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ONYX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

drjwater 115 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 15, 2014 10:56 AM Member since: Nov 5, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Cramer must not own

    by fstout57 Feb 26, 2014 10:52 AM
    drjwater drjwater Feb 26, 2014 11:52 AM Flag

    Want even more info. The #$%$ at the street are looking at 2012 sales vs 2013 1st quarter sales and not the growth and potential. this along with what is booked takes everything out. The 4th quarter sales will be $15 million vs $6 million in 2012 and the EPS will have gone from $-0.30 to $-0.08 HUGE gains which are just starting to roll in. What type of fools do these people take us for? The SEC should investigate these guys and toss them in jail to put fear into the greedy fat cats taking advantage of simpletons.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • drjwater drjwater Feb 26, 2014 11:46 AM Flag

    I be one of the few people that understand the value of this? Otherwise the #PLUG share price would be over $7 right now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    just mentioned on cnbc

    by relentlessiam Feb 26, 2014 11:39 AM
    drjwater drjwater Feb 26, 2014 11:45 AM Flag

    That #PLUG power just outsourced Walmart forklift fleet at the new warehouse. Or something like that.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • drjwater drjwater Feb 26, 2014 11:44 AM Flag

    Do retail investors get this yet? #PLUG power is a H2 service provider. Who are you going to go to for Hydrogen fuel systems? Who? #PLUG that's who.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • drjwater drjwater Feb 26, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    This is the true value of #PLUG. Outsourcing fork lift operations at all US major distribution warehouses.

    FYI...#PLUG will be converting 1 warehouse per quarter starting in June 2014 on top of the 6 new distribution sites. They will start ramping up to 2 warehouse per quarter in June 2015. All of which will have a 5 year service contract.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Cramer must not own

    by fstout57 Feb 26, 2014 10:52 AM
    drjwater drjwater Feb 26, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    Anyone who follows crammer is a plain old simpleton that doesn't know a thing about value. Crammer was pumping the heck out of this a couple of years ago (1999-2002) then burnt all his investors while making millions off them. He is a bitter, bitter man..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • drjwater drjwater Feb 26, 2014 9:55 AM Flag

    PLUG is sells the TRU in May 2014. Fed-ex Memphis in April 2014 and freight movers in August. BUT wait...Look at Toyota Fuel cell web site and you will see PLUG power. They are expanding rapidly.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • drjwater drjwater Feb 26, 2014 9:51 AM Flag

    Why? No better reason for growth and potential than PLUG power.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • drjwater drjwater Feb 25, 2014 10:50 PM Flag

    The stacks are the batteries. You have the H2 fuel cell, which is the main part, then you have the stacks (BLDP). Now you have many other components that make the unit and that is not including the engineering, design, environmental, legal, safety and all the components putting together the Hydrogen delivery system or the continued operation and maintenance along with continued add on sales and service contracts. He(l)(l) I say give away the dam(n) gen drive and just sign the service contract. that is were the money is at along with very long term contracts with high profit margin money coming in for years to come. That's what we are talking about here with this company. Not just the gen drive but the whole service package. Value added man, value added. That's were the money is at.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • drjwater drjwater Feb 25, 2014 10:40 PM Flag

    I wonder how many weak hands we have now?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • drjwater drjwater Feb 25, 2014 10:40 PM Flag

    4. Now PLUG has had a bad rap 15-20 years ago, so what? Today the new market place they are focused on between lift trucks, back up generators, fork trucks, TRU's and range extenders have a market cap of over $7.5 billion dollars in potential sales over the next 7-10 years. AND you know what? PLUG has 85%+ of that market place.

    5. PLUG's sales are taking off. Look at what they were just 18 months ago. Less than $3 million in a quarter, now last quarter they sold $32 million and have over $70 million in sales booked for 2014. So in two years sales have jumped from $12 million to projected 2014 yearly sales of over $97 million.

    6. PLUG is now expanding on success by adding to their product offerings. Turn key operation. Customers have already purchased this value added service, customers like Wal-Mart, Kroger, Mercedes, BMW, ACE hardware, Sysco just to name a few. And you know what? These customers are increasing their purchases.

    7. The US federal gov't is giving Tax Credits to people who put in PLUG's units. PLUG's team works with their customers to get those tax credits, but that $3,000/unit doesn't cover the cost of conversion or the units and YET big name customers are buying PLUG's products and services, paying a premium for PLUG's product line. Remember PLUG has 85% + of the market share. So customers are paying for this and expanding.

    8. The US gov't is now through federal funding giving money to PLUG to expand with units on TRU's for companies like Sysco and Fed-ex. Expanded market place and sales.

    9. PLUG just got an investor to buy up 10 million shares for $30 million, that's $3/share. The same price PLUG was at last year when they had 1/10th sales and cash on hand.

    10. PLUG's has only 100 million shares some 40 million is tied with investors, insiders and LT invesotors like me. So we trade 1/3 volume everyday.

    11. The Original investors lost 1 billion and are playing with you on these movements just to load up on weak hands

    Sentiment: Strong Buy


    Agencies and Partners Involved

    Defense Logistics Agency currently oversees 8 pilot projects, in various stages of maturity with more potential projects in the planning stages. For more information on any of these projects, please check out the Project Updates tab. The program is currently demonstrating and planning the demonstration of fuel cell technology in:
    ◾Forklift/bus pilot projects (99 forklifts, 1 bus)
    ◾Solid hydrogen storage
    ◾Extended range vehicles
    ◾Yard tractors
    ◾Stock Selectors

    These extensive pilots cannot be completed without the help of several key Department of Defense agencies and personnel.
    The Department of Energy’s Hydrogen Program Office and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory provided support that included partial funding and expertise in data collection and fire protection issues.

