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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

dragon_legal_department 360 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 24, 2014 11:54 AM Member since: Apr 16, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Falling copper prices will be a drag on TC pps

    by stipnomelane Dec 22, 2014 3:16 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Dec 24, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    Thanks Gatr55.

    The costs of production for existing copper mining operations are known (and still rising).

    The maximum predicable copper supply per year, with some variance, is fairly easy to research given the time.

    the demand side of copper is trickier, but you can come up with a minimum baseline range with some effort.

    Any new discovery will take 6 to 10 years to get to production.

    Unless we figure a way to economically get it oiut of seawater in the next couple of years.....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Season's Greetings

    by skippy_0823 Dec 24, 2014 11:03 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Dec 24, 2014 11:45 AM Flag

    Merry Christmas to all!

    God Bless us, every mine!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Dec 24, 2014 11:43 AM Flag

    Here's the thing with gold. You just can't tell.
    That WOULD be great news for TC. But, you just can't tell.

    Gold may be THE singularly most unpredictable "commodity", IT IS CERTAINLY THE MOST unpredictable metal!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Keep This Under Hat

    by do_lo_when Dec 23, 2014 12:48 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Dec 24, 2014 1:16 AM Flag

    Lighten up., Francis........

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hey lightdoesnotage

    by arnoldboils Dec 23, 2014 4:19 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Dec 24, 2014 1:13 AM Flag

    I.m done with PPS predictions.

    I "hope" it will be over $2.50,
    I "suspect" it will be under $2.00,
    I "wish" it would be over $3.50.

    I really have no clue, as there are far too many variables at this point to even call it plus or minus 30% IMHO.

    Whatever.
    Just give me $3.50 in Jan 2016.....

  • Reply to

    Falling copper prices will be a drag on TC pps

    by stipnomelane Dec 22, 2014 3:16 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Dec 24, 2014 1:05 AM Flag

    The data says we be, if not this year then soon enough.

    The really good news is the data says we re not in any kind of copper bubble, and the price is unlikely to tank for any extended period of time. Copper is not like oil, you just can't turn the taps on and get more.

    It's extremely capital intensive. Even if someone found the motherload of all copper deposits in say, north America next year, it's still going to take a minimum of 6 years to get it all permitted and built out. And that's the best case scenario.

    It's just basic math.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Unpopular facts but facts nonetheless

    by calico_jack Dec 22, 2014 10:24 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Dec 23, 2014 12:47 PM Flag

    Actually I can read very well.
    In your original post your highly generic statement reads, and I quote, "Tax selling" is not an explanation".
    There was no sentence in your original post that Value was referring to which had the words "things like" in it, anywhere.

    Then, in your reply to Value, you tried to backtrack on your generic statement and added some qualifiers. So, what is your point? That there are some people on here that optimistic about TC?

    Wow. What a revelation!

    That it is unfounded?

    Okay, but the only "facts" you give is the PPS chart. You want to refute optimism, give us a real argument with facts and an actual hypothesis that fits the facts. Not some general statement that the company can't be run well because the PPS is doing poorly.
    That's a laughable statement. Even the most raw of newbie investors know the PPS only has a correlation to the actual underlying company. The PPS is affected by, (but not limited to) Sector sentiment, national and global economic drivers, metals futures, metals prices, costs of materials, exchange rates, politics in some cases, market cap, share liquidity, etc etc etc, not just the company's business plan execution.

    What you posted was just a bad as someone saying the PPS will $10 by June, just that sentence and nothing else. No difference.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Falling copper prices will be a drag on TC pps

    by stipnomelane Dec 22, 2014 3:16 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Dec 23, 2014 12:26 PM Flag

    We'll see, won't we. I personally expect lots of volatility in copper pricing this year. I am looking for at least $2.70 to $3.30 throughout 2015, but I won't rule out a temporary upside surprise over $3.50 sometime during the year, as it becomes more clear there is no copper surplus, as is expected.....

    Copper is not a sad story for 2015. Oil, on the other hand....sad, very sad. (But not for TC, just U.S. E&P companies..)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CAT CEO Comments

    by foggiecat Dec 22, 2014 10:56 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Dec 22, 2014 11:46 AM Flag

    Saw this on another board - recommended read!

