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MFC Industrial Ltd. Message Board

dragon_legal_department 335 posts  |  Last Activity: 37 minutes ago Member since: Apr 16, 2013
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  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department 37 minutes ago Flag

    Gonna mess up some good wines down there with that toxic dust!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Should I buy the bonds?

    by mikedunn1999 Jan 22, 2015 12:39 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jan 25, 2015 9:54 PM Flag

    Not sure the legion of fear is short TC anymore, for one, short interest is very low now. Disinterest has mostly taken over.
    Also, how smart is it to short a stock that has basically it's entire PPS in liquid cash? No trader in their right mind would do that.
    The legion of fear is most likely just day traders or juveniles, skippy.
    Either way, ignore them.
    I have even seen analysts who should theoretically know better succumb to this line of thinking. It will probably continue until TC actually makes the debt cease to be a talking point.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    TC mine stripping

    by straightdope13 Jan 23, 2015 8:28 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jan 25, 2015 9:47 PM Flag

    Why indeed?!? Answer that question, and you will win the Sherlock Holmes detective award for corporate obscurity clarification.

    This is all we really know for sure about the TC mine's future plans.

    1) They ARE maintaining "slow stripping" (whatever that means)
    2) "Slow Stripping" may or may not be cheaper than full care and maintenance?
    3) They ARE waiting on a formal decision announcement for phase 8 and the proposed land swap from the BLM.
    4) The ARE in a cash conservation mode this year.
    5) The price of moly is below where they would like to see it for resumption of full mining at the TC mine.
    6) Perron has stated publicly several times that it will cost $100 million to "strip" the TC mine.
    7) We have ZERO clarity into what that $100 million dollar number is actually comprised of.
    8) Based on all public, known documentation, no basis can be found for that $100 million dollar number.

    What limited conclusions can drawn from this data?

    1) There is information that we do not have, and that has not been released to the public concerning the stripping costs at TC.
    2) It seems "unlikely", although not impossible, that "slow stripping" would be allowed to #$%$ if there were not some plans in the works to bring the TC mine back online after a defined period of time.
    3) The lower cost of diesel fuel should materially lower the cost spent on "slow stripping" this year, unless the "slow stripping" is "slowly accelerated".

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Should I buy the bonds?

    by mikedunn1999 Jan 22, 2015 12:39 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jan 25, 2015 9:30 PM Flag

    I am not so sure it can be "turned on quickly" private. Quick to me being 1-2 quarters.
    Until that $350 slug of notes is retired, and the rest refinanced on favorable terms, I don't see TC doing anything with a second crusher, or anything meaningful at the TC mine (barring a huge uptick in the corresponding metals prices.

    Once that is done, many doors are open for TC, and they might chose to go through them one by one, or all at once....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Should I buy the bonds?

    by mikedunn1999 Jan 22, 2015 12:39 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jan 25, 2015 9:26 PM Flag

    TC does not have to generate enough cash to retire all it's debt, just retire enough to get favorable financing terms on the rest.....This could be the biggest misconception / fear holding TC down right now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jan 25, 2015 9:24 PM Flag

    LOL - really good analogy blake, love it!!!

    For the record, I am not "expecting" anything to materially move TC's PPS other than metals pricing this year. Not until they retire the 350 million and refi the rest do I expect it to go.

    Be nice if it were climbing this year on metal prices, or in Q4 on cash build and the anticipation of retiring and refinancing the current debt.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ICSG Forecast

    by just_matt_84 Jan 24, 2015 7:16 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jan 25, 2015 9:18 PM Flag

    Good info.
    You can also download a lot od fairly current production and cost info on minecost ( . ) c-0-m if you want to take the time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jan 25, 2015 9:02 PM Flag

    Private - the 100 million is really a disingenuous number. They make it sound like they have to spend 100 million just to hit ore to start mining. this is false. At least, none of the public reports show this. I do not why they are insisting on using this number, unless to possibly make them a less attractive takeover target? Or possibly, they just don't care right now. I thought the break even, before lower fuel costs, was between $8-%9 /lb for oxide, there has been a gradual "creep" up in that number the last 2 years by management without any corresponding information to back it up. Just talk.
    Maybe they are holding something back and that number is correct?
    Maybe they they are just throwing out an ultra conservative number?
    IDK.
    It appears that as of right now, Perron wants to see $12-$13/lb or better, or no #$%$ the restart, yes?
    But curiously, they are maintaining a "slow strip" plan in place at the TC mine, which seems to contradict what they are saying. Seems Odd, no?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jan 25, 2015 8:52 PM Flag

    Thanks Bob!
    So we are back to - watching copper and gold prices for a while. Other than that, or a buyer, I don't see a catalyst here for a major move in 2015. Cash build will continue, albeit at a slower pace than anticipated until prices rise. I don't believe the official BLM decisions will have much impact on the PPS, although I reserve the right to be wrong lol.
    We'll all basically basically be watching the business of mining for a while.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jan 22, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    Copper was at midpoint. I assume the crusher is at midpoint. OPEX however, was overstated. We shall see how 2015 breaks out.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Copper up almost 6 cents today........

    by ultraific3 Jan 21, 2015 4:25 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jan 22, 2015 11:09 AM Flag

    Gotcha, my bad. In that case, you could very well be correct.
    Hard to predict what the traders are going to do.
    But eventually they will not be able to trump the fundamentals of supply and demand.
    And eventually = sooner than later.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Ultra the fraud

    by arnoldboils Jan 21, 2015 3:31 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jan 22, 2015 11:06 AM Flag

    Too Funny!!!!

