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Vanda Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

drh21530 24 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 16, 2014 6:42 PM Member since: Apr 4, 2014
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  • drh21530 drh21530 Aug 16, 2014 6:42 PM Flag

    This stock and the antibiotic biotech / pharma space is easy $$. There are only a new smaller companies out there in the space. CEMP and TTPS. Durata has made it's run already. By CEMP on low volume under $10 and hold until early Q1-2015 (night be late Q4-2014). Will likely run to $15 easy. Watch for the volume to begin to 2x or 3x, then it's time to start loading up for sure. For anyone who really follows this space can you think of any other companies who are worth doing some digging on?
    What about BCRX and Solithromycin? Big potential upside but risky what FDA will do...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    "potential to be a $90+ stock"

    by mrsetion Aug 16, 2014 5:48 PM
    drh21530 drh21530 Aug 16, 2014 6:27 PM Flag

    $90.00 by 2015. That seems a bit unreal considering the July tarif restrictions the US has now in place. The growth would need to come from mainly Japan, China and EU. If the international economy has any downturn " solar energy" as a whole will be one of the first business models to fall.

  • drh21530 by drh21530 Aug 15, 2014 1:20 PM Flag

    With the international markets down, issues in EU and Japan and China.. how can this equity be up and the volume be so much above the 30 day moving average. Trading volume is too big. Day trading, shorts covering, MM pushing the buy up in preparation of driving it down, news coming out. This isn't normal and makes me nervous as a trader and owner.
    Please don't say the answer is earning or forecasts. Those are long gone news. Lots of companies coming out with great earning or new product launches don't go up 30% in 72 hours. MM games

  • Reply to

    Question?

    by drh21530 Aug 14, 2014 1:09 PM
    drh21530 drh21530 Aug 14, 2014 1:17 PM Flag

    and it's going to do all that in 2 days time when it's a forecast for a year? So you don't think that this is over-bought and it's perfectly normal for an equity to release earning and fly up 30%. It think that there were lots of stock interest in this stock prior to the earning call. Probably some big investors given what happen to other Solar companies. Those are the ones who lost money, and now pushing it up higher and shorting, then hoping to get back what they lost when then shorted it at $20-$22. Not saying that in a year's time this price isn't a fair market value, but too much too quick is usually a bad indicator of behind the scenes #$%$ going on.

  • drh21530 by drh21530 Aug 14, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    Those of you who are continuing to buy this stock after it's up 30% in 48 hours on "better than expected" earnings. Do you not understand what's going on here... Average daily volume is 3M shares. It's traded almost 28M in 1.5 days. The earning were very good. Future guidance is good, but tempered with the comments about China and Japan. So, who do you think is moving all these shares? Are they all buys, sells, shorts, covering, etc... Take a look at what has happen in the past week to stocks that move up this quickly in a manner that defines any conventional trading logic. It's not a good sign, it's not normal and it's a strong predictor of bad things to come in the future. Someone mentioned over bought... yeah think so? At some point there will be no more buyers, shorts or anyone. Then it will stagger around for about a day, then the MM and hedge will decide it's time to make more money from the opposite strategy they've employed since yesterday. But, all we can do is wait and watch. This is out of the control of the retail investor and now in the hands of those who play the big money games on Wall Street...

  • That's a real problem and something needs to be done to stop it. But it isn't sexy and isn't a Yahoo message board hot topic.

  • Reply to

    WHO meeting today in Toronto

    by sctmpid24 Aug 11, 2014 9:15 AM
    drh21530 drh21530 Aug 11, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    How many doses do they have..... made available for what purpose and what data to support if it works? The company has said nothing about even if they could produce it and then would the manufacturing facilities need to be approved by the FDA, CDC or WHO. It's not like 1,000,000s of people are dying. 1,000 dead since the spring. Do you know how many children die each day in Africa from Malaria? Answer... over 1,500 kids under the age of 10 each day.

  • Reply to

    WHO meeting today in Toronto

    by sctmpid24 Aug 11, 2014 9:15 AM
    drh21530 drh21530 Aug 11, 2014 9:22 AM Flag

    Really? Why would you give a drug that you have no idea if it works or not. The benefit / risk ratio hasn't been determined as of yet. You could kill more people than save. Would you take a drug that no one knows if it will even help you, no data, only negative data when it comes to dosing and AE's.

  • drh21530 drh21530 Aug 11, 2014 9:18 AM Flag

    Reference please. FDA, company, journal, investigator. Something that I can read and review. Thanks.

