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Gentex Corp. Message Board

drshowme 63 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 17, 2015 7:58 PM Member since: Apr 9, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Pep vs KO

    by hggyt5 Jul 13, 2015 6:26 PM
    drshowme drshowme Aug 17, 2015 7:58 PM Flag

    "Next Recession coming" ... well, that is a pretty safe bet as it is surely ALWAYS true ... the question is WHEN is it coming and what should one do about it ... personally, I am not smart enough to know exactly when it will come and how long it will last - and neither is anyone else ... my rule is to have a good portfolio and not worry about it ... in the 2008 market drop (mid-March 2008 to mid-March 2010) I sold 7.3% of my portfolio (some due to a cash buyout of one company, and a need for money for home improvement) at the end of the period my portfolio was up over 22% - in spite of the sales ... buy good stocks and watch them - NOT the market

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Mexico to Ohio

    by halhav Aug 12, 2015 10:18 AM
    drshowme drshowme Aug 17, 2015 1:25 AM Flag

    Apparently you got lost following Ford's movements ... this is the ORLY board ... peddle your nonsense elsewhers

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Overcharging customers

    by billy_berew Jul 12, 2015 11:16 PM
    drshowme drshowme Aug 17, 2015 1:20 AM Flag

    Let's see ... on the one hand, my last full analysis of ORLY (5 May) projected it to hit at least $400 within 5 years ... since then it is up nearly 16% (well better than my projection line) ... in the nearly 5 years I have owned it, it has grown over 38% per year

    On the other hand, billy_bs SAYS he doesn't have the sense to notice being over charged by 50% on a purchase ... and it happens repeatedly ... but he ALSO doesn't have the sense to take his business elsewhere

    Hmmm ,.. to sell or not to sell ... think I'll not sell

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    TOO BIG AND MUST FALL - AM I RIGHT????

    by dimsum3214 Jul 31, 2015 1:47 PM
    drshowme drshowme Aug 17, 2015 12:48 AM Flag

    "am I right?" - in a word, NO, you are not right

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    SEE YA below $70

    by ahhhaa63 Aug 12, 2015 5:21 PM
    drshowme drshowme Aug 17, 2015 12:38 AM Flag

    Hey if that is what you believe, PLEASE put all your money in a short position ... and let us know how that works out for you

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    The 99%

    by financekid299 Aug 16, 2015 9:51 PM
    drshowme drshowme Aug 17, 2015 12:27 AM Flag

    100% of the people on this board expressing an opinion on either issue should take their political cr..p to a political board ... this one is supposed to be dedicated to discussions of Altria

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Pep vs KO

    by hggyt5 Jul 13, 2015 6:26 PM
    drshowme drshowme Aug 17, 2015 12:23 AM Flag

    Good luck with your investments ... if you make all your decisions by just looking at the P/E ratios, you are certainly going to need LUCK

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    under god

    by brodiejust5 Aug 13, 2015 8:43 AM
    drshowme drshowme Aug 17, 2015 12:10 AM Flag

    Does that message have any content in English??

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    No one is going to buy a Harley

    by fstout57 Jul 8, 2015 2:56 PM
    drshowme drshowme Aug 17, 2015 12:03 AM Flag

    First, "when they are losing so much money in the stock market" ... well, sorry about your investment problems ... personally, my portfolio is doing just fine

    Second, Harley does not particularly 'cater' to the low end market ... at a guess, most folks buying a Harley (as opposed to another vehicle of some sort) are not watching their money for daily market fluctuations - no more than those buying Jaguar, BMW, Lexus, etc.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Bought 500 shares @ 230

    by markandrew1979 Jun 23, 2015 10:45 AM
    drshowme drshowme Aug 13, 2015 3:04 PM Flag

    How's that working out for you? ORLY hasn't been lower than 238-&-change (where it was on Jul 17) and is about $255 as I type this.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Bought 500 shares @ 230

    by markandrew1979 Jun 23, 2015 10:45 AM
    drshowme drshowme Jul 30, 2015 7:44 PM Flag

    Good for you; but if you are only looking at 250, you must be a short term trader. I am not. I bought at a bit under $50.00 nearly 5 years ago. At market close 24 July (last time I did a complete update on portfolio), my APR was 38.3%. - not my best result from that time frame, but close. My last full analysis of ORLY was 5 May (price then $219.52). My projection then was for it to hit $399 within 5 years. Interestingly, Value Line (sheet dated 1 May) had a 3-5 year projection for ORLY of $250! I really like VL for its presentation of data, not so much its projections. Once again, their evaluation of true growth stock was extremely conservative.

    taherkq ... "price is now v expensive. ... we see 230 220 first before we can move higher" ... yes and no ... YES, ORLY is expensive by comparison with its historical P/E ... NO, barring some unpredictable bad news, we will not see those levels - at least not for very long ... if you are day trading, that may concern you ... OTOH, I made ONE transaction (i.e., one fee), the investment is making over 38% per year (granted the price has dropped over 3.00 since 24 July), and I don't have to watch it daily; plus I don't need to do better than 38% to be happy