    And if TC had no debt, THEN where would the market be valuing TC???????????????

    Ultra is saying the market is valuing TC on "WHAT IS".

    You are trying to introduce "WHAT IF"

    What if TC had a working Diamond mione in New Jersy, then what would the market value TC at ? LOL !

    Apples and oranges dude, apples and oranges.

    My 5 year old niece understands this concept better than that.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Copper up almost 6 cents today........

    by ultraific3 Jan 21, 2015 4:25 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jan 22, 2015 10:58 AM Flag

    And after the the last couple of weeks YOUR opinion means ZERO on this board. ZERO.
    Also, I re-read the all the public information on the bond repurchases. It appears that you ARE wrong about those as well.

    And as for Ultra being "wrong" about a SIX CENTS swing on copper, WHO gives a flying squirrel? Six cents means squat anyway. Is that what you are reduced to now that you've exhausted all your personal attacks? Splitting very very fine meaningless hairs.

    Copper is ruled by traders and Chinese Hedge Funds right now. If you go and read the actual production numbers and what's being bought and sold, the price of copper is currently divorced from the actual, probable supply and demand. It is all being controlled by futures buying and selling. Just like oil. There is no enormous surplus of oil, certainly not enough to warrant oil being worth half of what it was 2 months ago. Traders are playing. What WILL be worth watching is who is left without a chair to sit on when the music stops. That's going to be interesting. Here is a clue, no one's going to be talking about 6 cents either way.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jan 22, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    You are wrong. And even worse, irrelevant. Splitting hairs over a six cent move? Wow.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Confused state of copper

    by tmguven Jan 22, 2015 10:34 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jan 22, 2015 10:49 AM Flag

    It's all traders right now - ZERO fundamentals. Might as well not even track it for a couple of months. Let the traders play, they are going to do it anyway!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    two things................

    by bestguesser Jan 21, 2015 10:32 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jan 22, 2015 10:47 AM Flag

    I think some analysts were looking at that - why they would do so, I am not sure.
    I concur with Ultra's statement above and barring a windfall revenue year this year for TC (Say the price of copper jumps to $4 or maybe gold hits $1700, and stays there for six months or something - man NOW wouldn't THAT be cause to pop a cork on a nice bottle of scotch!!!) I believe that scenario is exactly how it will play out, and how it should play out.

    Once those notes are paid and the rest refinanced, this becomes a completely different looking company.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Crusher "quotes"

    by ekretiree01 Jan 21, 2015 8:58 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jan 22, 2015 10:37 AM Flag

    I believe that is typically what they are used for?
    Yes, the report should be interesting.
    There has been some speculation in that past that LOM was conservative and it could increase 4 to 8 years, based on some things in the old technical report.
    Not sure how extensively they have been drilling to verify that.
    I am sure they have had other, pressing issues to deal with last year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Ultra the fraud

    by arnoldboils Jan 21, 2015 3:31 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jan 22, 2015 10:29 AM Flag

    Annie/Bernie/Sirline/Whatever
    YOU said:
    "trying to belittle me instead of showing why you think the post is "wrong" just does not cut it."

    That's pretty darn funny coming from you. One of the funniest things I've read on here, actually.


    YOU ALSO said:
    "I won't get in the gutter with you"

    That might be even funnier, you would have to try and CLIMB UP to get out of the gutter YOU'VE been wallowing in the last few days.....


    And THEN YOU said:
    "but I will say that you are wrong, and that your willingness to defend ultra when he is wrong does not speak well about your credibility.":

    Totally and completely your opinion there, man, totally and completely. And after the the last couple of weeks YOUR opinion means ZERO on this board. ZERO.
    Also, I re-read the all the public information on the bond repurchases. It appears that you ARE wrong about those.

    And as for Ultra being "wrong" about a SIX CENTS swing on copper, WHO gives a flying squirrel? Six cents means squat anyway. Is that what you are reduced to now that you've exhausted all your personal attacks? Splitting very very fine meaningless hairs.

    Your posts speak far louder about YOUR character than any of mine do about my credibility Arnie, or whatever your real font is.

    You have become tiresome, juvenile and boring.

    Goodbye

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Brokerages Forecasts

    by gatr55 Jan 21, 2015 9:02 AM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jan 21, 2015 9:49 PM Flag

    But they reserve the right to revise it as often needed, as they are always correct in hindsight, LOL.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Copper up almost 6 cents today........

    by ultraific3 Jan 21, 2015 4:25 PM
    dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jan 21, 2015 9:47 PM Flag

    Got to go with foogie on this, we are probably not going to see TC at $3 in Q2, maybe not Q3 or even Q4 unless copper pricing rockets upward (and copper COULD do that, I just don't know if it WILL do that).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

MIL
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