I live in Florida and I'm going to predict snow. I am going to predict snow every day and even if the temperature is 90 degrees outside, I'm going to predict snow.
Yes, one day it will snow and for all those months and years it did not snow it doesn't matter because it snowed that one day.
Today 1:59 PM ET (MarketWatch)Print
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A "strong majority" on the Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee believes that the central bank's unprecedented asset purchase programs have been effective, said Janet Yellen, President Barack Obama's nominee to be the first chairwoman of the central bank. In response to a written question from Sen. David Vitter, a Louisiana Republican, Yellen said the benefits of asset purchases continue to outweigh the costs. The letters were released on Tuesday. Yellen repeated the Fed's statement that asset purchases are "not on a preset course" and the decision on whether to reduce the pace of the purchases will remain contingent on the economic outlook and the Fed's assessment of the costs and benefits. In a separate letter to Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat from Massachusetts, Yellen said that Fed policy would likely remain very easy for a long time after the unemployment rate falls below the central bank's 6.5% interest rate hike threshold.
Last Friday Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said there was still an "awful lot of slack" in the U.S. labor market, but cautioned that economic data did not do a good job of providing an accurate measure.
Between early 2003 to lat 2009 the under insured has doubled with the bulk being families with 40 to 50 k in annual income. They make too much for medicaid , do not have employer plans and can't afford the ones offered. The insurance companies filled the void with junk policies with low caps or merely discount medical programs that did not protect against financial calamity.
For example HealthMarkets owned by Goldman and Blackstone that sold a cancer survivor a $450 policy with $100k chemotherapy coverage but the survivor didn't realize that a 1k cap / day on expenses for drugs. The survivor died leaving 450k medical bills to his spouse. Or policies sold by AARP that requires a patient to pay all medical costs upfront then reimburses the patent. This patient was told to bring a check for 44k to the medical center before they were to get chemotherapy treatment. The patient did not have the money and forgoes the treatment and dies.
Many of the policies sold in the individual market are plagued by consumer abuses put people of risk of medical bankruptcy and are termed swiss cheese insurance. Many of these plans are targeted towards our youth with premiums under $50 / mo which do not cover hospital costs assuming the individual can get past all exclusions for preexisting conditions.
Plans sold now must have minimum coverages and the "junk plans" being cancelled and are replaced with one's with meaningful coverage that clearly discloses coverage terms. It's unfortunate that the "junk plans" are being treated as "national treasures" when better coverage can be often obtained at more reasonable prices and the rest of us don't have to carry you when you can't pay as a result of a catastrophic event.
AGNC has been adjusting and hedging for higher interest rates. Although they made the right call in Q2 there would be no taper, they did not anticipate the "taper talks" affect on interest rates. The book got hit and hit hard. Now in Q3 they may of overreacted in hedging and re-balance but none the less the portfolio is what it is. The duration risk has diminished with the acquisition of the 15 yr AGNC can afford to take more risk. More risk can come in the form of reduced hedging costs or maybe even increased leverage. The spread should hold.
I any case I would expect AGNC to maintain the 80 cent divy having 52 cents UTI and look more towards TI generation than BV protection. JMO.
Keep in mind that AGNC still has 52 cents in UTI. Most of the losses in Q3 were from the selling of 30 / 3.5s and moving to the 15 year to decrease duration. They were heavily hedged and on the wrong side including short TBAs. At least they are out of the TBAs now like sister co. MTGE, this is a positive going forward.
Things can change quick for AGNC if the work on hedges and re-balancing of the portfolio is complete. Management focus then becomes on making money where taxable income situation could change fast. Say, for example, hedging costs are reduced, de-leveraging subsides or increases on continued gridlock and interest rates remain steady for the upcoming quarter, maybe for the next year. AGNC can make money. They proved this in the past.
The elephant in the room is the taper. Do you believe the taper can will be kicked indefinitely down the road or maybe priced in? Then AGNC could be a wonderful buy. If you believe the taper has not been priced in the 10 year and will happen soon, then maybe a short. But if you play the stock, you will have to come down on one side or another and have some risk tolerance.
If you are covered by a plan that existed March 23, 2010, your plan is "grandfathered." You may not get some rights and protections that other plans offer. Grandfathered plans are those that were in existence on March 23, 2010 and have stayed basically the same. But they can enroll people after that date and still maintain their grandfathered status. In other words, even if you joined a grandfathered plan after March 23, 2010, the plan may still be grandfathered. The status depends on when the plan was created, not when you joined it.
