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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

dragon_legal_department 612 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 21, 2014 4:19 PM Member since: Apr 16, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Long time follower, first time poster

    by goarmybeatnavy14 Jul 21, 2014 3:59 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jul 21, 2014 4:19 PM Flag

    Sounds like you made some very shrewd moves. You have also summed up everyone's frustrations quite nicely.
    I'd like to give you your answer, but the best you can hope for is a guess.
    My best and most conservative guess is sometime between this upcoming conference call and week of the Q3 CC is when we will see TC start to get more love. Sorry I can't be more specific, too many variables related to and unrelated to TC to call closer.
    Now TC could give us some kind of negative surprise on this CC, but I highly doubt it. I just don't think Perron is that kind of a guy. Like you, I do wish he would be a little bit more promotional about the company though.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jul 21, 2014 1:06 PM Flag

    "That ain't workin, that's the way you do it!,
    Them guys ain't dumb!,

    We got to move that ferromolybdenum,
    We got to move that oxide too,

    Maybe get a blister on your (mouse) finger,
    Maybe get a blister on your (mouse) thumb!"

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jul 21, 2014 1:00 PM Flag

    From the recent news articles about Sierra Gorda that keep popping up, I would guess that many "analysts" and "forecasters" are still expecting that mine to crank out a lot of moly by product in the second half of this year.
    I wonder if traders are buying into that story too? It does not seem like it. Traders go by what they can actually see, and their feel for market. If they are are taking positions now, they expect to profit from that, not lose money.
    Just stating the obvious here, as it's too often overlooked.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jul 20, 2014 12:33 PM Flag

    I like that - I may use that from now on if you don't mind - so appropriate with TC!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jul 18, 2014 6:33 PM Flag

    I don't know how many tonnes of stainless typically go into a building an "average: nuclear reactor. But the last figures I saw (from about 2010) foretasted 440,000 lbs of were moly needed for a "average" size nuclear reactor. Of course, that forecast was also most likely predicated on using more conventional austenitic grades such as the 254 SMO® stainless steel. The 254 is comprised of 20-percent chromium, 18-percent nickel, 6.2-percent molybdenum and 0.20-percent nitrogen.
    The best choice for reactors now is the newer super-austenitic stainless steel, 654 SMO®. Metals comprising this brand include 25-percent chromium, 22-percent nickel and 7.5-percent molybdenum.
    According to a well known study at nuclear power plants in Finland and Sweden, along the Baltic Sea, "The only alloy fully resistant to all test conditions was 654 SMO®.
    And if the Chinese start deploying molten Thorium salt reactors, even that grade won't be sufficient.
    Add in the retrofitting of existing nuclear plants, desalination plants, desulfurization scrubbers, China's burgeoning catalyst industry for petro cracking AND it's nascent oil and gas (shale) industry, plus it's normal (for China) infrastructure needs and is it any wonder China does NOT want to export any of it's molybdenum?
    Indeed western moly prices could easily be double what that are running now in 6 years, or less.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jul 18, 2014 11:34 AM Flag

    Fixed it For Ya......

    a) cannot tell you what the approx. avg. price of molybdenum oxide is (and has been) over the last month within (A 25 %) degree of accuracy.

    This year Moly is having the biggest rally that Kno Won (THE preeminent Chinese rare earth analyst) has heard of so far.....

    The problem is Kno Won never gets any attention because the fact is Moly is not considered to be a rare earth by his older and smarter half brother - Nknee Won.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Are mining stocks dead?

    by ggray1956 Jul 18, 2014 10:50 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jul 18, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    They ARE


    Maybe NOT so much.

    Mining sector as a whole has not yet fully recovered and the sector is weighed down with the war on coal and the gold detractors (with the exceptions being aluminum, Nickel, Platinum, palladium and Zinc....).

    Copper is Meh.

