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Gentex Corp. Message Board

drshowme 31 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 30, 2015 7:44 PM Member since: Apr 9, 1998
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  • Perhaps a bit of history is warranted. Even with today's drop, AAPL's close was less than 6% below its all time high close ... AND ... it was about $3.00 higher than it was two weeks ago. Those who like to play the small swings in stocks are welcome to their game - surely an appropriate name for it. As an INVESTOR - as opposed to a trader - I only concern myself with such swings if they represent a problem with the company. Today's quarterly-report-motivated drop does NOT qualify as a problem.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Switched my OPK shares to BRLI

    by farryman008 Jun 4, 2015 2:30 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jun 5, 2015 1:04 AM Flag

    "no way the lawyers stop this deal" ... you may well be correct in that assessment ... However, there is a great deal of difference between stopping a deal and changing the ultimate payout to BRLI owners (and hence the final value to OPK) ... as a BRLI owner, I will vote against this as I have zero confidence that the management of a company that has NEVER managed to turn a profit will do so in the future ... I am a long-term investor (as opposed to a day-trading speculator) and am not willing to 'bet on the come'

  • Reply to

    A little perspective

    by drshowme Jul 22, 2015 8:11 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jul 22, 2015 9:14 PM Flag

    Well, it is only a loss if you were smart enough to sell at the up 12 points, buy at the down 6 points, and it goes up again ... you aren't ... I think it was clear from my post that I invest - not trade ... my average purchase price per share for AAPL is $1.38 with an APR nearly 31%, so at today's close of $125.22, I guess I would call that "a win" ... as for "brilliant" it may be that or it may be luck ... how many of your stocks do as well?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    A little perspective

    by drshowme Jul 22, 2015 8:11 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jul 22, 2015 10:29 PM Flag

    Sorry ... apparently I misinterpreted your comment

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    A little perspective

    by drshowme Jul 22, 2015 8:11 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jul 23, 2015 9:22 PM Flag

    Part 2 - National Association of Investors Corporation (NAIC) is an organization that has been around since the early 1950s (I think), but rebranded/renamed itself as Better Investing (BI) in about 2005 – taking the name of their long-standing monthly publication “Better Investing” magazine. Their methodology has been around nearly as long as NAIC/BI. Naturally it has undergone some tweaks along the way. The magazine is worth a read in its own right and should be available at most public libraries worthy of the name.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    A little perspective

    by drshowme Jul 22, 2015 8:11 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jul 23, 2015 9:14 PM Flag

    precisionvision … Part 1 - This will be a rather lengthy post – or rather a series of posts. I replied in length only to find that the reply was NOT posted. I guess I may have violated some message board rule – though I can neither imagine what that would have been nor can I find a list of rules!

    So, I will try again – in pieces – see which replies make it – and try to keep at it until the total is complete!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    A little perspective

    by drshowme Jul 22, 2015 8:11 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jul 23, 2015 9:27 PM Flag

    Part 3 – BI has software that supports the methodology. It looks good to me, but I have not used it myself. I use an Excel workbook that I created long before the software existed (it in fact started as a Multiplan spreadsheet). You need not have software support and either way the software does not make the decisions for you – only simplifies the calculations. The methodology is fundamental analysis – i.e., it DOES concern itself with the business of the company being analyzed – as opposed to technical analysis.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    52.58 a share its bought for and its 39.7?

    by stocksarerigged Jun 4, 2015 1:10 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jun 5, 2015 1:18 AM Flag

    What it is saying is that IF the deal had closed at yesterday's closing price ($19.12) for OPK, the value of a share of BRLI would be $52.58 (i.e., 2.75 x 19.12) ... I will be voting my shares against this. However, although I project BRLI in the neighborhood of $86 in five years, if it gets close to that $52 range soon, I'll likely sell on the theory I can do better elsewhere and on the certainty that I can NOT trust the management of a company that has yet to turn a profit to know how to handle BRLI

  • Reply to

    One option - sell BRLI

    by c_lafong Jun 4, 2015 9:28 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jun 8, 2015 10:52 PM Flag

    I am always serious (or at least nearly so and definitely in this case) about financial matters ... however, I will admit to ignorance regarding short term (puts & calls) transactions ... my portfolio (for over 20 years) has about doubled the historic market growth of 10-11% annually using a proven long-term investment analysis approach ... could I do better with a shorter horizon? ... perhaps, but what I am doing works very well and does not require me to be watching my investments on an hourly basis

  • Reply to

    A little perspective

    by drshowme Jul 22, 2015 8:11 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jul 23, 2015 8:52 PM Flag

    precisionvision ... looking at this thread to respond to your later post I noticed that I left out a number. My previous response should have said "I am in 12 stocks that I initially purchased over 18 years ago and another EIGHT I have been in for almost 5 years."

