Just look at their numbers compared to SPWR of FSLR. I would wait for a dip to buy SPWR or FSLR, but a good play i think would be to short SCTY and buy SPWR. From what i can tell.
Don't be fooled. Todays move was mostly hype. They just announced earnings of $.22 last quarter. Who really thought they were going to lose money this quarter. Guidance was ok, but not surprising at all. They didn't even raise full year revenue or earnings guidance. Gaap accounting shenanigans and zero tax rate. Gray beard portfolio managers will not be buying in up here i think. There will be a better entry point i think. $18.25-18.75 will surely be revisited. Earlier in the year it corrected from $13's to $9's.
On a side note, take a look at shorting SCTY. That should be selling at half the market cap of SPWR.
Do I understand correctly that they have a larger leasing business than SCTY? Are they doing the same thing with the leasing business as SCTY? If so, shouldn't SPWR have a much higher market cap than SCTY? Or are they penalizing SPWR for the manufacturing business which doesn't make money? Can somebody please compare SCTY's business structure to that of SPWR. Thanks!!
The past weeks rally will be taken back if that spread doesn't get back above $9 quick. My analysis is that CVR, CVRR and HFC are the most impacted by the declining crude differentials. If this spread were to actually fall to $2 and stay down i would expect CVRR to get cut in half. Yes in half. you would see maintenance Q's were the refineries are down, earnings go toward breakeven. Not predicting that, but keep an eye on it. CVRR is almost entirely a play on crude differentials. Their refineries overall are #$%$. Only the abiliity to get crude cheap is their value.
The CVRR dividend for the first quarter would have only been around 60-80 cents had the brent spread been at the current level of around $9 and had their been a typical first quarter maintenance turnaround. Based on current spreads, a dividend of about half of what was declared might be a typical first quarter payout. That would still be a good % dividend. But investors should be realists. CVRR bought the smaller refinery for only $525 million in late 2011. At that time the Brent spread was as wide as it is now. CVRR is now trading at $25000 per BDP capacity. That values the smaller refinery purchase that has 70k BDP capacity at $1.75 billion. There must be some reason they agreed to sell it for only $525 million. I don't know what the catch is. But there must be one. Refineries were very hot already at the time of the purchase. Just know that when you buy CVRR at $34/share, you are paying triple the price that was paid just 6 quarters ago. It could be that it was just the greatest purchase in history. My guess is that big money knows that when the Brent spread goes back to $2, that small refinery doesn't make tons of profit.
No more bashing. He even started talking good about them. They kept the dividend. Maybe now is the time? I think steel demand in this country is about to take off some. Homebuilding is coming back, and with it new strip malls ect over next few years maybe? If it wasn't for Bernanke ECB and japan printing all they can, I think WLT would be doomed. But since they are and WLT is so incredibly leveraged, it could go to $28 pretty easily which would be a good % return. Really it is impossible to value a company with the degree of both operating and financial leverage as WLT. it is really like 6 timies leveraged. 3 times with debt, and another 2 times at least with operating leveerage. Any uptic in met pricing and this goes up 30% in a week.
Wall street has dogged ABX from $45 down $27 because of spiraling costs. The $26 to $17 move was just dumb overkill. I view the lower cost guidance and lowering cap ex and spending as a game changer. Will bring investors back.
India investors are lining up to by the GDX as well. Tomorrow ABX may actually be green.
Don't be silly. They have like 1 billion ounces of silver and 100 million ounces of gold in the ground. That is like $170 billion. They could halt production at every mine temporariliy and the stock would be still worth $20 I think. (not counting debt service ect ect. but you get my point.).