That is a 33% haircut!
I will be honest, I am not much into just carbonated water. However, I do like the vast majority of the SodaStream flavors to created my flavored carbonated water! I also love the flexibility it gives me to customize my own flavors! I just don't think it's a one to one comparison when comparing GMCR to SODA when you consider how home centric the coffee market is compared to the carbonated water market. Coffee drinkers see coffee as a necessity, something they would almost die without with it being more cheaply made in home. But, I am with ya, SODA has a bright future, even if it only penetrates 5% of US households!
I agree with you completely, although I don't try to forecast the penetration and timeframe it will take. I was just saying GMCR operates in a different market, one that is very habit driven and one that has built in advantages to home availability. If they are trying to apply that same model to their Cold Keurig design and expect the same results then they will be sorely mistaken, in my opinion. SODA has a great business model in this regard and that's why I am an investor here.
GMCR operates in a superior market, home brewed coffee. What makes it superior is the convenience in home brewing coffee and it happens to be a product that millions and millions DEPEND UPON at various points during the day. Whereas someone can decide to keep drinking canned or 2 liter (1.5 liters are now out) sodas, most can't decide to open a pre-made cup of coffee unless they are going out to get it! How inconvenient! Now, GMCR won't have that luxury when it comes to the home Soda-maker market so price, taste, ease of use, and convenience will all play a factor in their success or failure. In this market, SODA definitely has the upper hand and, what we currently know about the future of the GMCR Cold Keurig, that upper hand doesn't look to be changing from my perspective!
Looks like we are setting up for a strong close... I don't know that that means anything special, it would just be a nice development!
Not exactly... I was long a few stocks on margin and short a stock that covered the margin positions. So, I was using my shrot position to fund cover my margin positions and thus not paying interest on those margined long positions.
Of course, this all works just fine as long as your short position doesn't increase in price. So, even if you hold a short and a long position in the same stock as a hedge, if you are determined to hold your short position then that demonstrates a long-term bearish position, even if you are trading a long position. In that situation, your LONG position becomes your hedge but you still have a bearish outlook for the company stock!
If/when the company turns around then it makes no sense to hold the short and thus should be squeezed by the return of positive outlooks and bullish sentiment. But, that's must my thoughts.
I guess, using my "long" mentality, even if I held a significant profit in a company, if I thought the investment had reached close proximity to its potential, I would close out that position and move to another more lucrative investment.
Similarly, the only reason I would continue to hold an extremely profitable short position would be to watch it experience further declines. If I thought it would eventually go to 0 then I would continue to hold, and wait for it to prove me wrong. Otherwise, I would cover and move on but that is just my line of thinking. There thinking has certainly worked for them up to this point!
So, if they essentially never plan to close their short position then would you say they eventually expect the price to essentially keep trending lower? Do you think they are waiting for some concrete evidence of SODA setting the standard and becoming a larger player in the US before they consider closing out their short position?
I am just now seeing the KitchenAid systems arrive in stores (only seen at BBB so far). I was impressed and would certainly have been interested in one if I hadn't already owned a machine from SodaStream! KitchenAid has made a very fine soda machine. I really like it and so did my friends when I posted it onto Facebook! It certainly fills an upper-end market if one is going to develop!
You would think some major player would be wanting to establish themselves with a market leader. Whether it's Pepsi or DPS or someone outside the box like SBUX, you would think the value is apparent. Heck, I wouldn't put it past Coke to even make moves towards SODA if there is nothing stopping them. Why would any major player like that necessarily want to tie themselves to just one platform, such as the currently non-existent Cold Keurig.
It seems people knowing SodaStream is ON THE LIST is enough to push us higher in AH. Interesting development... makes you wonder if the rest of the players are going to just sit around and watch Coke make all of the moves?
My closest Walmart had the summer display but it was recently taken down. Now they have their small endcap as the only SodaStream display. Yes, it is kind of disappointing but it was just that small endcap when I first purchased my machine. But when they took down the large display they put alot of syrups on disocunt so I stocked up! Other than a few slect ones here and there (bought a natural sugar grapefruit syrup from BBB a few days ago) I am fully stocked for months!
I hope they expand to the larger display again for the holidays but I am tryign to raise awareness with my Facebook friends, especially using the new KitchenAid/SodaStream appliance. I mentioned it and had 3 of my 300+ friends respond with how much they love their SodaStream and the new appliance! So, maybe only 1-2% of my friends even have one so the market to expand is certainly still there, we just have to find a way to tap into it.
If the machine is nice enough and does the job then there could very easily be a market for a $150 machine. My SodaStream machine costs $179, retail which I think could be worth it to many buyers. But, I think it is imperative to have several price points and variations to appeal across varying customers.
I bought at $4.99 it seems like a year and a half ago. I never thought I would see those prices again! I sold in the high 6's and then missed the ride to the mid 7's. I almost bought in around $7.20 but my money was tied up elsewhere. Got a little luck and bought in closer to $6. Well, I thought I was relatively lucky until today! :(
So, I am looking for the best entry point to average down and then I will probably not have long to wait before it jumps up again.
That's one of my favoriate aspects of my SodaStream, mixing flavors I want. I will mix up the diet packet I have and try it out.
I currently have about 20 SodaStream flavors, a few of which I mix and match (such as CountryTime Lemonade with either Raspberry or Strawberry) so I love adding more flavors to the mix!
I suspect my CO2 will be running out soon so I will be checking out Bed Bath and Beyond pretty soon... I picked up a lot of discounted flavors from Wal-Mart a week or so ago.