No doubt many on WS ..the lefty's & the politicians hope & pray you are right SS. In the macro picture though brixit is a shot across the bow of future unpleasant disruptions that will increase market volatility, act as a headwind & lead to more S&P corrective action in the weeks & months ahead. Will the lemmings buy the power structure hype that all is well in smallville regardless ? DON"T BET ON IT ! Greece was a financial wake up call for the E.U. now you have an unprecedented immigration crisis infiltrated by terrorist's bent on killing in the host country. Another event like the recent slaughter in France & the populace will be in the street's demanding change. Same for the rest of the E.U.
Add to this the collapse of venezuela, the problems in Brazil , mid east , russia etc etc & pretty soon the accumulation of hot spot's takes a toll. Not to even mention the debt problems globally. Thinking these "minor" problem's will pass like a small kidney stone in a short time frame with min. disruption is not only ignorant [nothing personal] but just plain stupid ! There is NO politician, C.B. god, or government agency that will or can bail your young behind out of this "quackmire" ! It's the same crew for the most part that caused the problems in the first place. Understand where we are headed & do a little something now to mitigate the pain later. BTW, how's bruce handling the transition ?
Almost forgot....GL2U2 BTW
Like I said before, anything that upsets the power structure, & the left wing one world whack jobs this much is a step in the right direction bud !!!!
Blood bath ? Probably a little overstated [as usual] kored. Serious shorts are probably hedged via index etc. to start with. Second, currency traders, from the big bank trading desks to the home gamer's, to the book makers that got caught on the wrong side of this call will make any loss's from HL short's look like pocket change before its over ! I would also caution as temping as it might feel to shop tomorrow for some "common bargains" in any stock's you better think twice if counting on a fast flip. A.-The "rulers" of the exchange just might decide to stop trading altogether without warning if breakers are hit....leaving YOU holding the long bag ! Plus I seriously doubt dislocations in global markets will be over in a day or two, in fact it could take weeks if not month's before we get any stabilization. Most central banks, including ours don't have many if ANY tool's left in the box to work with. LOOK BEFORE YOU LEAP BUDDY & GL2U2
Right in one respect kid, the black swan already had landed in 2008 you were just so busy posting nonsense every day here you had no clue where the world was headed.. Now it's official, the brits exit the EU. the S&P futures down over 100 points as I post, GLD up BIG time etc etc. ! So how is the O'bummer responsible for brixit ? Not directly but a symptom of the illness, that being that the working middle class in most countries have had a gut full of the centralized gov. power grab along with the corruption...along with most multi national corp. Whats trickling down is NOT prosperity ! Congrats to the brits for finding their testicles! You made my day !
Let's hope they are not the last to wake up & smell the stench,,,& do something about it ! Speaking of testicles SS, I recall you betting 2 of your own & losing both times, anything left dangling to bet ?
The only downside to this is now we will hear 69 post's per day by kored extrapolating this event to the fictional future fortunes of HL ! Ride the PM bronco while it last's I guess but better keep the one good eye on the dollar strength & short int. numbers, trees don't grow to the heavens without corrections GL2U2
If you had any insight at all wise one SS you would have seen the 2008 -09 financial crises coming....YOU DID NOT, therefore you are just another stooge that trusts in your govmnt. Nothing personal just fact. GL2U2
The so called "Expert pollsters" say its too close to call SS shrimp boat captain. Regardless don't be too hard on the brit's, the mere fact that approx. 50% still want to take their country back say's a LOT !!
Contrast this with the U.S. where approx. 50% of current moron voter's seem willing to vote for a communist/socialist....... or a self serving second rate lawyer that's a pathological liar to boot ! Then the same stooges will be the first to belly ache when they see their tax bill & complain about the economy. You would think after 2 terms of the progressive Muslim called O'bummer they might wise up. Don't look like it though. This country is in such deep poop buddy I seriously doubt even the Donald T. marketing machine could turn it around !
I did learn something new today though in listening to the Yell-on wind blowing session.....the fed, & the administration in general needs a more "Diverse" make up ! LMAO
Shulman, hedging a portion of production @ recent prices might not be such a bad idea right now ! Don't forget most countries, including the U.S. still seem to be fighting a slow growth deflationary environment, despite the efforts to reflate. IMHO the next up leg in PM's, when we get it, is pretty much dependent on some sort of financial/political shock/scare NOT inflation. Just when those inflation number's appear is anybody's guess. We could see a 1050 handle[or lower] on gold by years end in which case any hedging right now in hindsight might not look so dumb ! Regardless don't worry about the banksters, worry about more acquisitions that dilute.....but add to production which benefits mngmnt. bonus's !