How to find out if your plan is grandfathered
What grandfathered plans do and don't have to cover
Here's a quick look at the consumer protections that do and don't apply to grandfathered plans:
All health plans must:
End lifetime limits on coverage
End arbitrary cancellations of health coverage
Cover adult children up to age 26
Provide a Summary of Benefits and Coverage (SBC), a short, easy-to-understand summary of what a plan covers and costs
Hold insurance companies accountable to spend your premiums on health care, not administrative costs and bonuses
Grandfathered plans DON'T have to:
Cover preventive care for free
Guarantee your right to appeal
Protect your choice of doctors and access to emergency care
Be held accountable through Rate Review for excessive premium increases
In addition to the above, grandfathered individual health insurance plans (the kind you buy yourself, not the kind you get from an employer) don't have to:
End yearly limits on coverage
Cover you if you have a pre-existing health condition healthcare.gov
Welcome to the dark side.
Now, take a look at CYS who has done a good job of managing book and spread.
Even some of the preffys are yielding 9.5% like NYMTP.
Klumps, the more u talk the more I am convinced that you know nothing about how to read a 10-Q. Anyone on this board that has been here for awhile can see right through you. You do not have a understanding of the dynamics of the company and how to read financial statements and related schedules.
You do talk pretty even though you say nothing.
I see the glee in your post but was wondering, is that all you got out of the report?
Any comments on any changes in the investment portfolio, hedges or TBA shorts? What about the conference call, did GK give you some ideas on what may take place in the Q4? Comments on Taxable Income and UTI? What about the duration of the portfolio, any comments here? Leverage, spread, CPR?
Please enlighten the board where AGNC will be in the next six months.
From the 10-Q:
"As of September 30, 2013, we financed our portfolio with approximately $14.9 billion of borrowings under repurchase agreements. Our leverage ratio as of September 30, 2013, was 6.93 to 1. As of September 30, 2013, our liquidity totaled $1.3 billion, consisting of $0.5 billion of cash and cash equivalents plus $0.8 billion of unpledged Agency Securities "(including Securities received as collateral).""
A little research goes along way #$%$, try again.
Listen #$%$ you said "billions in cash".
Even with adding securities received as collateral, 1.3 billion does not equal billions in cash. Quit misleading investors and talk about something you know something about. Maybe j_erking of_f.
Billions in cash, ur a joke. Don't you even read a 10-Q? They had less than a 500 million on the balance sheet as of the end of the third quarter on a 30 billion dollar portfolio!
YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT YOUR TALKING ABOUT!
Beyond that, drop losses were three times what ARR generated in net interest income. A few more quarters like this and we will see a Chapter 11!
GET YOUR HEAD OUT OF THE SAND AND DO SOME RESEARCH.
estimated taxable earnings go from $91.4 million in Q2 to $3.8 million in Q3? Ka boom
Book dropped from 5.43 to 5.26 and they generated core of .11 cents. down 15 cents afterhours.
Looks like you need to do a little homework randynmd. Go to the ARR website and look at management and do a little research on management's involvement in Adult Friendfinder and bimini capital management.
Get your head out of the sand DA.
daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates are at all time lows for 2013. Down from .32 on 10/15/13 to .02 on 10/25/13. Same for the 3 mo, 6mo and 1 yr. Check the Resource Center on the Dept of Treasury Website: Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates.
long ago I played ARR because of the yield and divvy monthly payment and then after taking a loss I did some research on management. They are inept and will be the first gse backed mreit to to belly up if the sector faults. They are the benchmark for sector failure.
look towards WMC, AGNC, MTGE as the leaders if you want to play the sector. ARR is a lager.
a budget is composed of two things, revenues and expenses. To balance you can increase revenues and/or decrease expenses or a combination of both. This is how a balanced budget is created..... yet wait... there is something else and that is growth and inflation.
lawmakers can do all, decrease spending, increase revenues, create demand (inflation) and grow the economy. But that's a balanced approached... no winners no losers just compromise the dirty word in politics.
You win an election, now it's time to get on Fox news and hammer in the talking points while the economy is flushed. But hey, I'm on fox and my district lines have be drawn so that all my constituents that paid for my election see my big grin.
Klumps at least give credit to the author: Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/28/2013 15:59 -0400
Klumps at least give credit to the author: Lynn Westmoreland, 3rd district of Georgia, July 08, 2013