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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

dragon_legal_department 182 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 23, 2015 4:51 PM Member since: Apr 16, 2013
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  • Reply to

    This is what I am talking about

    by cvairo Mar 4, 2015 11:04 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 23, 2015 4:51 PM Flag

    I'd love to see that scenario, but that may be more than a little bit greedy...and a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I believe someone will make them an offer they can't refuse before then, and not at $4-$6 per share.
    $--$6 4, That's not just a home run, that's the whole ball game.
    However, your lips to God's ears....!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    This is what I am talking about

    by cvairo Mar 4, 2015 11:04 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 23, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    Read the last quarterly report, it's a very nice summation of PTRC's operations the last 2 years:

    The "Petrol Lakes Holding" Chinese deal.
    The "Havelide Assets" deal.
    The "Coalthane Assets" deal.
    The "Bandolier Energy" deal.
    The "Spyglass Energy Group" deal.

    The Principals:

    "Mr. Scot Cohen, our Executive Chairman, has over 20 years of financial management experience including five years as managing partner of Iroquois Capital Opportunity Fund, a private equity fund focused on oil and gas....
    Mr. Vierma has 35 years of experience in oil and gas including Vice President of Exploration and Production at Petr?leos de Venezuela, S.A, ("PDVSA"), the fourth largest oil company in the world....
    Mr. Smith spent his career at XTO Energy where he served as an operations engineer responsible for managing fields producing in excess of 100 million cubic feet of natural gas per day...
    Mr. Alba...was with Halliburton Energy Services and Superior Well Services overseeing regional technical staff and operations."

    Now ask yourself, does this "look" like a micro-cap E&P, or more like a finance company loaded with industry insiders?

    It would not shock me to see this sold for anywhere from $.25 cents to over a dollar (or more) per share at some point in the future. It depends on how many deals they can stack on top on one another and how well they can continue to raise capital. I have no idea about that, but I do know I would not bet against them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    This is what I am talking about

    by cvairo Mar 4, 2015 11:04 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 23, 2015 12:08 PM Flag

    1) Their acreage in the Mississippi is in the sweet spot, and they have a lot of it. Drilling costs are very very low.
    2) They are acquiring technology and intellectual property now, leveraging the value they hold in the 'Lime. That may be even more important in this "new world" of lower oil prices.
    3) They are not most likely NOT going to drill without a JV partner. They don't want to be in the oil business. the funding partner behind them is the Iroquois Capital fund. They don't want to run oil wells, they want to make money, and lots of it.

    Having said all that, Iroquois would be happy to sell for a lot less than $2.50. the main principals are invested between $.03 and $.04 cents, and I believe the Chinese partners (whom they would want to make happy) are in around $.13 to $.15 cents (what I remember without looking it up).
    Do the research on Petro River, and the principals involved, go back a little ways, you will see this is not your average E&P play. They are a different animal entirely, for better or worse (I believe for better, much better.)

    This is still very speculative though, and my information may only be worth what you paid for it, lol.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Two Important Dollar articles

    by tmguven Mar 11, 2015 3:43 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 13, 2015 5:31 PM Flag

    That's my point. These are pretty clear facts. Anyone can find them with a little effort. I think there is literally zero chance that the worlds major central banks don't know this.

    Why they are facilitating this deception or whatever you'd call it is the 64 thousand dollar question.

    Possibly to avoid a panic. If even a percentage of people tried to get physical delivery off of all western paper gold contracts the ensuing financial chaos would be far worse than the start of the last depression/recession.

    The last number I saw on gold physical to contract leverage in the west was something like 20-1, and that was a long time ago tm....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 13, 2015 4:44 PM Flag

    According to Gurufocus, Thompson Creek Metals Co Inc's tangible book value per share for the quarter that ended in Dec. 2014 was $4.15. This is probably as good of a place to start as any. Tangible book value per share is considered more accurate in reflecting how much shareholders will receive when the company liquidates....

    I think everyone would be ecstatic if a $4 offer hit the table right now.

    I would not count on that happening.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Two Important Dollar articles

    by tmguven Mar 11, 2015 3:43 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 13, 2015 4:20 PM Flag

    To think that governments and central banks and even major trading don't know this, is just absurd.

    So assuming that these entities DO in fact, know this.

    This would appear to indicate secret collusion at the highs levels of world finance.

    One should ask "why?".

