Fitt.mary the only part of that question that's not even debatable is the moron part ! Buffet demonstrated that when he injected himself into the 2008 presidential campaign & had no reservation's about openly endorsing O'bummer, the biggest liar, the least qualified & most un american president this country has ever seen !
I'm sure the "oracle" & his billionaire buddies on WS made money alright, at the expense of the other 98% of the population ! I see your not quite 1 month old & have limited memory here but with such impaired judgement as warren demonstrated in 2008 why in the world hold him up as some kind of authority on PM's ? . The alternative explanation to moron is warren put his personal finances ahead of the best interest's of this country when he pumped O'bummer, which makes him complicit in creating the mess we have today.
It pain's me to say it but I think even capt brine shrimp AKA seasonal has better sense....& that's not saying much believe me ! GL2U's2
There you go again shoe, throwing cold water on dream's ! Remember the good old day's a few year's back ? When HL actually did .12-.15 for a couple qtrs' seem's like a lifetime ago. Will we ever see those number's again ? Probably not in the next 12mo. unless Lead/zinc are trading in the 1.10-1.20+ range & gold & silver retest old high's...maybe then we see 10-12$ SP. Regardless the road to those prices would be plenty choppy IMHO. The pump factor/enthusiasm is running very high right now with bug's, while we are a long way from those previous level's. Then one has to assume HL will start the hedge machine up as prices rise to lock in survival finances. Plus probably get the shopping list out for more acquisition's...read some add. debt/dilution. Of course any rise in inflation spell's higher operating expenses. Then we have CB's/gov. which are no friend of PM's. When they see the yellow light's flashing O/B/bubble they hit it with derivative paper raise margin rates... or both killing the parade ! At this point IMO what we really need to sustain a major lift-off is an "event". financial or geopolitical that really scares the bejesus out of everyone on BOTH sides of the pond. In the meantime trade it don't marry it ! GL2U's2
BOD Taylor sell's 9K common @ 3.34 yesterday. Only 20% of holding's but a nice gesture anyway. I suspect he will put that fiat to good use being an intelligent man. Maybe braces for the daughter's teeth, a new security system to protect against "bug's", or even some landscaping improvement's. 30K does not go far in today's world so I hope he invest's it wisely ! God help america.
Evidently "speculative" buying has picked up considerably in the last month. In Plade/Plat close to level's we saw at the top! Gold & silver close behind. For a contrarian trader/bottom fisherman not the ideal setup to buy in here that's for sure. O.K. for "MO" player's willing to buy high & hoping for higher prices though. Regardless it's a low conviction, high risk bet IMHO for anyone not a hard core "bug".....at least short term !
Funny how all the talking head's dis. central bank's, int. rates, GDP, inflation, fiat index etc. when talking PM's & the S&P, which is relevant for sure, but little to NO mention lately of potential U.S. political risk where wash. is concerned. The real surprises generally come where the majority least expect it so maybe this time PM safe haven on a 10+% S&P correction work's out ? The casino is still open.
"Don't know sheet from shinola", Shrimp capt. never did latoka. At least if history on this board teaches us anything. Same old broken record, smart mouthing anyone that would post a positive case for metal's, short, or longer term. Honestly he/she sound's like a person that got sucked in near the top, is seriously under water & by bashing any positive scenario's is, in reality, hoping to increase the bullish replies, drive the price up & get bailed out. Real genius at work, at least in one sick little "soothsayer" mind ! An out of work wannabe journalist posing as a comedian......in a locked re-hab facility, not to be taken too seriously ! Either that or just sick....period ! GL2U's2
Larry my boy, I hear you. And having watched thing's economic closely since the early 1970's I DO understand what is going on. You are basing your assumption's on "normal" economic number's/times grounded in reality/math ! All i'm pointing out is these are NOT normal economic condition's by any stretch due to technology, demographic's, manipulation, politic's based on lies etc etc etc. In fact this is far from any normal recovery---period. I would agree that eventually it hit's the fan, the question though is how many more month's or year's pass before that happen's ? In the meantime with the economy struggling along at a sub par pace, A fiat index that seem's glued to the 80 level, bank lending/money velocity still a LONG way's from the go-go day's, & headline inflation low where's the beef this year to drive PM's much higher shorter term ? We will need to see some additional positive fundamental's develop very soon IMO to avoid more dead money lower prices in the miner's over the next couple month's. GL2U's 2
What do you want chump, ice cream over your chopped liver ? Nothing fundamentally has changed on earning's expectation's...except some very questionable optimism here. PE still close to 70 right now on an estimated nickle this year ! At best "rich" fair value, now it' depend's on the greater fool theory mo-mo gang & remaining short's to cover to see the big $4 level. And pray bond rates don't get a second wind in the mean time to detour the parade !