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Lawyers

    by c_lafong Jul 17, 2015 5:36 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jul 26, 2015 8:25 PM Flag

    Well, I doubt you geniuses will believe any of this ... I am not a short ... I am not about to tell you exactly how many shares I hold, but the number of shares is in four figures ... since some of you are clearly mathematically challenged that means more than 999 and less than 10,000

    My last full analysis of BRLI (31 March, at that time trading at $35.34, before the recent artificial price increase) called it to hit in the neighborhood of $87.00 within 5 years ... I first purchased it in Oct 2011 and my investment had nearly doubled in that time

    OTOH, we have OPK - a company that has NEVER had a profitable year ... and I see no reason to believe that management will maintain BRLI's record ... I don't invest in companies that do not know how to make a profit ... sooner or later (generally sooner) the lemmings who bank on promise will abandon ship ... if you invest 'on the come' I suggest a trip to Las Vegas, there are plenty of casinos there that will be thrilled to take your money ... IF this transaction completes, I will sell the resulting shares and reinvest the money in a profitable company

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    A little perspective

    by drshowme Jul 22, 2015 8:11 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jul 25, 2015 8:25 PM Flag

    Thanks ... of course I usually caution folks that "Free advice is often worth every sent one pays for it!"

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    A little perspective

    by drshowme Jul 22, 2015 8:11 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jul 25, 2015 7:53 PM Flag

    precisionvision ... Happy to help ... I noticed you got a thumbs-down on this post ... guess one of the trolls took exception

    I have been in and out of Motley Fool a couple times ... a lot more when it was all free ... on those occasions when I found a stock that appeared interesting, I subjected it to the BI analysis - along with some of its competitors ... that last step (comparing with other similar stocks) has been a major part of my success ... at an estimate, at least a third of the stocks in my current portfolio started as one of those competitors of the stock that initially interested me ... as they say, YMMV

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Lawyers

    by c_lafong Jul 17, 2015 5:36 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jul 24, 2015 9:46 PM Flag

    The merits of the case will be decided in a court. Personally I voted my shares today AGAINST. As for "pennies for the plaintiffs" that may or may not be the case in general. However, a couple weeks ago I got a nice check for nearly $500.00 in such a case brought against BOA in 2013. It took two years for the case to be settled, but it was money I was not really expecting and an amount I would not classify as "pennies." YMMV

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Lawyers

    by c_lafong Jul 17, 2015 5:36 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jul 24, 2015 9:42 PM Flag

    I am guess that was a sad attempt at humor. In case it was not, the lawyers in these suits get whatever compensation they receive from the settlement - NOT directly from the stockholders.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    A little perspective

    by drshowme Jul 22, 2015 8:11 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jul 24, 2015 9:34 PM Flag

    precisionvision ... apparently my attempts to reply to you inquiry about methodology show as a reply to one of my previous messages. Expand the messages above for the info. Just wanted to be sure you knew I wasn't ignoring your request.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    A little perspective

    by drshowme Jul 22, 2015 8:11 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jul 23, 2015 10:02 PM Flag

    Part 7 and last – Well, so far so good with the pieces! I will just add that BI has publications (read booklets that it sells) supporting its various forms. It also has a mutual fund analysis methodology. However, I cannot speak to that as I have never investigated it. When I invested in funds, I had a process that worked very well for me; but l learned over 20 years ago that I can do much better on my own investing in individual stocks than (at least) nearly all the funds. I hope this has been helpful and not long or too boring. Good luck!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    A little perspective

    by drshowme Jul 22, 2015 8:11 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jul 23, 2015 9:55 PM Flag

    Part 6 – The BI ‘message’ includes a set of ‘investing principles’ that I believe can probably be found on the website. However, the main ones are: invest regularly; re-invest earnings, dividends, and profits; invest in growth; diversify (industry, size, country – the latter being a longer discussion). I add two more that I am not sure are in the BI material: “Thou shall not churn” (my version of buy-and-hold); compare like stocks (if you are looking at multiple options, be sure you are comparing stocks in the same industry – preferably competitors, and preferably somewhat comparable in size).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    A little perspective

    by drshowme Jul 22, 2015 8:11 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jul 23, 2015 9:48 PM Flag

    Part 5 – My history with the methodology dates to the about 1990 and started in an investment club. After less than a year in that mode, I started using it on my own. It gives one a structured way to look at key factors in analyzing a stock’s fundamentals (e.g., P/E, return on invested capital, pretax profit, payout/yield, etc.). The one doing the analysis still must apply her/his judgment. I have done very well using it. My spouse and children claim I have a ‘knack’ for it. However, I occasionally teach the BI methodology (to family, friends, not in association with BI, and not for fee) and what I tell the seminars is that anyone with a reasonable understanding of investing can use this profitably.

    Sentiment: Buy

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