    Search on "Gulf Oil Exporters Blame Non-OPEC Producers for Glut " Wall Street Journal today.

    The big winners in this mess are all oil consumers, with China at the top of the list buying oil hand over fist like Dan Aykroyd buying orange futures in the move "Trading Places". I wonder if they will divert some gold buying into oil. They don't have to. They surely have enough U.S. dollars to keep buying whatever they want for a long time...

    If it keeps up through next year, North American Shale companies will be one of the losers here though, possibly meaning less moly consumption in the U.S. at least for the next couple of years. (I say possibly, as that's only one demand sector. But it is a big one.)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Unpopular facts but facts nonetheless

    by calico_jack Dec 22, 2014 10:24 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Dec 22, 2014 11:41 AM Flag

    Maybe you should re-read a little bit closer. The recent drop from about $1.9- $2 to $1.40 does indeed look like classic tax loss selling. And it is obviously overdone given what TC will earn this year and next.
    The other drops (and pops) which have occurred have all be for specific company (and macro) reasons. Some were obvious (at least in hindsight) others less so.

    It is both incorrect and disingenuous to try and say the price has dropped from levels of 5 years ago due to the company conducting operations poorly. Yes, there was some of that exacerbated by macro conditions for the sector PRIOR to Mt Milligan opening. SINCE then then, and the appointment of Mr Potato Head as CEO, TC has done a very credible, if not exemplary job in the area of mining operations (obviously NOT in investor relations, but that;s secondary).

    Also, you imply that people on this board have been saying the drops from 5 years ago to today are due to tax loss selling. NO ONE on here EVER said that that.

    I agree with value, the only conclusion anyone can draw is that you are trying a rather poor and transparent attempt at sentiment manipulation on here (which is obviously not working) OR (and here I'm giving you the benefit of doubt) you have an exceptionally POOR grasp of the nuances of the English language, which may indeed be the case if English is your second language.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Dec 21, 2014 6:43 PM Flag

    And so the global copper sully looks less and less sure.....

    And so the cost of getting it out of the ground just keeps increasing and increasing.....driving up the price of the "last ton".

    And still, demand inexorably keeps rising, rising rising....

    Can anyone recommend an undervalued, already producing copper miner in a friendly and stable jurisdiction with large proven and unproven reserves and a very low (by product) cost of production?

    Anyone?!?!?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Dec 21, 2014 6:37 PM Flag

    Mux is starting to look attractive at these levels.
    Russia and China are selling U.S. Treasuries and moving the money into physical gold. Some of the financial shenanigans the central bankers have been pulling off will really start to bite them when they have to start turning their paper gold into the real stuff to meet the actual demand.
    Did you know In Shanghai, the avg. citizen walks into a bullion shop, and pays $1,800/oz. Some of this (about $180) is VAT. In the US, the avg. citizen dials up Bullion Direct (or AMPEX), and orders some gold. He'll pay $1,250 - $1,265/oz. and some insured Fed/Ex. shipping. Yet, gold is STILL flying off the shelves in Shanghai.
    (Look up the import records - easy to find online.)
    You see, For a long time Chinese weren't even allowed to buy gold legally.
    What's the alternative?
    Jewelry?
    Investing in corrupt (more corrupt than western) communist companies.
    Either partially state owned, fully state owned or just controlled fully via state manipulation of the economy...
    Silver is too cheap to carry a lot of it around.
    Smaller amounts of Gold are fairly portable, and it's accepted in far more places than American Express....
    Most Chinese don't trust banks.
    Most Chinese cannot own foreign stocks.
    Land ownership is back, not not to the extent it is in the U.S.
    And land is not portable.
    Well off Chinese are, well, let's say they value mobility. Should the winds of the party blow the other direction, many will want to try and get out while they can, if they can. Money makes the IF much more likely.
    Gold is like a bank to most Chinese, it's the safest thing they can put their cash into. Which explains your premium. I'm sure there is a thriving black market for smuggled gold in China as well. Something which will NOT show up on any stats.
    So, unless the rest of your lifetime is measured in less than a decade, yes you WILL see a huge gold run at some point. The world is going to H in an HB. Look around.
    1 year or 10, IDK, & neither do U.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Dec 21, 2014 6:02 PM Flag

    Agree RE the talking heads.
    However, Blackstone appears to be putting it's money where it's mouth(piece) is.
    As are other investors.
    And many CEOs.
    (Reference recent article " Energy Insiders See ‘Fire Sale,’ Buy Most Shares Since 2012
    By Lu Wang and Oliver Renick Dec 8, 2014")

    Money talks. Politicians and talking heads walk.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    China vs copper – much better than you think

    by ultraific3 Dec 19, 2014 4:56 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Dec 20, 2014 12:57 AM Flag

    Been saying this for 3 years - At some point - be it next year - 2016, 2017 or 2018, we are going to see $4+ copper......maybe sooner than later. Maybe not forever, but for a while.