When looking at the S&P chart overlaid with the fed easy money policy of the last 5-6 year's...it's about as close a correlation as you can find, up up up ! PM's however have been a different story the last couple year's. Then you have the bond market which everyone seem's to dismiss as going nowhere, as actually outperforming the DJI in recent year's. While most will opine on metal demand, manipulation, poor mngmnt., & some what wild speculation over QE forever & future inflation prospect's, it's really future fed policy in relation to tightening that will determine the swing's in PM's/miner's IMHO.
"IF" today's headline job number's, & interest rate pop are a shot across the bow of a improving economic outlook the fed just might start to tighten a LOT sooner than most bug's now expect , like early 2015 ! Especially if rhino's take the senate in nov. & a more favorable economic POLICY is expected where the FRB has so far has had to do the heavy lifting running up some huge position's they have to be anxious to start unwinding.
Even these short term oriented market's of today makes investment's based on the next 6-8 month's. Bottom line, if perception of higher int.rates sooner than later start to take hold it could at the least be a serious headwind shorter term for PM market's. S&P continues up slowly on better growth expectation's, money start's coming out of bond's & PM's & head's for growth stock's. Plus the fact HL is still in O/B territory right now. Some exposure still makes sense, whole hog in right now could be high risk despite
this recent move ! Date it don't marry it, the divorce could be expensive !
Old new's bug...that was his pump yesterday on fast money. Today's pump was on the new fox business channel by some gold council optimist talking head, rec. buy the index's, buy physical buy everything ! PM's "might" be going to da moon!
Personally i'm thinking HL might do $20 by fall, or $2 ? At this point does it really make a difference? I like your enthusiasm though. It help's waldo's mental condition !
Maybe even time to say...screw the dead money miner's with no return & buy a real equity that pay's a reliable div, one that amount's to more than a star bucks coffee, & has mngmnt. that appreciates the SH, at least a little bit ! Of course that wouldn't be as much fun as snorkeling under fiat water most of the time would it shoe?
My only hope is that their might be a few good trades in these dog's before "expiration date" arrives for those of us north of 60. In the meantime most need to learn to trade the crab crawl or watch paint dry !
You might be closer to the truth than you realize old crust. Think about it. Let's just azzume for a minute that metal's don't move a lot from here, in either direction the rest of the year & CF is consistent. Do you really think SH will see any of that on the bottom line ? stock buyback, higher div. lower PE etc.? Frankly I have my doubt's. Instead any additional cash build is likely to be used for another acquisition..which will also require some additional dilution. The headline will be "HL increasing reserves another 25%+ huge potential when prices rise". Also not on the headline, management bonus compensation due to rise big on increased production number's....regardless of where prices go ! That part will be buried in the archives of the new's...if you can find it at all !
The REAL window of opportunity here will be when metal prices ZOOM higher BEFORE mngmnt. can spend the temporary windfall ! That you can count on happening..SOME TIME!
The only thing telling is your aversion to the truth Pinocchio ! The only thing skittering sideways is your immature brain, & the only thing "seasoned" are your dirty short's John boy since moms not around to do the wash. Now put all that journalistic talent to work & get busy writing this month's 1 page bulletin rag for Elgin state hospital quest's. The REAL seasonal adjustment need's some new reading material since he got busted for plagiarizing all the metal bug's blog's.
"the only people interested are blue collar hillbillies who went long", If that's the case seasonal why in waldo's world have YOU been a fixture on this board for the past 2+ year's ? Are you hoping to break even ? Sure sound's like it !
"IMO you admit"? You dufus I have posted for at least a month that the building short int. when HL was oversold & under 3 would likely power at least a short term rally, & NO, I did not participate mainly because I was not convinced the fundamental picture had improved that much. In fact besides maybe two short term flip trades in the last 6mo. I have NO core position long or short to break even on right now...that's called being FLAT BTW.
