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Bristol-Myers Squibb Company Message Board

drjackcar 47 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 17, 2014 7:21 PM Member since: Feb 8, 2006
  • Reply to

    searching for a bottom

    by toast22342000 Oct 8, 2014 8:45 AM
    drjackcar drjackcar Oct 8, 2014 9:42 AM Flag

    The shorts are forward looking too. They understand the news cycle may improve after what are sure to be hideous numbers for Oct come out.

  • Reply to

    Sterne Agee note on Sept.-Oct. GGR

    by drjackcar Oct 7, 2014 8:02 AM
    drjackcar drjackcar Oct 7, 2014 8:04 AM Flag

    Negative near-term issues close to priced-in. We believe October’s start, the continuation of China President’s Xi’s anti-corruption campaign (and certain Mainland economic uncertainties), and newly implemented smoking restrictions may mute buying activity in the near term. However, based on investor conversations, we believe most near-term issues disrupting GGR have bled into Macau stock performance, while long-term positives (new supply, infrastructure, etc), as well as short-term ones (potential for increased capital returns to shareholders and gaming expansion legislation in Japan) are

  • September mass solid; Golden Week slow YoY
    Our Call

    According to sources, September VIP gross gaming revenue (“GGR”) ended -25.7% YoY, while mass GGR was +15.2%. We believe September mass GGR results are favorable given checks citing it running close flat near mid-month. On the other hand, October is off to a slow start. One press report and other channel checks cite early October daily GGR at slightly above MOP1b. October 1 – 6 2013 daily GGR was MOP1.3b. We forecast October GGR to finish at -18% to -23% YoY.

    October. As stated previously, we believe Hong Kong’s Occupy Central protests negatively impacted quality of play early in October. Outside of slightly stricter visa controls, many Mainlanders delayed or canceled trips to Hong Kong in wake of last week’s protests. Mainlanders often travel to Macau during their visit or holiday to Hong Kong.

    As of yesterday, tighter smoking restrictions are in place in Macau casinos (please see our October 1 publication, “October 6 smoking restrictions likely tighter than most anticipated”).

    October comp. We note a difficult October comparison, with a Peninsula/Island hold rate of ~3.3% versus the trailing-twenty-four month average of ~3.1%. Last year, October’s VIP rolling was +21.1% YoY versus the full year result at +13.3%, and mass revenue was +45.4%, its best result in 2014, and versus the full year result at +34.8%.

  • drjackcar by drjackcar Oct 7, 2014 6:23 AM Flag

    You know things aren't great when a YoY decline of almost 12% is considered good news.

    "Our Call

    According to our checks, September’s GGR run-rate indicates a -16% year-over-year (“YoY”) monthly result, or MOP24.5b (USD$3.2b), including slot assumptions. Checks indicate mass GGR was trending close to flat through September 14, but rebounded somewhat last week. Our September year-over-year (“YoY”) GGR forecast remains from -15% to -19%. We anticipate September mass GGR will end at or slightly better than +7% YoY while VIP will finish near –21%."

    Bain's guesstimate was low on the mass side and high on VIP which I believe was thought to be +15% and -25% respectively. Now we wait to see whether the announcement of a lightening up on the corruption crackdown really will have a positive effect on VIP.

    All the concessionaires should be reporting in the next month or so. The market will be listening closely for the forward looking views of the management teams with the understanding their comments were largely too optimistic following Q2.

  • Reply to

    market's reaction to the news flow

    by drjackcar Oct 1, 2014 8:41 AM
    drjackcar drjackcar Oct 2, 2014 11:33 AM Flag

    Or $24.50.

  • Admittedly there are still some challenges and uncertainty for the gaming stocks. Unrest in HK is as yet unresolved, there will continue to be margin pressure from worker demands for higher wages, table allocations for the 2015-16 openings have not been declared, the impact of the smoking ban is not clear, nor is what there will be in the way of a lasting effect from the anti-corruption campaign. Now we can add generalized fear over ebola following the case in the US.
    So the street remains cautious as evidenced by this morning's PM indication for lower prices.

    It will be interesting to see what the analyst community does with the news of the end of the anti-corruption campaign. I suspect they too will remain cautious for all the reasons I've mentioned. For me, I keep reminding myself Macau's gaming revenue is still expected to hit $80B within 3-4 years, the new casinos will get their table allocations, the government is likely to compromise on current foreign worker restrictions, the smoking ban will not have much of an effect, and VIP play will gradually rebound though some will still seek to remain out of the spotlight of Macau. Consequently, I feel like MPEL is an attractive investment @ $26.

  • drjackcar drjackcar Sep 30, 2014 5:02 PM Flag

    I have to say I am a little surprised, given the ramifications of the announcement for ALL gaming segments, that the stock wasn't up 10%. Maybe the "on going" nature of the campaign has put a lid on the response. All 'n all this is obviously the best news to hit the sector in a very long time.

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