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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

drdoctor111 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 2, 2014 10:24 AM Member since: Jul 8, 2013
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  • Never seen a company get an Orphan Status on a drug and see this type of lack of movement. How about throwing us bone here. We are starving!

  • drdoctor111 by drdoctor111 Aug 26, 2014 2:48 PM Flag

    Arena gets paid on bottles shipped less the estimate of discounts + an adjustment of actual discounts from the previous ¼.
    3 facts the will help cause an earnings beat.
    Adjustments to discounts.
    Bottles shipped
    Adjustments to discounts.
    By reviewing last two ¼’s we can see last ¼ Arena was paid 400k in adjustments and 200K in adjustments the prior. Which means slower sales have resulted in too much being taken out for discounts albeit temporarily, If this is not considered it would lower the average pay per script for Arena. Don’t read spencer but his estimate did not account for this Im sure. The result is about 8-10% under estimate of what Arena gets paid per script.

    discounts conclusion=My guess is last ¼ over estimated discounts again by 400 to 600 K an adjustment to discounts

    Bottles Shipped
    We saw last ¼ IMS showed 110,000 scripts reported and 88,000 shipped. That is a short fall of 22,000 bottles.(if you also take into account a 20 -30 adjustment that = about 28,000)
    There is no direct relationship from bottles shipped to sales.
    This has worked out to Arenas advantage in the 1st month of sales. They shipped 52,000 bottles but only sold around 2,000 scripts.
    Bottles Shipped Conclusion=28,000 bottles in sales missed = 1.4 million in sales roughly
    According to web MD there is about 56,000 pharmacies in the US. Which happens to be the approximate number of bottles shipped in our 1st ¼. Which would allow 1 bottle per retail location.
    As the scripts numbers climb stocking needs will also increase. As a small test I asked at two local pharmacies one had 1.5 bottles on hand. The other 1 bottle.
    Stocking is a plus or minus variable that could affect sales -1.4 million to + 3 million.
    So the current effect of the above factors has underestimated actual sale by approx. 2million dollars last ¼.
    This of course can show a nice percentage jump in earnings that just happens to coincide with test results for BelPhen and Smoking.

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