    Just for teets and giggles - how much does TC make at $4 copper and $1600 gold operating at 110% of capacity? And since we're thinking about it - add in $14 moly just for grins...

    Now divide by shares and give me a PE of 12....whaatchershareprice now?

    Hint - it's north of $2 LOL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Dec 19, 2014 12:58 PM Flag

    Sorry light - Perron said 80% - it won't be 90%, but I'm looking for somewhere in between.
    I have $2 and $5's.

    We need throughput announcement
    We need very good gold recoveries
    We need some income from inventory
    We need Mt Milligan reserves recalculation
    Perhaps, most importantly, we need gold to hold and copper to rise, or vice versa.
    (If both go up TC will absolutely go up as well)

    I think we can get over $2 in January, there is a good shot, but unless metal prices zoom all the bigger announcements and catalysts are spread out over the next 15 months.
    Including the ones above, catalysts are:
    Crusher purchase announcement (via financing) or Announcement of relocation of
    Endako crusher
    Endako impairment (write-down - negative event Q-1)
    EIS formal approval
    "Slow stripping started, resumed or ramped up at TC mine
    Revision of Mt Milligan to prove (drilling & assaying) some of the probable existing reserves that are in the NI43-101
    Implementation of portable crushers at Mt Milligan to increase throughput to 95 or 100%
    Moly price (large) increase (improbable but possible)
    Sale of existing moly inventory
    Higher ore grades than expected at Mt Milly next year
    Pay off senior notes (Dec 2015)
    Refi existing notes (Q-1 2016?)

    I think I've listed all of them.....

    Of course, higher copper and / or gold prices trump everything except senior not payoff and remaining debt refi - which is a year away at least.
    I expect a lot of volatility and periods of stronger metals prices interspersed with weakness next year as the metal traders short, vacillate, freak out, rinse and repeat.
    I don't foresee any continued gold or copper downtrend, but nor do I see a sustained or strong upward trend through the either. (Hope I'm wrong on that count, to the upside of course! :-)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Likely within 6 months.
    Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the Blackstone CEO see "enormous opportunities" in the oil sector.
    Who's right?
    Both?
    Neither?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Retail buying of gold in China vs. the US

    by ultraific3 Dec 17, 2014 5:07 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Dec 18, 2014 8:35 PM Flag

    I'll do bacon wrapped scallops!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Retail buying of gold in China vs. the US

    by ultraific3 Dec 17, 2014 5:07 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Dec 18, 2014 5:20 PM Flag

    I see what you're saying Taipan, but that was not exactly my point.
    In that case, it was not the land that was portable, it was the cash he used to buy the land with. My point was, that particular transaction would be unavailable to the average Chinese gold buyer. They buy a condo in Beijing, they can't move it if they leave the country fast. There is stays.
    Now your neighbor has more clout, more avenues, and probably also a membership at your same golf club to boot. And his gold is probably NOT in China, unless it's in Hong Kong.
    LOL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    POWER (REVISED)

    by do_lo_when Dec 18, 2014 12:08 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Dec 18, 2014 5:12 PM Flag

    I want to say it is BC Hydro and Power Authority, but I'd have to go back and check to be sure.
    Either way they certainly don't have the kind of power problems that Chili has.
    The bartender usually gets the shots as they are called out.
    Carl Icahn is not a bartender, nor is he buying out a bar.
    Want to rub my genie?
    Doh!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    One very important copper fact

    by gtstockreaper Dec 18, 2014 4:20 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Dec 18, 2014 5:06 PM Flag

    Which is why SCCO is smart to be in Peru.....also a better political environment there as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

TC
1.64-0.010(-0.61%)Dec 24 1:03 PMEST

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