Last correction, if you remember I was the board worry wart 2 yrs. ago talking about extreme O/B condition's in this stock at the high's, to be careful , when most were talking $20 was right around the corner & didn't want to hear it ! Club & "original" seasonal [waldo] among them. Didn't quite work out that way did it ? Point is I have little, to NOTHING in common with either one....get your fact's straight capt. shrimp. In the meantime good bashing/ fishing !
Were now only about 1 DTC over avg. Not the whole picture by any mean's but as I posted previously this last run up was helped to a large degree by covering action. I think we can safely say the same is probably true about the PM's in general....a snap back powered by an over sold condition. Is there enough left to get us much past the recent high's ? Time will tell.
But just in case that is an "honest" question be warned of a few thing's especially where HL is the subject in question. It's been a long time since HL option BUYER'S have seen a smooth road to profit's..puts or call's. The majority of time the seller's have been the consistent winner's, they sell call's on the rallies/M.O., & sell put's near the low's on pessimism to lock in the higher premium prices & an extra div. so to speak In short resulting in max. pain for both put & call buyer's. Since the miner's are such a volatile affair run on emotion's the swing's are profitable for seller's of option's that have discipline.
One important point I don't believe that article mentioned...the stock substitute factor in that higher vol. One of the reason's for higher option volume lately in many stock's is simply a lack of confidence in Mr. market in general. Folk's are afraid of missing an upside move but don't want to pay up for the common stock. Big leverage=big risk ! At least in owning the common outright you live to play [or wish cast] another day. Should HL close @ 3.50- in 4 week's the party is over for the option buyer..period..
A simple analogy for someone living in vegas.....the option seller's are the "house", & you the buyer end up the retail mark the majority of time ! On the other hand small miracles, like HL hitting 4 before july expiration do happen some times, even in HL ! If one is confident of that, then you jump in immed. & buy a fistfull of those 3.50 call's. Just remember the golden rule here...there is NO free lunch trade !
Interesting take on demand /supply but excuse me if i'm a bit skeptical of that running the mine's up in the nearer term. HL is obviously a large producer & they plan on increasing silver production at least 10% this year alone-& that projection was made when silver was under $20. I realize industrial demand run's roughly 50% but frankly both the investment, coin, & jewelry etc. demand also might falter if the economy remain's weak. I would also point out zinc, lead, iron ore, & CU. at this point sure are not signaling economic strength anytime soon either. Regardless the PM's are an emotional trade run on "MoMo" price action, inflation expectation's, etc., Also important is ETF/inst. buying of course. Supply/ demand fundamental's not only have a lot variables but hing in large part on GDP expectation's. Many here were posting the bullish supply/demand picture continually for over the last 3+ year's, since HL was over 10 in early 2011. Not a dig BTW, just an observation ! Bottom line, it's all about the conviction level one has. As a trader I evaluate on a daily basis, especially with the PM trade, I very seldom chase "MO", & as far as shoeman talking me out of participating in this pop, perish the the thought larry, Since it's MY fiat at risk it's my call entirely...good or bad! GL
Yes I saw that shoe, since it's such a benefit to driver's maybe they should raise that proposed tax to .24 ! Or better yet why not just .50 even ? Honest to god SMH !
In the first place expressing my opinion's about why I have turned cautious on the trade the last few month's is not bashing. Second of all, although tempted by the oversold condition in HL & somewhat high short int. I made a very conscious decision, based on the fundamental's [read confidence level] NOT to put on a long trade when we were at the 2.80- level. Also plainly stated in more than one post. Third, I have been trading long enough that I don't have to lie or exaggerate about my trades, something more than a few on these board's might learn to do.
Frankly I can only recall making one or two "lunch money" size day trades in HL the last few month's, likewise posted. Same with my current flat position..before AND after we broke above 3.10 ! If you were not a novice investor you would understand that a short term missed trading opportunity does not equate to lost money. In short I trade, I don't invest & wish cast. I also drive a trading vehicle that go''s in both direction's with most stock's..long & short. Your assumption's with little or no evidence to support remind's me of little capt. shrimp boat's silliness here almost every day ! In the meantime GL but you might consider that today's action could have a TON to do with that over 22 MIL. shares short heading for the exit !