Except that this utopian forecast COMPLETELY dismisses ANY chance of competition. We're already starting to see the emergence of competition. The cable content providers are in the process of changing their business model as well as Amazon the other new streamers that WILL emerge if/when streaming is as lucrative as the Utopian Bulls keep dreaming it will be. If there are truly Billions to be made here, others WILL get in on the action, and split the profit pie into smaller pieces.
Because they are privy to figures, numbers, and insight that others aren't. Icahn sold; he's not stupid. Insiders are liquidating at a significant rate. What trends are they seeing? They're not selling now, to wait and buy back at $160.00.
They're off-loading to the Muppets, while the off-loading is good. Irrational Exuberance is truly their friend.
Icahn sold everything; Insiders are selling; Reed Hastings said this stock was over-priced when it was half of what it is today. Everybody with any kind of intimate knowledge of the inner workings is getting out.
But some analyst says it's going to $160.00. They MUST know SOMETHING that the Insiders don't know. Buy, Sheeple; SOMEBODY needs to be left holding the bag. That's the key to a Ponzi scheme.
I've been on both sides of this stock, but at this price, I can't be on the Up side. It's just plain NUTS! This will crash.
You falsely assume that I'm strictly a short. I've made money on this with it's movements up the ladder and down; it's pretty easy when playing the patterns. This is a momo play. Personally, I'm very fond of momo's, because the action is fantastic. My post was strictly pointing out the fact that this stock is STRICTLY a momo and has NO basis in fundamentals or reality.
IF Netflix was the ONLY streaming game in town, the valuation might be somewhat acceptable; however, with the inevitable rise of competition, (Amazon just landed a huge win over Netflix, with more to come) NFLX will go the way of Atari. A great innovator and paver of a smooth road for the competition.
I have to go now, because my mother just walked into my Walmart with another armload of Sailors. Oh #$%$... and a couple of Marines. Dammit!
Today... NOTHING changed. The company made no more money, today, than it did yesterday. The fundamentals of Netflix are NO better than yesterday. The revenues have not improved. The debt has NOT gone down (in fact, every day adds more debt.) The forward-looking P/E drastically and unrealistically increased. The intrinsic value is no greater than last week.
What DID change, today? Somebody issued a ridiculous OPINION.
Atari was THE home game system to have and they DOMINATED the arcades. Then... Hello Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft.