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drq82 49 posts  |  Last Activity: May 23, 2016 12:27 PM Member since: Jul 6, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Great Support $6.80 Area

    by citamar May 17, 2016 12:02 PM
    drq82 drq82 May 23, 2016 12:27 PM Flag

    Fortunately I didn't take my advise on the stop and held the stock as it tested the 200 DMA. Now I hope to see a test of the 50 DMA, i.e., 7.15. IMO, breaking the 50 DMA would be bullish, even better would be to close above the 15 DMA.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Great Support $6.80 Area

    by citamar May 17, 2016 12:02 PM
    drq82 drq82 May 18, 2016 3:32 PM Flag

    I agree that 6.80 is a good entry point. ... but you will sell using that for a stop. A better stop might be just above the 200 DMA say 6.56. On the upside, there seems to be resistance at the 50 DMA which is 7.16. So for trading purposes, I am buying below 6.90 and selling above 7.10.

  • drq82 drq82 May 6, 2016 1:44 PM Flag

    It was my opinion that CLNE turned the corner a year ago. That was a little early from an investment perspective but this quarter confirmed the growth I expected but as someone else said it is going to be a bit of a value trap for several years...until it clears its debt which is probably at least 2018.

  • Reply to

    Another Contract This Morning

    by citamar May 2, 2016 10:02 AM
    drq82 drq82 May 6, 2016 1:18 PM Flag

    ENOC is clearly speculative. It has a dominant position in its markets. I believe these markets are high growth which places ENOC in the Star Quadrant of BCG's growth - share matrix.

    A small like ENOC in the star quadrant has numerous risks; most significantly that it will have insufficient resources to grow with its market. In these markets, however, I believe ENOC's software and expertise create a barrier to entry which is sufficient that better capitalized companies will consider purchasing ENOC preferable to a greenfield entry into these markets.

    With small companies in high growth markets, it is also crucial to watch cash flow which, IMO, is much more important than earnings...especially with software companies where most of the investment is in intangibles like software and skilled staff. ENOC operations over the last year generated more cash than they consumed. This suggests ENOC is an ongoing business but does not preclude the possibility of ENOC going bankrupt, wiping out shareholder equity.

    Regulatory risk to ENOC's Demand Response market was a bigger risk than any of the others. With this risk behind it, IMO, ENOC is worth more today than it was a year ago. The elimination of this risk should reduce ENOC's legal fees and give management more time to focus on the core business. I expect this to become obvious when they report 3rd Qtr revenues and earnings in November.

    Anyway, this post has gotten long enough. Thanks for the warning. Just don't forget past earnings impact book value; market cap is determined by expectations for future earnings.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Another Contract This Morning

    by citamar May 2, 2016 10:02 AM
    drq82 drq82 May 5, 2016 2:03 PM Flag

    I did manage to pick up a couple 100 shares at 6.96....wanted a lot more but the order was only partially filled. Oh well....the bounce off of 6.90 suggests we won't see that price again. ... I stand by my earlier conclusion that it will be difficult to purchase any more of this stock below 7

  • Reply to

    Another Contract This Morning

    by citamar May 2, 2016 10:02 AM
    drq82 drq82 May 5, 2016 12:48 PM Flag

    My premise is 3rd Qtr earnings last year (2015) were negatively impacted by the ruling which was overturned in January. If so, this year's 3rd quarter will be a break out and the stock will return to the range it was trading before 2015 3rd Qtr earnings, i.e., 8.50 to 12. The market will anticipate this but discount for the risk and so the trend toward 10. Recent trading had defined a bottom somewhere above the 200 DMA, let's say that bottom was 6.85. I was using 6.94 as my accumulate point. Earnings were good enough that I will definited be accumulating at 7 and perhaps a little higher depending on trading this next week.

  • Reply to

    Another Contract This Morning

    by citamar May 2, 2016 10:02 AM
    drq82 drq82 May 5, 2016 11:59 AM Flag

    That is 3 this week ... but I suspect this is just a cluster around the earnings announcement.

    And the big news for today is the earnings. They beat expectations quite nicely and the market has responded well. My optimism will be contained, however, until it breaks the 7.88 high set in early April. Since it didn't break that today, I expect the stock will trade sideways until November with a slight upward bias. Opportunities to buy below 7/share or sell above 10/share are likely to be few and far between during this period. Obviously, all of this will need to be reassessed when the next earnings announcement occurs.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Nice Bounch Back

    by citamar Apr 26, 2016 11:22 AM
    drq82 drq82 Apr 26, 2016 10:37 PM Flag

    I bought 1000 at 6.84, yesterday. 100 shares at a time. It took patience and I didn't try to buy at the bottom

  • Reply to

    Nice Bounch Back

    by citamar Apr 26, 2016 11:22 AM
    drq82 drq82 Apr 26, 2016 11:47 AM Flag

    I liked the way it tested and bounced off the 200 DMA....I actually bought some for my trading account. With earnings coming up, it is a little risky but I will probably clear a few bucks before then.

  • Reply to

    Acting Well

    by citamar Apr 21, 2016 11:49 AM
    drq82 drq82 Apr 22, 2016 2:51 PM Flag

    Yes....there is significant resistance at the 200 DMA which provides a floor. Today the 50 DMA crossed the 300 DMA in a bullish manner. It will be interesting to see if we get above 7.88 before earnings are announced on May 5.