    Moly is having the great year that Kno Won (that preeminent Chinese mining analyst) has noticed so far. But even so Kno Won does not think that the moly rally can stay jolly. However, this time Kno Won will be proven to be Wong.......(an alyst imposter).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • "Why Canadian Diversified Miners are the Best Addition to Small Portfolios"

    It actually SHOULD mention TC, but does not. Mentions VALE, RIO, BHP, TCK FM and HBM.
    TC totally got "Perroned" in this article That's what I'm going to call it from now on when something should be discussed, but wasn't. As in "you completely "Perroned me" about changing the meeting time.)
    However to be fair they are trying to make a point more diversification is better - maybe TC should buy an oil shale company - I kid, I kid...

    The article does make some great points that apply to TC though.
    "While there are profits to be made in companies with a singular vision, there is stability in putting your money in a company that has many assets. A diversified company is generally a more stable investment.....The key in choosing a diversified miner is finding one whose has exposure to different classes of commodities......"

    TC's two classes are of course industrial metals and precious metals. Not enough attention is paid to this particular fact about TC, IMHO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    German steel industry picks up in 2015: report

    by just_matt_84 Jul 17, 2014 11:07 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jul 18, 2014 9:24 AM Flag

    Matt, you might also want to google "Hastalloy" or Hast Alloy" as well.
    Group of "super alloys containing up to 305 (and more) molybdenum per alloy.

    "These corrosion-resistant superalloys are widely used by the chemical processing, aerospace, and industrial gas turbine and marine industries. Additionally, due to the their reliable performance, areas of energy, health and environmental, oil and gas, pharmaceutical and flue gas desulfurization industries are increasingly using them."

    The thing about molybdenum is there is no substitute, and increasingly more and more uses are being found and created for it.
    It has properties that virtually no other metal has.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jul 18, 2014 9:11 AM Flag

    There are some solid reasons behind this buildup - One is that China has started / expects to start production on over 100 nuclear reactors (that is their target goal) between 2010 and 2020.
    Approximately 28 are currently under construction.
    That requires a lot of moly. Between 400,000 and 500,000 lbs of moly PER reactor.

    For an averaged sized reactor.
    (China likes them larger.)

    And that is for a "standard" uranium reactor.
    (If China starts building molten thorium salt reactors, then that will exponentially increase the amount of moly needed per each reactor.
    "In an effort to reduce the number of coal-fired plants (and reduce their current crippling air pollution), the Chinese government has brought forward by 15 years the deadline to develop a nuclear power plant using the radioactive element thorium instead of uranium.
    A team of researchers in Shanghai has now been told it (March 2014) that it has 10 instead of 25 years to develop the world's first such plant.")

    Additionally, the bulk of China's round of "recent" economic stimulus packages from 2008 up to and including this year increasing have been focused on infrastructure and will continue to require a large supply of molybdenum for high-strength steel to be used in bridges, power plants, and pipelines.
    (FYI - infrastructure is the right way to do stimulus, as it generates payback for years down the road - unlike the Obama led cash giveaways in this country which do nothing other than provide a temporary bump in the retail economy without doing any lasting good.)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Q2 estimate

    by carlrich Jul 14, 2014 7:35 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jul 16, 2014 3:34 PM Flag

    Ultra - I meant ship ship all of it to Langeloth (all 75%) for roasting if possible (depending on current delivery contracts).
    Whatever they can.
    Would the market bear it??
    They would realize and extra buck or two per lb, right?....

    I wasn't talking about the Endako roaster, it doesn't seem fiscally wise to bring that one back up to snuff now. Enough money has been wasted on Endako already.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jul 16, 2014 9:22 AM Flag

    One thing that does concern me is the increase in short interest. A large increase generally speaks to institutional shorting, and that often (though not always) means "smart money".
    At least smarter, or with better intel than I.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jul 16, 2014 9:19 AM Flag

    Another excellent point! While not a guarantee, it does matter when the CEO puts his money where his mouth is.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    TC projected care and maintenance cost

    by papageorgio304 Jul 14, 2014 12:03 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jul 15, 2014 5:18 PM Flag

    Great detail as always, Ultra, thanks!

    Do you feel it is their intent to keep the moly marketplace a little off balance by not fully disclosing this in the kind of detail you just laid out?

