The group COULD get a bump if the OPEC meeting results in a reduction of production, though it doesn't matter a bit to how the biz will do.
there is more goods news coming.
now it's closer to $40. Get ye long some shares.
which is detailed at the end of the PR. That means big price target increases with all the brokers promoting the shares.
I find I have to agree with that and the Nov. numbers bears that out. I'm also not liking how MPEL lost share according to Bain's note out this morning while MGM's is growing.
Macau - November GGR Trends
According to our channel checks, November Macau table-only gross gaming revenue (“GGR”) is MOP7.0b (USD$0.9b) through November 9. The November GGR run-rate indicates a -19% year-over-year (“YoY”) monthly result, or MOP25.1b (USD$3.2b), including slot assumptions. Our November GGR growth forecast remains -17% to -21%.
Average daily MOP for the first 9 days of November is consistent with post-Golden Week October average daily MOP results. The 61st Macau Grand Prix (November 13 – November 16) should work to slightly boost average daily mass table revenue, though we anticipate some softening in the weeks following the event. November GGR growth was +21% last year, and VIP hold was 2.9%, the second lowest of the year. (December marks the 2013 VIP hold low-point at 2.7%.).
There is no change to near-term GGR headwinds – China’s anticorruption campaign, a choppy Mainland macro backdrop and President Xi’s upcoming December visit to Macau - we consider these issues transparent to investors at this point and reflected in current Macau stock prices.
We continue to forecast mostly negative high- to mid-single-digit growth declines for early next year (improving from our -22% 4Q14 GGR growth forecast), followed by solid mid-teens GGR growth in the back-half of 2015. Our CY15 GGR growth forecast is +5% followed by over 20% growth in CY16.
November 1 – 9 market share results. According to our checks, November 1 – November 9 table-only market share results are: SJM at 20.5% (versus October table-only share of 24.0%), Galaxy at 21.0% (versus 21.9%), LVS at 21.8% (versus 23.4%), MPEL at 15.1% (versus 14.1%), WYNN at 8.1% (versus 8.7%), and MGM at 13.5% (versus 8.0%).
SUNE has had a very nice run this year so it is vulnerable to profit taking since Q4 guidance was a little below consensus. The long term prospects are great, it is currently under valued, but the low price of energy has the mechanized trading programs holding down the valuation.
3Q14 demonstrated continued margin momentum (adjusted-for-hold) and a market lead in win per mass tables. While earnings commentary was cautious of the near-term environment, this matched previous competitor commentary. We believe catalysts are more specific and near-term relative to peers, though its valuation discount versus peers is significant.
Significant upcoming catalysts 1) Opening of City of Dreams (“COD”) Manila in December 2014, with a grand opening prior to Chinese New Year in 2015 (February). COD Manila will mark the only new, significant casino to open in Asia this year/early next. The opening also marks MPEL’s first step to becoming a more broad-based regional player in Asia versus a Macau pure-play. The Philippines' gaming market growth will likely outpace any sizable gaming market this year.
2) Dividend increases and additional share repurchases. While MPEL’s dividend should go higher organically next year (30% payout, opening of Macau Studio City and other growth), we also believe that should the legislative process in Japan conclude with no expansion, its payout ratio is likely to go higher as well. We note MPEL repurchased $100m of its stock in 3Q14 – all within its one-month window in September.
3) Opening of Macau Studio City in mid-2015. MPEL’s Macau Studio City opening mid-2015 marks Macau’s next new casino resort opening. Macau Studio City will be directly adjacent to the Lotus immigration check-point connecting Henqin Island, where tens of billions of dollars are being invested for hotel resorts, theme parks and other amenities (think Orlando, FL).
4) New luxury retail enhancement at City of Dreams in 2016 – $150m to $175m project. The front entrance of COD continues to be horded as a new luxury retail experience is constructed. The opening marks not only the end of construction disruption but also new, unique draw/retention tool for premium mass patrons.
That was a brutally honest answer unlike the as yet unfounded optimism voiced by the other management teams. Quite refreshing not to hear the typical sugar coating "everything is going to be great" stuff coming from Steve W.
Not so surprising that a construction project of this magnitude would see delays. But the market is rightly focused on what is and will be happening in Macau. The biggest concern obviously being the massive cap ex investment will not be rewarded. If Shelley's theory of "if you build it they will come" holds true I think you can make the case the stock is priced for a decent increase over the next 12-36 months.
But the underlying biz is doing well and the future is very bright. This is a buy.
Beijing is still getting millions in tax money, they feel the political agenda behind the opulent spending crackdown is more important than a few extra million.