"Weather" it turns out a "golden shower" for longs ...or golden shelter remains to be seen Fitt. Those large players close to the trade had record size short positions last I looked while some notable large speculators soros, druck etc. had gotten pretty bullish. Which direction this resolves itself over the next few month's remains to be seen. Those longs, especially recent arrivals just better hope we don#$%$ a replay of the summer/fall of 2008-early 2009 action where the mining stocks were "DECIMATED" on a financial crisis of fear that was pre-empted by a crashing S&P.............great buying/trading opportunity in early '09 for those with dry powder & an iron gut but pretty painful for existing longs ! GL2U2
Could it be the older men had prostate problems & left early to secure a urinal position before the event crowd dispersed ? Although I trust the "BIG GUY" way more then ANYTHING found on WS I admit to not having a clue to your question....so, feel free to enlighten me crown. & GL2U2
There you go again SS, throwing cold water [& Jack squat] on koreds born again never ending pump machine. Realize buddy, this could turn out to be the longest & slowest PM rally under way in decades, ....or an early 2008 summer replay of nothing more than a dead cat PM bounce followed by new lows early next year ! Pick your poison, personally I think it's probably prudent to be 100% in dirty old cash with NO exposure to ANY equities for the next 6 mo. or so. GL 2 you & jack !
Everyone KNOWS what Jesus wrote on the ground that shook all the idjut's up....."when the time comes don't be an ignorant chump....VOTE TRUMP" ! Less you spend eternity in hell watching Clintoon's & a burning sanders tearing things up ! JOHN 9-1-1
Fitt G. I'm not against a reasonable amount of growth, providing it's not always at the common S/H's expense, & the timing & synergy is good What we have here is empire building, based on...promises/faith that SOMEDAY it will ALL come together & SH's will be rewarded, It's the amzn M.O. IMO, don't fret over near term bottom line profit number's, div's, stock buy back's etc., we are investing wisely for YOUR future. After a few plus years it get's a little old. One reason I stopped trading amzn some year's ago. A 700$ stock & where's the beef ? We can all speculate on the minutia of details involved in this latest acquisition but frankly it has little to no positive bearing on the nearer term S/P. HL stock will be pumped, supported...& shorted by new owners locking in profit's until the ink is dry in the 3rd qtr. In the meantime look for MORE/higher capex plans that will subdue bottom line profit number's, at least shorter term. If by then PM's have not caught a BIG break & ripped considerably higher I find little motivation to put serious fiat in this pup now. Too much emotion & volatility involved in both PM's & HL right now. Wait for a "blue light" sale price to pounce, & the fog to clear a little...or just pass & sit in dirty old cash........."IMHO" GL
"More shares of outstanding stock almost every year" ???? Funny how that works huh toro ? Seems like every time the common rallies into that 4-5$ zone HL feels the need to dilute the stock & buy something...but then again it's only with the common S/H fiat so no big deal ! Plus mngmnt. bonus's are paid on production number's so that just might be an incentive to keep the growth rolling. Was the acquisition a good buy ? Very long term time will tell...this deal might look like genius. On the other hand if this O/B condition right now in the miner's & PM's in general turns out to be an intermediate [?} top & the trade loses MO & go's south on higher int. rates & a higher dollar I would bet this latest acquisition by HL acts like an anchor & leads to a significant correction in stock price. IT'S HAPPENED BEFORE ! As always, the faithful in HL that are buried in this pup financially will BE buried with it....while the index player's & short term "MO" flipper's will flee the scene. IMHO it's probably a good time to lighten the load if over exposed...read sell any rallies & have the patience to wait for lower prices to buy back in ! ...a missed opportunity is not equivalent to looking at real loss's, & NO, i'm not short just uneasy enough over recent development's to be FLAT [no position] right now GL2U2
As usual SS, quick to respond but a little off the mark. A...Druckenmiller was one of the BEST money managers on the street,,,,FACT ! He's not one of the regular CNBC blue sky pumper's etc, in fact he usually keep's a very low profile. B...I heard the interview live, Fitt G's description of his remarks/opinion is accurate. C...I can't ever remember in the past decades Stan sounding so LONG TERM bearish on the market or on this countries financial future. D...While it's true the miner's can diverge from PM prices when extremely O/B, probably 95% of the time they WILL track physical PM. In this case your term "paper assets" is mute. PM's go up.....most mining stocks go up as a group. SIMPLE !
Timing is ALWAY'S the tricky part & that's the rub. For those true believers in PM's, & those that can afford the always present corrections the longer term end game looks bright, as I have been saying for the last several year's. For short term trader's it's going to be a challenge IMHO. Honestly you might try tempering your neg. a bit...I would hate to see you having to eat some road kill crow a year from now. GL2U2
Why not just copy & post the whole article rashmuss & save the suspense ? Personally speaking I have not been inclined to buy HL for quite a few weeks now for a number of reasons. First the long trade is long in the tooth & the stock is WAY O/B & churning right now.....Second, my suspicions about a rate bump sooner than most expected looks more likely every day, perhaps even in June [& maybe not the last !] Third, even GS now has jumped on board with a bullish gold call...along with tons of other PM hypsters. Fourth, not a ton of folks think the dollar will get stronger nearer term, which IMO just make it that much more likely. Fifth, HL seem's more then fully priced at these levels given the current price of their product's....with a div. hardly worth mentioning we will need to see another substantial leg up in PM prices IMO to keep the recent "MO" going much longer & capitalize on the HL leverage.