    I can think of no other reason to not disclose this. (Perron, or the Feds can be "blamed" for the EIS delays at this point.)
    (Well there is one other reason. We are wrong about the mine and the stockpile, although with the digging you've done and the public data available, that seems like a very low percentage reason.)

    If they disclosed phase 8 pending permitting, as well as the detail on phase 7 final mining and the ore stockpile, it should do wonders for the PPS I would think. At the very least it eliminates a HUGE reason for under projecting TC's revenues.

    Again, the only negative impact I see here is that it may take a little pressure off domestic and world moly prices. How much I could not guess.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Q2 estimate

    by carlrich Jul 14, 2014 7:35 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jul 15, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    They should also roast their entire 75% from Endako to get more margin out of it, yes?
    That would be more profitable than doing third party roasting, would it not?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    TC is notorious!!!

    by ggray1956 Jul 15, 2014 3:05 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jul 15, 2014 4:53 PM Flag

    I don't even know what your post means?

    TC is not "notorious".
    (It would be much better if they were.)

    No analysts predicted moly to be over 40% higher in June than December.

    No analysts predicted moly to be selling for 30% higher right now than it was in December.
    (For that matter, no predicted copper over $3 /lb that I can recall either).

    TC unfortunately did not "rally" with the price of moly.

    All gold affiliated miners are down today.
    (FYI - TC also mines gold, and oddly, most "analysts" predicted gold would be under $1100 by now this year.)

    But thanks for your scintillating and informative post anyway.......keep using up that oxygen.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Options Trading

    by hrd1539 Jul 15, 2014 1:18 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jul 15, 2014 4:31 PM Flag

    Vegas has sound advice - be cautious.

    My two cents?
    As far as going long I prefer in the money calls.
    That leverages my cash and I know I can usually sell them for at least close to the delta of the stock and the call if I need to.

    Out of the money calls are more lucrative, but it's in proportion to their risk.
    You also don't want to pay too much premium, especially on a smaller issue like TC.
    IMHO the $1 and $2 2016 Leaps are golden right now.
    There is almost zero premium on the $1 calls and very little on the $2 calls for leverage and lots of time.
    (Time is good).

    Most of us "think" TC will be above $5 by Jan 2016, if not by Jan 2015.
    But no one here knows for sure what TC, or the market in general will do.
    If it were me - that is what I buy, that or I would sell the Jan $3 or $3.50 puts as long as you can handle owning the common. Your risk / reward on that trade is very high.

    This is expensive advice, learned the hard way and freely given.
    And believe me when I say the lesson was no fun.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jul 15, 2014 3:04 PM Flag

    Yes, good point - I believe you are correct. I think he used the word "worth" but I believe that he did clarify that at some point.

    I honestly do not know what percentage of NAV stocks in GST's class typically trade for.

    I was anticipating about an $11-$12 PPS by January, now I am less confident of that.
    $10 may be a stretch by then, especially if they do issue more shares, yes?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Zack's Financial Article

    by skippy_0823 Jul 15, 2014 9:15 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jul 15, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    I don't know about that. The market in general is not feeling the love today. Also I don't give a lot of weight to Zacks. Probably because it's named Zacks. LOL.
    In reading the article - this part really stood out to me though. Not saying TC should be up 64%, but it is obvious it is coiling here.

    "This Mining – Non Ferrous stock has actually seen estimates rise over the past month for the current fiscal year by about 64%. But that is not yet reflected in its price, as the stock gained only 1.07% over the same time frame."

    Anyway, FWIW, you just don't get very many opportunities to buy stocks under these kind of circumstances.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • What do you see for GST over the next 6 months?
    Over the next 12-18 months?
    The company seems to be doing well. Obviously the "easy money" here has been made and GST has to execute every quarter now.
    I am up nicely and I took a little off the table, but the pps trending back down to $8 has me wondering....if I should pick some more up again?

    I know the CEO "thinks" GST could be worth up to $25 PS.
    The best I can get to right now, given all the facts I have in front of me is about $12 or so.

    The Kodiak deal had me a little excited, but the buyout was at a very small premium.....

    I'd appreciate some articulate "thoughts from the bench" here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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