    What is the real end game here?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Who is buying?

    by yaonttwo Mar 13, 2015 2:52 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 13, 2015 4:04 PM Flag

    No way this should be going down based on the data released.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Two Important Dollar articles

    by tmguven Mar 11, 2015 3:43 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 13, 2015 2:28 PM Flag

    yahoosearch......The New York Fed has come under increased pressure from lawmakers who say the bank is too cozy with Wall Street, a claim that gained attention from leaked tapes last fall......

    Tip of the Iceberg, just the Tip of the Iceberg.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Two Important Dollar articles

    by tmguven Mar 11, 2015 3:43 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 13, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    Neither actually. China has been using it's enormous surplus dollar reserves to by hard assets around the globe for many years now.

    Most of the world feels (rightly so) that the U.S. is an a favored status since it IS the defacto world currency, and QE has only exacerbated that feeling.

    Basically they feel it is wrong that we can print money like cheap handbills with no financial or national repercussions, unlike any other country. They don't like it many of them would like to see us sufferfor our real and perceived arrogance, not realizing that many of them (the smaller countries) would be trading the frying pan for the fire, as it were.

    The REALLY ominous part is that the American people have been manipulated by the Fed and Wall$treet and have been sold a bill of goods.
    Who is going to suffer the most when this all occurs?

    The American middle class, and the American poor......in fact this event could signal the end of the American middle class.
    How well off would you be if your taxes double?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 13, 2015 1:43 PM Flag

    I should also point out that Alasdair penned another equally timely and informative article on March 6th, just last week, even more in tune with what you are saying now. Look it up....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 13, 2015 1:40 PM Flag

    What is amazing to me is the amount of head in the sand thinking over this. Yahoosearch for this passage that I've put in quotation marks below, it is a very, good article written last year from Alasdair Macleod (of the clan Macleod, one assumes). And things have only progressively gotten worse since then. " Western analysts have always lagged in their understanding of Chinese demand and there is now evidence China is deliberately concealing the scale of it from us. Instead, China is happy to let us accept the lower estimates of western analysts, which by identifying gold demand from the retail end of the supply chain give significantly lower figures."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 13, 2015 12:14 PM Flag

    If China (and it's allies against the U.S.) were to go back onto a gold standard of some sort, which I think they will have to in order to "dethrone" the U.S., dollar as the defacto world currency, what effect would that have to the U.S. economy? (It should get more expensive for us to borrow money to feed our debt habit, yes?)
    And what effect (or how strong an effect) do you see on the price of gold?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Two Important Dollar articles

    by tmguven Mar 11, 2015 3:43 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 13, 2015 12:02 PM Flag

    TM, I think no one disagrees that the dollar is too strong right now.
    And it will not be replaced as the defacto world standard "overnight".

    But this is much sooner than I was anticipating. And it is particularly troublesome in light of the massive amounts of gold that China keeps importing, about half of which is seemingly ignored by most of the central bankers ad reporting agencies (all this gold flowing in to Shanghai has got to go somewhere, and hint, it's not back out of China.)

    This is going to have serious and negative implications for the U.S. as a whole, and not just to the greenback.
    You have a decent handle on currency matters.

    Care to elaborate on what we could be looking at over the next 2-5 years if they launch that this year?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Another interesting article by Andy Home

    by carlrich Mar 13, 2015 11:27 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 13, 2015 11:54 AM Flag

    Nice find. Thanks for posting carl. Hoping the copper worm is about to turn this quarter. Would love some good news for once.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 13, 2015 11:52 AM Flag

    Continued from above:

    I remain long on TC, as a deleveraging play and as a play on the future price of copper, and a call on gold and eventually, moly prices too.

    However, we can all agree that this has morphed into a much longer term investment than any ofus (except maybe Ultra) had planned on. I had been thinking all along we have some exciting returns in 2017 and 2018, not it maybe pushed out another 3 to 4 years past that point.

    A lot can happen in 5 or 6 years, both good and bad.

    First, in order to realize any of it's potential, TC needs to be able to pay of the first round of notes in 2016 and refinance the rest with more favorable maturity dates.

    How about a discussion on what it is going to take to get that done?
    I see people all over the map on projections. Gatr seems to have a good handle on the current state of affairs. Other people are all over the map, from TC will lose money this year to TC will make $200 million this year (i wish, but I don't see how that can happen).