    The major outside partners also have large stake in these projects, and they include:
    ◾Air Products
    ◾Concurrent Technologies Corporation (CTC)
    ◾East Penn (Deka Batteries)
    ◾Nuvera Fuel Cells
    ◾Plug Power

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    WSJ Article Hydrogen Cars to Challenge Electric

    by drjwater Feb 25, 2014 10:11 AM
    drjwater drjwater Feb 25, 2014 10:11 AM Flag

    Europe has been pushing hydrogen-powered cars, too. Last year, Germany implemented an ambitious plan to spread fueling stations throughout the country. European regulations are based on average CO2 emissions from vehicles, so a zero-emission car helps improve a company's average. Some Scandinavian countries also heavily tax new gasoline or diesel-fueled vehicles and give tax breaks to buyers of electric or hydrogen powered vehicles.

    There are fewer than 15 public hydrogen fueling stations in the U.S. today.

    "The thing about fuel cell vehicles is they have the potential to offer many of the things that consumers expect today from gasoline vehicles. For our long-term goals they could play a greater role," said John Swanton , an air-pollution specialist with the California Air Resources Board.

    Fuel cells use a chemical reaction between hydrogen and oxygen to create electricity and water. In a car, the fuel cell would replace batteries as a source of power for electric motors, allow for faster refueling time than battery-powered electric cars such as Tesla Motors Inc. TSLA +6.47% 's Model S. Hyundai says its hydrogen-powered Tucson sport-utility vehicle can refill in eight minutes. Tesla says a 240 volt link takes an hour for each 29 miles of driving.

    The range is about the same. Hyundai says its Tucson can go up to 300 miles on a full tank while Tesla rates its fully charged 85 kwh vehicle at up to 300 miles at a constant 55 miles an hour

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • By Mike Ramsey , The Wall Street Journal

    Under pressure from regulators, several auto makers are preparing to roll out emissions-free cars powered by hydrogen fuel cells instead of gasoline engines.

    Three car makers have disclosed plans to lease a small number of new vehicles in California and in a few countries in Europe by the end of next year. South Korea's Hyundai Motor Co. is expected to be first out of the gate this spring, followed next year by Japanese auto makers Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co.

    California wants at least 15% of new vehicles sold in the state to produce zero emissions by 2025, and its regulations require auto makers to sell electric vehicles or fuel cell vehicles to meet the requirement. Its mandate means that fuel cell cars will get double the emission credits compared to electric vehicles.

    The tests are an effort to determine how pricey hydrogen vehicles will compete with far less expensive gasoline- or diesel-powered cars. The biggest problem so far is their cost. Next is figuring out how to get the cars to fueling stations, where they are pumped with compressed hydrogen.

    Leasing a midsize hydrogen-powered car can cost as much as a luxury sedan. Hyundai's Tucson hydrogen-fueled vehicle will be leased for $499 a month and only to people who live near fueling stations. The fuel is included in the lease. Honda has leased about 20 of its older model FCX Clarity sedans for about $600 a month since 2008.

    The price and paucity of fueling sites have relegated hydrogen-powered cars to small demonstration fleets, mostly in California where taxpayers have been willing to subsidize refueling stations and offer other incentives. The state has a plan to build a network of 100 refueling stations across the state over the next decade

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • drjwater drjwater Feb 25, 2014 10:03 AM Flag

    Everyday brings more and more technology and ideas to the H2 fuel cell market place. It is so nice be sitting in the drivers seat with 90% of the market place.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • drjwater drjwater Feb 25, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    Andy Marsh said in his last interview that the first units were being rolled out in the 2nd quarter of 2014. Wal-mart is putting in major re-fueling stations as is Sysco. The major Sysco hub in Texas is putting the first units in. Sysco & PLUG have been getting $650,000/month for the past 18 months to make this happen. Now the products are rolling off the production line and sales will start in May 2014.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • drjwater drjwater Feb 25, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    I love your thought, however the contract is worth close to $80 million due to the nature and full service value. This is a whole turn key operation and is worth just a tad more than a normal conversion. Now that being said we need to look at this. The $80 million deal will start in the 2nd quarter of 2014 and finish in 2015. So it will not effect 2013 at all. Now the recurring service contract that goes with this deal is worth around $18-$20 million per year. $3million/site which includes everything even H2 margins. Now when you have a tech rep on site the sales still continues and little add on's drive the value up to $20 million. So a big score for the one time sales and continue revenue for many years to come.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • drjwater drjwater Feb 25, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    I don't think that merger is in the plans for GE and PLUG. GE would just plain old buy them out.

    FYI, PLUG has $830 million lose that is carrying. (NOT debt, losses that can be applied to any gains. Now there is a ton of tax laws on how purchaser of this debt can use this. However GE is in the O camp big time so they will be able to get around most of those laws. Even if GE played fair the debt write off on tax gains from the purchaser is worth about $280 million over 3 years. OR $2.50/share easy. Figure in 10 year average sales and margins worth about $9.2 billion/year sales and $1 billion profit margin and you have a company worth about $11.25/share. Today at no current extra good faith value or potential. Straight up $11.25/share. Now Andy will reject that low ball offer in hopes of something in the $17-$19 range. If GE really wants PLUG they would also buy BLDP, sorry that's how GE works. They would buy both within 1 week or suggest a merger between PLUG and BLDP, then buy both for around $3.8 billion or $14.40/share for PLUG.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    PLUG strategies

    by wtginbus100 Feb 23, 2014 10:21 AM
    drjwater drjwater Feb 25, 2014 9:42 AM Flag

    How do we know that vs mutual fund manager buys or GE. I mean that GE just came out and said the plan expansion into green energy through acquisition.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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