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    A little perspective

    by drshowme Jul 22, 2015 8:11 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jul 23, 2015 9:55 PM Flag

    Part 6 – The BI ‘message’ includes a set of ‘investing principles’ that I believe can probably be found on the website. However, the main ones are: invest regularly; re-invest earnings, dividends, and profits; invest in growth; diversify (industry, size, country – the latter being a longer discussion). I add two more that I am not sure are in the BI material: “Thou shall not churn” (my version of buy-and-hold); compare like stocks (if you are looking at multiple options, be sure you are comparing stocks in the same industry – preferably competitors, and preferably somewhat comparable in size).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    A little perspective

    by drshowme Jul 22, 2015 8:11 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jul 23, 2015 9:48 PM Flag

    Part 5 – My history with the methodology dates to the about 1990 and started in an investment club. After less than a year in that mode, I started using it on my own. It gives one a structured way to look at key factors in analyzing a stock’s fundamentals (e.g., P/E, return on invested capital, pretax profit, payout/yield, etc.). The one doing the analysis still must apply her/his judgment. I have done very well using it. My spouse and children claim I have a ‘knack’ for it. However, I occasionally teach the BI methodology (to family, friends, not in association with BI, and not for fee) and what I tell the seminars is that anyone with a reasonable understanding of investing can use this profitably.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    A little perspective

    by drshowme Jul 22, 2015 8:11 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jul 23, 2015 10:02 PM Flag

    Part 7 and last – Well, so far so good with the pieces! I will just add that BI has publications (read booklets that it sells) supporting its various forms. It also has a mutual fund analysis methodology. However, I cannot speak to that as I have never investigated it. When I invested in funds, I had a process that worked very well for me; but l learned over 20 years ago that I can do much better on my own investing in individual stocks than (at least) nearly all the funds. I hope this has been helpful and not long or too boring. Good luck!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    A little perspective

    by drshowme Jul 22, 2015 8:11 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jul 24, 2015 9:34 PM Flag

    precisionvision ... apparently my attempts to reply to you inquiry about methodology show as a reply to one of my previous messages. Expand the messages above for the info. Just wanted to be sure you knew I wasn't ignoring your request.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    A little perspective

    by drshowme Jul 22, 2015 8:11 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jul 22, 2015 10:37 PM Flag

    Thanks for the kudos. I am in 12 stocks that I initially purchased over 18 years ago and another I have been in for almost 5 years. Like balooga2, I am a buy-and-hold investor ... a difference for me is that I get no outside advice - using instead a methodology that has been around for over 50 years.

    I have certainly made a few mistakes (purchases that have not turned out), but my portfolio approximately doubles the market long term average - so I am happy enough with that.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    A little perspective

    by drshowme Jul 22, 2015 8:11 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jul 23, 2015 9:36 PM Flag

    Part 4 – Okay, so I now see that the sequence online does not reflect the order in which the posts were submitted; so I am glad I numbered them! BI has a website: betterinvesting.org. NAIC/BI has been mainly oriented towards investment clubs, but certainly has individual members. As you might expect, some things on the website are available to all and others are restricted to members. BI offers classes in their methodology, the software, and other related processes – both through the website and through regional chapters – the contacts for which are in the back of each issue of the magazine.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • drshowme drshowme Jun 5, 2015 1:09 AM Flag

    You call them cockroaches ... I hope they succeed ... as a long term investor, I have ZERO interest in owning shares of a company (OPK) whose management has NEVER managed to turn a profit

  • Reply to

    One option - sell BRLI

    by c_lafong Jun 4, 2015 9:28 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jun 5, 2015 12:55 AM Flag

    Well, I agree with part of your statement. If you are a day-trader or other short term market player, you will make money or not. As a long term investor (as opposed to player), I have no interest in owning ANY stock that has never earned a profit. OPK's stock price growth is impressive, but it has grown by folks 'betting on the come.' I have no room in my portfolio for more speculation. I will be watching this carefully; but at present will be voting my shares AGAINST it. My last (mid-March, price $35.24) full analysis of BRLI projects a 5-year out high of about $86. I see no reason to believe the management of a company that has yet to earn a profit can attain that level. If the stock price continues to climb in the short term, I will likely bail on the belief I can find another stock that will at least equal the expected growth.

  • Reply to

    Switched my OPK shares to BRLI

    by farryman008 Jun 4, 2015 2:30 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jun 5, 2015 2:32 PM Flag

    Many years of negative earnings ... that's enough due diligence for me

  • Reply to

    52.58 a share its bought for and its 39.7?

    by stocksarerigged Jun 4, 2015 1:10 PM
    drshowme drshowme Jun 8, 2015 2:28 PM Flag

    Well ... "OPK is much higher in 5 years than BRLI" ...I certainly hope we all get to test that judgment ... since the only way one will be able to compare BRLI and OPK in 5 years will be if this deal does NOT go through ... works for me

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