    What seems important to try and understand here.
    How close to 100% can TC actually run this year?
    How much will it cost to do that?
    Will they wait until they are secure financially to add the new permanent crusher, or will they play Russian roulette with stockholders?
    How much concentrate can TC actually get paid for this year?
    What will be the actual gold recovery rates?
    How well can they run operations? Can they wring another 10 or 20 million savings from planned capex and opex?
    Where will copper and gold pricing be in 3 months or 6 months?
    How much can they adjust the timing of their concentrate shipments to take advantage of higher prices, if they believe those will come?
    And last but not least, what will the yahoocrazyazz FED and the seemingly unsinkable US Dollar do?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • All those longs who have followed TC for a very long time, as I have.
    (I am not going to list everyone here as that would take up the entire post - LOL.
    I have not been posting a lot for personal reasons, in the last 4 months my wife and I have lost 2 of our four parents, dealt with another having a serious stroke and the death of son's childhood best friend.
    TC and my energy stocks have been depressing as well, but as you can see they are not even in the same ballpark. I know many of you have lifted up prayers for me and my family, and for that, I am very thankful.
    We will persevere and get through this, in the words of W Mitchell, "It's not what happens to you it's what you do about t that matters".

    I've had a few days of respite to post a few times like the "old days" lol. It does not feel much like the old days though. So much negativity in the real and the financial world right now. Oil, copper, gold and moly have all plummeted, some for valid reasons, some not so much.

    Looking at TC now, we have really gone from a trimetal play to a bimetal play.
    They are in an okay position financially, but not a great position.
    They are more of a metal prices play than ever currently.
    We are early in the year, but TC is being buffeted by macro forces beyond it's control, chief among those the rather absurd strength of the U.S. dollar, which evidently is seen as the least leaky lifeboat on the sinking financial world ship.
    Thank goodness for the lower Canadian dollar and lower oil prices, both which I believe will persist for a while!
    Moly demand seems to be...broken...and the supply seems to be in heavy surplus for some time.
    I cannot predict gold pricing, it is being to manipulated right now and is too emotionally driven.
    I believe heavily in the supply dynamics of copper under supply, (vs the reported and inaccurate oversupply projections) but it appears the demand side of the equation may NOT be able to hold up it's end?

    Continued below

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Updated hedges

    by theseriousinvestor Mar 13, 2015 9:57 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 13, 2015 11:00 AM Flag

    That does NOT fit the profile of a $2 E&Pstock.
    Especially one with rock solid management.
    #FinancialsandManagementMatter

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Who Says There Are No Conspiracies?

    by pudentane007 Mar 12, 2015 9:22 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 12, 2015 1:04 PM Flag

    Nice find!
    "All arguments the WGC has brought up to explain the surplus in the Chinese gold market (gold stocks) can only make up about 15 % of the gap (gold-for-gold supply and stock movement change)......More and more analysts are using SGE withdrawals as a proxy for Chinese wholesale demand instead of inaccurate WGC data."

    I will only say this.

    1) China is a command/market economy hybrid. Individual companies have leeway, but policy is set centrally for every major and strategic move the Chinese do (even IF it's not always followed to a "T" by individually independent and "quasi-independent" companies.

    2) Capitalists and Individualists are tolerated by the Chinese government, not revered.
    If anyone does anything against formal policy on a big enough scale to be noticed by the central committee, everyone knows that's a sure way to incur sham charges and a sham "trial" or, to just "disappear" if they are a smaller fish.

    3) The Chinese are much more long term and strategic than most westerners can even understand. Their short term policies are set in place for 5 to 10 years with the overall guiding policies being generational in nature. That is why they are slow to change, and why they have such an advantage over western nations in this regard, where national policies are short term and are dictated by the whims of elections or by the cash of special interest groups.

    4) If the Chinese believe they can get away with something, they will do it. Period. Lying is accepted in China. Western honor is a foreign concept. Deals have more to do with "Face", a psycho-sociodynamic concept ingrained into Chinese culture, a concept which few westerners properly understand.

    5) If you decide it is in your nation's best interests to control and buy as much of certain finite natural resources as you can, you will do whatever is necessary to make sure your buying does NOT increase the price and you can get the best possible deals on the greatest amount of goods.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Isn't it amazing...

    by carlrich Mar 12, 2015 10:44 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 12, 2015 12:36 PM Flag

    And that is probably also the case for lots of smaller cap lightly traded stocks!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Help!!

    by do_lo_when Mar 11, 2015 9:10 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Mar 12, 2015 12:32 PM Flag

    Yeah, I was into PAL a few years ago, made a little money, then lost it and bailed, fast, thank goodness as they really went south in a hurry. Management reminds me a bit of Kevin, say anything and hope you can do it, but oops, sorry shareholders....
    Made some pretty decent money on SWC a while back, that is who I'd look into if you like that space.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

TC
1.34-0.07(-4.96%)Mar 27 4:02 PMEDT