XNPT: A Top Small-Cap Idea With '829's Overlooked Promise
• Summary: XNPT shares have remained under pressure and are down
substantially (along with much of the sector) from their highs earlier this year,
despite multiple positive developments, in our view – promising full phase I
PK/PD data for ‘829, regulatory clarity on a potential path forward for the drug in
MS, progression of the drug into phase II, and script growth for Horizant. We
believe XNPT has been off of investors’ radars with the next major datapoint, the
phase II psoriasis data, still about a year away; we believe this creates a highly
attractive entry point, with the company’s ~$160MM enterprise value
dramatically overlooking ‘829’s reward/risk profile and opportunity in MS and
shares likely to appreciate as the phase II data approach nearer. XNPT remains a
top small cap idea.
Valuation Range: $10.00 to $11.00
In our view, XNPT is undervalued based on '829's promise in MS and psoriasis.
In sum, Sensor Platforms represented the springboard allowing QuickLogic’s CSSPs to be used as sensor hubs; however, more recent initiatives have positioned QuickLogic to be more agnostic to algorithms, sensors and processors.
While it is uncertain whether Audience, Inc. will continue to “license out” Sensor Platforms’ algorithms, this development should NOT derail QuickLogic’s ArcticLink III S1 sensor hub product roadmap, and this development should NOT negatively impact sales prospects for ArcticLink III S1 sales during 2H FY14.
We believe that ADNC's acquisition of privately-held Sensor Platforms, Inc will not disrupt QUIK's momentum in the smartphone/always-on wearables sensor hub market.
QUIK's current and future sensor hub platforms are intentionally designed to be algorithm, sensor and processor agnostic. QUIK has demonstrated good platform performance on several key applications processor and sensor platforms using QUIK's in-house developed algorithms/software working in conjunction with OEM and third-party ISVs including private software/algorithm companies such as SPI, Hillcrest Labs, Movea,
Maintain our Buy rating
Sidoti cuts estimates:
Although We Remain Bullish On MXWL’s Growth Prospects In The China Bus Market, Sluggish
Bus Volumes Prompt Us To Trim Our 2014 Forecast; Maintain BUY Rating, $21 Price Target
• In our view, sluggish bus production data through May from key ultracap customer Yutong (foreign) warrants a reduced outlook for 2014.
Our updated 2Q:14 sales forecast of $42.9 million compares with the FactSet consensus of $47.2 million. We recommend investors keep a close eye on Yutong’s June production numbers (likely to be released in early July) as validation of our 2Q:14 earnings revision.
Roth reiterates Buy today:
We believe that the introduction of the Amazon Fire Phone with multiple sensors such as gyros,
accelerometers, compass, pressure sensor, dynamic perspective sensor, proximity sensor, ambient light sensor, advanced audio and microphone sensors highlight the need for low-power, always-on sensor hubs which can intelligently process the sensor signals and present the optimum signal to the power-hungry apps processor which will only be woken up on demand for context-sensitive applications. QUIK also recently introduced its ultra-low power, always-on S1 Wearable Sensor Hub platform for wearable computing and display applications targeting a 40 to 50 million unit market in 2014 rising to 90 to 100 million units in 2015, according to NPD Display Research. We believe that the catalog CSSP Wearable sensor hub platform, available for immediate production ramp, provides an out-of-box complete solution with software and algorithms to enable fast time-to-market for health, fitness, and wearable computing/display applications. QUIK has developed algorithms such as "tap-to-wake" and "Rotate-Wrist-To-Wake" as part of the Catalog CSSP platform for quick time-to-market which allow the wearable device to respond to user movements and gestures without waking up the power-hungry applications processor. We reiterate our Buy rating and believe that QUIK has growing design win momentum for its programmable connectivity and sensor hub chips targeted at the 1 billion plus smartphone and always-on wearable computing/display market with potential significant revenue ramp during 2015.
The annual reconstitution is underway. The annual reconstitution period started on Friday afternoon, which is the date that Russell ranks all eligible securities by their market caps (the last trading day of May) for inclusion in its various indexes. Russell will release its preliminary list of additions and deletions to the Russell 3000 and its subcomponents, the Russell 1000 and the Russell 2000, on June 13th, with the rebalancing occurring on June 27th and the final membership lists posted on June 30th.
Based on market data on Friday's close, we are updating our projections such that we estimate a company will need a minimum market cap of $167.6 million for inclusion in the Russell 3000. We note that this is an
estimate and we will not know the actual cut off until Russell releases its preliminary list of additions and deletions on June 13.
What you post makes no sense. You claim the stock is "overvalued" and then you cover your short for a few hundred dollar gain (excluding the losses on your total position) at levels above where you shorted earlier. You should be saying that the stock is "overbought", which is something different completely.
This stock is so volatile, I doubt anyone has traded more options in it this year than me (including today), buying the dips and selling the rallies. I think it continues to trade higher, so my trades have had a bullish bias and I've also been in and out of the stock a number of times. If you're playing the vol, as your trades suggest, there are much better ways to do it than what you post.
More "terrible analysts" at Sidoti:
Increase Street-High 2014 Forecast Following Above-Consensus 1Q:14 Results; Remain
Bullish On MXWL’s Exposure To Growing Ultracapacitor Market; Maintain BUY, $21 Target
Piper must be "terrible analysts" too...LOL!
Our price target remains based on 3x FY15 revenue, but is moving to $23 (from $21) due to our
increased estimates. We reiterate our Overweight rating.
Jimmy's not happy today!
MXWL: Strong Q1 Beat; Multiple Catalysts
Ahead; Upgrading to Buy
We are upgrading MXWL to Buy from Neutral on a strong Q1 beat, healthy Q2
outlook, multiple potential wins in ultracaps ahead, and positive commentary
on the China bus market. While positive developments in China bus have
driven the stock to date, we believe investors have not yet fully baked in other
key catalysts in 2014. As a result, we upgrade to Buy and raise our PT to $20.
Sorry Jimmy, you lose again.
I was on the call and I'm long the stock. They're firing on all cylinders. I'm really looking forward to the JV announcement with GLW, they don't do anything that doesn't involve big revenues. No one has factored anything in for that. China bus market expanding. Auto OEMs signing on. Wind pitch gaining steam. Rail & trucks gaining momentum. Etc, etc.
Not looking good for Jimmy. Keep trying to talk it down. Analysts will be pounding the table and raising estimates again tomorrow.