  • drh21530 drh21530 Aug 10, 2014 9:29 PM Flag

    Well - what do I know. Just some idiot as you point out who is simply playing the stock market game like everyone else on this board. Tomorrow it's another day at work. Trying to figure out solutions to all that's wrong with the health of the world. I wish this company and all others good luck in finding some answers and being able to bring a quality well balance (B/R) product to society. It isn't easy. We've been making big steps forward on HIV, HEP and others. Virus research is tricky. But you seem to already know that and what more can I say.
    Regarding FDA and it's role only in the US. That is indeed a fact. Though a company in Canada with a pipeline of products that will bring them true revenue (not simply giving away a product to Africa or wherever at cost or less (been there and done that) doesn't want to rock the apple cart too hard with the Agency. The FDA and it's rather old and sometimes seemingly draconian policies is still the guide by which other countries and company look to for guidance. The CDC and WHO are unlikely to move on a policy that would undermine that for which the FDA has built it's foundation of human studies on. It's tricky with virus work and exposure ethics.
    I would ask if in the future you'd be a bit some tame and respectful of those of us who pride ourselves on evidence, debate, scholarly merit and not on "a joke". I'm not sure I've been called a joke in 25+ years of practice and research. But my colleagues will find it amusing tomorrow.
    Good luck and best wishes.

  • Do any of you honestly know how this who drug / vaccine development process works. I've been reading the posts on this site and thinking that you've all drank the cool-aid. I'd suggest you do some reading up on your TKMR product and it's history. They isn't any data (none) that shows this compound is successful in humans exposed to the Ebola virus that would be strong enough evidence to all even the most remote chances of use at this point in time. FDA pulled the plug on the most recent Phase I study (look up what those studies are intended to show since I don't have the time to educate you), that's after the company pulled the plug on the previous study itself 3 years before. The WHO, CDC and FDA are not going to allow an untested drug that has a history of SAE's in a dose ranging trial with healthy subjects be manufactured and sent to Africa for use. Think for just one second about the negative implications of if that drug were to cause massive side-effects including death, let alone not work. This is science not some pump, pump and pump or dump, dump and dump issue at hand. The stock's price went up 45% based on uneducated investors or possible more educators market makers looking to back a very quick buck. Now, beginning tomorrow when the reality that this outbreak is nearly under control, the exposed population is isolated, countries are working together to put in place safeguards and a big player like GSK and J&J have stepped up to the plate, the likes of a TKMR or other tiny, insignificant biotech company will disappear from the limelight and real science and real medicine will step in. If FDA allows anything to occur with the TKM product under development it's going to be the restart of a Phase I trial (dose, safety) to see if this has a future role. Phase I...
    Someone wrote FDA will move to skip Phase I, II, III and IV trials and move to open use for all those living in Africa. Another wrote the stock price will be $30 or $100 tomorrow. Really.

  • Reply to

    Shorts that appear after Fartstein article

    by lba40 Jun 16, 2014 7:38 PM
    drh21530 drh21530 Jun 17, 2014 8:59 AM Flag

    Confused.. AF has nothing to do with why institution shorts are in the game. They don't listen to AF, they probably think he causes more volatility than good. You say smart institutional houses are betting against him yet the short interest is pretty high. We should find out today what the numbers are for the last 2 weeks ending 6/15. And as for those crazy people who thinking holding a short interest for 6-12 months is nut.
    That the long of the shorts. Not looking for a quick buck but looking at the mid-term future of a company. suggest reading up on some of the biggest short hedge funds guys out there and see how long and how dedicated they are betting on the downside of a company. Green Mountain or Ethanol Fuels companies
    and yes the biotech industry. We're (since I love to play in the biotech space) are far from out of the fire
    with pricing issues and Obama Administration or CMS. Biotech will once again become the nasty, bad,
    evil and money hungry target of someone else beside Waxman. Then the whole sector could see a 30%
    downturn.

  • Reply to

    49,750 shares in short seller $14.28 16:00 hs

    by reven2427 Jun 13, 2014 4:08 PM
    drh21530 drh21530 Jun 13, 2014 4:19 PM Flag

    How do you know what those sales were? The volume in the last 5 minutes was more like 100k shares moving but who know if those were buy order, cover orders, short orders.. unless you have access to that it would be nice to know.. Something is brewing for it to turn up $.30 in the last bit of trading. I'm seriously thinking a secondary announcement next Monday AM or something like that, could be positive news too. Either the longs or the shorts will be happy campers by next Friday.

