at $4-$6 per share.
    $--$6 4, That's not just a home run, that's the whole ball game.
    However, your lips to God's ears....!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    This is what I am talking about

    by cvairo Mar 4, 2015 11:04 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 23, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    Read the last quarterly report, it's a very nice summation of PTRC's operations the last 2 years:

    The "Petrol Lakes Holding" Chinese deal.
    The "Havelide Assets" deal.
    The "Coalthane Assets" deal.
    The "Bandolier Energy" deal.
    The "Spyglass Energy Group" deal.

    The Principals:

    "Mr. Scot Cohen, our Executive Chairman, has over 20 years of financial management experience including five years as managing partner of Iroquois Capital Opportunity Fund, a private equity fund focused on oil and gas....
    Mr. Vierma has 35 years of experience in oil and gas including Vice President of Exploration and Production at Petr?leos de Venezuela, S.A, ("PDVSA"), the fourth largest oil company in the world....
    Mr. Smith spent his career at XTO Energy where he served as an operations engineer responsible for managing fields producing in excess of 100 million cubic feet of natural gas per day...
    Mr. Alba...was with Halliburton Energy Services and Superior Well Services overseeing regional technical staff and operations."

    Now ask yourself, does this "look" like a micro-cap E&P, or more like a finance company loaded with industry insiders?

    It would not shock me to see this sold for anywhere from $.25 cents to over a dollar (or more) per share at some point in the future. It depends on how many deals they can stack on top on one another and how well they can continue to raise capital. I have no idea about that, but I do know I would not bet against them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    This is what I am talking about

    by cvairo Mar 4, 2015 11:04 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 23, 2015 12:08 PM Flag

    1) Their acreage in the Mississippi is in the sweet spot, and they have a lot of it. Drilling costs are very very low.
    2) They are acquiring technology and intellectual property now, leveraging the value they hold in the 'Lime. That may be even more important in this "new world" of lower oil prices.
    3) They are not most likely NOT going to drill without a JV partner. They don't want to be in the oil business. the funding partner behind them is the Iroquois Capital fund. They don't want to run oil wells, they want to make money, and lots of it.

    Having said all that, Iroquois would be happy to sell for a lot less than $2.50. the main principals are invested between $.03 and $.04 cents, and I believe the Chinese partners (whom they would want to make happy) are in around $.13 to $.15 cents (what I remember without looking it up).
    Do the research on Petro River, and the principals involved, go back a little ways, you will see this is not your average E&P play. They are a different animal entirely, for better or worse (I believe for better, much better.)

    This is still very speculative though, and my information may only be worth what you paid for it, lol.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Two Important Dollar articles

    by tmguven Mar 11, 2015 3:43 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 13, 2015 5:31 PM Flag

    That's my point. These are pretty clear facts. Anyone can find them with a little effort. I think there is literally zero chance that the worlds major central banks don't know this.

    Why they are facilitating this deception or whatever you'd call it is the 64 thousand dollar question.

    Possibly to avoid a panic. If even a percentage of people tried to get physical delivery off of all western paper gold contracts the ensuing financial chaos would be far worse than the start of the last depression/recession.

    The last number I saw on gold physical to contract leverage in the west was something like 20-1, and that was a long time ago tm....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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49.26-0.11(-0.22%)Apr 17 4:03 PMEDT