  • Reply to

    GEVO $5.00 target at HC wainwright

    by bagelmasters Apr 21, 2016 9:12 AM
    drq82 drq82 Apr 21, 2016 11:38 AM Flag

    The chart suggests (to me) we will see 8 before we see 5.

  • drq82 drq82 Apr 20, 2016 2:56 PM Flag

    Teach, you have told us repeatedly the executives are overpaid. Executive compensation has nothing to do with this swap of debt for equity. So get over yourself and move on with your life. Railing on with the same message is boring; I don't know how you spend time with yourself without falling asleep.

  • Reply to

    Why up 7+% Today?

    by jpmarketer Apr 19, 2016 1:46 PM
    drq82 drq82 Apr 20, 2016 12:12 PM Flag

    I agree...the Chief Counsel leaving after the successful completion of their Supreme Court appeal should be no surprise. Think about from his point of view...for the last several years he has been guiding a team of lawyers through the appellate process. Exciting business for a lawyer...for the next several years the most exciting thing on his plate at ENOC will be contract negotiations...boring business for most lawyers. At the same time, his resume now includes the successful Supreme Court appeal. I suspect this makes him a valuable commodity in the market.

  • drq82 drq82 Apr 20, 2016 11:58 AM Flag

    Essentially the company issued 6 million shares for a little over 4/share. This is significantly above the current market price although it is a bit below the 200 DMA. Since there are 12 million shares short, it seems these shares are already in the stock price. Another way to think about it is 6 million shares is 3 to 4 trading days in volume. So I concur with your conclusion that this is a good deal for existing stock holders.

    Longer term, however, there is still 186 Million of these notes outstanding. At this price the company will need to issue approximately 45 million shares to cover that entirely. This possibility will put a cap on the stock price for some time to come.

    Bottom line...I think CLNE has turned the corner is looking up but the next few years will be a hard slog for the share holders as it seeks to clear its debt burden. Today could be a great buying opportunity as the market absorbs the meaning of this transaction.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Why up 7+% Today?

    by jpmarketer Apr 19, 2016 1:46 PM
    drq82 drq82 Apr 19, 2016 4:19 PM Flag

    The only news I saw was announcing when earnings would be released ... and so conclude this was more of a "bounce off the 200 DMA" than anything else. It also suggests the market is expecting positive earnings news in a month.

  • Reply to

    Trading in April 2016

    by drq82 Apr 12, 2016 3:19 PM
    drq82 drq82 Apr 19, 2016 4:16 PM Flag

    ENOC bounced off the 200 DMA quite nicely. Apparently the market thinks the risk is worth it. I suspect this means the market is hoping for better than expected earnings to lead to further rallying in this stock.

  • Reply to

    up up and away: FCEL will climb higher

    by jeb.4090 Apr 12, 2016 12:42 PM
    drq82 drq82 Apr 12, 2016 3:38 PM Flag

    I share a bit of your enthusiasm for FCEL and am cautiously optimistic but would remind everyone this is a speculative investment...and the key to managing speculative risk is diversification. Last year, I established a speculative portfolio in alternative energy and recently added FCEL to that portfolio. The other holdings are CLNE, SPWR, TSLA, ENOC, and SCTY, Any individual stock in this portfolio, including FCEL, may go bankrupt before being successful but I expect the portfolio to be much better than double in 5 years.

    The interesting thing I have learned over the past year is the volatility of speculative stocks. There is a lot of money to be made from buying (and selling) these regularly. And right now, FCEL is in a buy pattern. This too will change. ... can we spot it? Only time will tell.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • This was an interesting stock to trade but recently it has been quite boring. Will it open up again? If so when?

    As I read the charts, aka, tea leaves, the 10 DMA, approximately 7.39, defines the local top. The local bottom, however is less obvious. Will it be the 200 DMA, approximately 6.78; or the 50 DMA, approximately 6.36? The 100 DMA, approximately 5.22, seems unlikely to be tested as it is rising rapidly.

    The difference between the falling 10 DMA and the flat 200 DMA is about 0.60 today, i.e. about 9%. This doesn't seem adequate to justify the risk. The difference between the falling 20 DMA and the rising 50 DMA, however, is over 1.00, i.e., above 15%, which seems worthy of the risk. So my conclusion is we will test the 50 DMA before the next earnings report and probably during April. For short term traders, this would seem like a good point to buy. For longer term investors, this seems like a time to accumulate.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    many preservation neighborhoods

    by markpl950 Apr 2, 2016 10:22 AM
    drq82 drq82 Apr 5, 2016 3:41 PM Flag

    In Phoenix, some (perhaps all) preservation neighborhoods permit solar panels that are not visible from the street. As a result, most homes are able to install solar panels adequate to meet the needs of the home.

  • drq82 drq82 Mar 30, 2016 4:19 PM Flag

    Don't bet on gasoline returning to $5/gallon in the next 5 years. ... but don't expect cheap oil to stop the expansion of alternative energy and the inevitable transition to electric vehicles. At most this cheap oil will slow the adoption by a few years.

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