  • drh21530 by drh21530 Jun 13, 2014 9:39 AM Flag

    So if you follow this stock you've seen over the past 7 days a nice run up and big profits for all. We've also seen a lot of press about the "SELL" side of Vanda and the negative forecast. Just another comment out this AM. Let's do some math and please I'm very open to comments and amendments.
    If they're short cash and running out quickly (which their own recent financial report indicates that) a secondary offering is going to be required or some large backer / loan for them to continue past the end of this year. Looking back at other biotech companies of this size and their secondary offering in 2013 and 2014 you'll see no one does this for less than $100M (Xoma $138M, Epizyme $200M, etc.). Lets be conservative and say $100M. Let's price it at $12.00 so it will attract lots of buyers. That works out to 8.33M shares added to the already 33.87M shares outstanding or 22.27M shares in float. So if you simply look at dilution of total shares outstanding it's nearly a 25% dilution of share price (though it isn't that straight a calculation and probably would be less) but if you look at it from a floated shares dilution (that some analysts do) then its closer to a 37% dilution. Either way, even with only $100M in cash raised (which would be more like $90M) after fees and commissions paid the firm who hosted the sale.. it looks like these lower price targets are beginning to make sense. Now, a $6 PT is a bit harsh to say the least, but something around $12 - 25%
    or closer to $9.00 seems more reasonable.
    Like to get other's opinions and thoughts on this.. not hype, bashers or pumpers.. real constructive info.

  • drh21530 drh21530 Jun 11, 2014 3:47 PM Flag

    What matters is not only the market cap (look back at some market caps of tech stocks that we absolutely off the charts high and had no right being there).. is the companies ability to delivery on it's sales targets and have enough money to keep the lights on. They have a product and it could very well sell in the coming years, the problem is short term cash flow. They're going to somehow need to generate cash to get them through (that's what all the indicators and press is saying), it's not that the product won't sell or patients won't request it, the problem is short term (18 months) cash reserves. Secondary offering is what they need and a fairly big one. Price the stock at $11-$12 and sell shares. Investors will buy and then they'll be good.
    The fact that the entire biotech sector is down today (big and small names) by a lot yet this company is hanging in there should tell you something isn't right in Kansas. If it were down a lot I'd feel better about it to be honest...

  • Reply to

    price target at $6

    by ggrter Jun 11, 2014 10:48 AM
    drh21530 drh21530 Jun 11, 2014 11:50 AM Flag

    Not some stupid, small group necessarily, they're pretty sharp but not a biotech expert. Which is weird to get involved at all. Funny enough know someone in the Albany area who uses them. It's interesting that they come out with a sell PT of $6.00. I agree they're not Goldman or Piper, but Goldman doesn't have an analyst out with a PT on Vanda anyway. So why does this group come out with such an aggressive sell and PT. They're not underwriting anything for Vanda nor would they be allowed to provide a sell recommendation if they knew a secondary offering were coming. They might have clients invested in Vanda or who knows. The next 30 days will be interesting. Something has to give.. either it's way up or way down.

  • Reply to

    price target at sell $6.00

    by ggrter Jun 10, 2014 3:51 PM
    drh21530 drh21530 Jun 10, 2014 5:00 PM Flag

    Please provide the references to these upgrades. I've been trying to find them on all the typical websites but there isn't any expect today's and dating back months ago. If there are upgrades I'd like to read them and see who they're from. Thank you.

  • To those who follow this stock... and still own shares (I sold mine today at $14.50.. had to take the profits).. why is this stock still moving higher? The data and sales numbers aren't great and it looks like from their balance sheet their short on liquidity. Yet for 5 days running this stock is one of the best performing of all the biotech stock. Up now nearly 50% in 5 days. That's simply unheard of right now with all eyes on valuations
    of the biotech sector.
    What is driving this stock higher...
    Well thought out and evidence based responses please.. :-)

  • Reply to

    i guess stocks just dont go down anymore

    by wavesearcher99 Jun 10, 2014 10:30 AM
    drh21530 drh21530 Jun 10, 2014 10:46 AM Flag

    Did you see the news.. just out on the wire. Vanda down graded to a sell. Price target $6.00. That must be why it's be climbing over the recent 3-4 trading days is the shorts pushing it higher and higher. BEAR RAID is probably next. Secondary offering to raise cash or issues with drug sales or possible SAE's, who knows.

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