In short, at this point it boils down to mostly a safe harbor/fear trade, more than ever, something that might or might not materialize before the current enthusiasm cool's & the PM trade begins to head south. Investing more then 10-20% of your "serious" fiat in ANY miner right now is IMHO, a VERY risky bet . Otherwise It becomes a marriage, an emotional issue the clouds the objectivity. Just keep one thing in mind, no bell will be rung at the top, & Mr. market could care less what your break even point is !
AND ATTENTION OLD rashmuss..PLEASE do not buy back in on the first shallow pullback & jinx everyone else ! Remember that's EXACTLY how you got buried in this pup in the first place !
Clark, the macro economic picture right now is not showing signs that we are on the brink of a recession...more a slower growth & steady as she go's is the picture. Don't forget either tomorrow we get a SLUG of economic number's. You might also consider the FRB "Could" already have a heads up on those numbers & the overall picture is good enough to warrant a small bump in June, which they are already prepping the markets for. That old "Data dependent" line wind blowing IMO is wearing pretty thin on WS & probably the reason the dow/S&P look's rather shaky right now. Hell, at this point the dow might take off higher if they thought the fed was confident enough to raise rates a notch ! Besides that the inflation picture seem's to be showing some life lately, a small pre-emptive bump would probably be a wise move right now. Just something to consider buddy !
Your employer Verizon is still on strike RAMBLOW in case your not aware so better get back to that picket line & help the cause...daylight is burning & besides your upsetting the board with your "Uncanny hindsight" opinions which are invalid! GL2U2
Cramer is not really relative kored but Druckenmiller could be. He was interviewed at that S. cal conference today & was pumping the gold trade ! Of course how much of the pumping is just self serving since he has been holding for a while now is questionable but he IS bullish on the trade. He's also a highly regarded fund manager with an outstanding track record, usually under the radar & low key. I was a little surprised he's still so optimistic on the trade, citing he expected some serious financial/currency problem's to start appearing the next year or two.
That's the good new's for long's. The not so good new's, the interviews today with the feds Bullard & SF fed pres, john williams. BOTH seem more optimistic about the economy for the rest of the year, & BOTH are hinting, rather strongly IMO, that 2 rate hikes are still very much on the table by this dec. WS has the odds of that happening at around 14%......big gap & a VERY big surprise possible with the june meeting ! To be honest in reading between the lines it sounded like they were more prepping the market's for a hike, than the usual "all is well steady as she goes wind blowing" we usually hear. How the general market act's if it happens in june is anybody's guess but we could see some serious anxiety in the market leading up to the meeting again, "IMHO"....my usual sound advice, don't bet fiat you can't afford to see go south in a decline, & don't margin/leverage the bet ! GL2ALL
In this RARE instance "MOE" you are probably close to the truth ! Look no further than the dark prince...our fearless president. A product of Ha-vad with the intelligence, & stubbornness of a mule. BTW, My apologies to any REAL mules here that might be offended with the comparison.
So in the meantime this 100-150% run in HL so far this year looks mighty long in the tooth..."IMHO". In fact it might be up to the tooth ferry [ & the fed] to keep the "MO" going much longer. At the least a pullback to the 2.75 area look's very likely. Regardless anybody that bought a "SLUG" of HL in the 1.50-2.00 zone & rode the dog all the way to the 3.90 area before selling deserves a BIG WELL DONE ! I know it's hard to believe on these miner's boards but .....BRAGGING RIGHTS WITH NO FIBBING PLEASE.
Tulsa,rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated (thank goodness] only very briefly looked at the HL or any board for weeks now....TOO MANY PROJECT'S that need attention on the new/old homestead, like build a new shop/garage, check /repair fencing, tend to a good sized year round creek through my acreage etc etc. etc. After a lifetime living in suburbia CA. surrounded by lefty/progressive wingnut's, silly-cone valley tech heads & illegal immigrant's I finally made the move out of the state last fall to "gods Country" HaHa
Winter WAS kinda challenging but not totally unexpected since I had a mountain cabin in CA. for years that got more snow then here. Being a widower in the "70' age range does not make it any easier either, but one get's to the point you just can't take your surroundings any longer.....besides that without some kind of change & challenge most have a tendency to just go dormant & decay when they approach retirement age..my only regret is my life circumstances pretty much prohibited this kind of move 20-30 yrs ago.
Anyway I still follow the PM trade daily, just on "leave" right now ...& frankly as promising as the future for PM's look right now I still have concern's that the fed will surprise the market's with a bump in rates one of these weeks & give us one more "opportunity" to buy lower ! Plus the fact with HL pushing 4 it look's MORE then fully valued right now with downside risk pretty high, be careful & GL2U2 !