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Microsoft Corporation Message Board

dskmoney 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 11, 2014 1:19 AM Member since: Sep 13, 2012
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  • dskmoney Sep 11, 2014 1:19 AM Flag

    So this was my point on another post. The CEO and company knew if they were being chosen to have their sapphire glass put in the iPhones, and they raised guidance any way. So they must be making some tight margins on something.

  • Well, with a 52 week high at $20.54, if you take the 38.2% retracement down, you get...$12.69. We got to $12.65 today, so from a projection standpoint, that's pretty close. I just hope that this sucker goes up some and doesn't decide to hit the 50% retracement.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Ion-x = gorilla glass

    by randall311 Sep 10, 2014 12:20 AM dskmoney Sep 10, 2014 4:18 AM Flag

    The CEO had to know that they were not going to be getting the iPhone. So he even raised forecasts for the full year revenue and earnings per share in light of probably knowing that during the last conference call.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Interesting options activity today.

    by earningsrule Sep 8, 2014 2:15 PM dskmoney Sep 8, 2014 2:18 PM Flag

    Agreed. For an institution, that's not a lot of money ($210k), but it is a pretty large bet, or even hedge.

  • by dskmoney Sep 5, 2014 3:40 PM Flag

    I wonder if this whole thing is really the opposite of what most people say. I really think that these analysts are idiots any way, and that there is no real way to determine future profitability, which is why there were buy recommendations, and sell recommendations the same week.

    I'm thinking that instead of running this up to $20 before 9/9 and then people selling the Tim Cook speech, it's the opposite, where there was some selling off, but this thing will skyrocket up on Cook's speech. If you look at the last two AAPL launches, one went down into the event (such as this time around), then jumped at the conference. The other ran up into the conference then sold off.

    I'm hoping for a huge run into $25 buy month's end, but in full disclosure, I did outright buy some puts to protect my profits in case of the opposite. I'll have no issue #$%$ away the premiums paid for this thing to go straight up.

    Have a good weekend. I'm going to try to relax. :)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dskmoney Sep 2, 2014 3:05 AM Flag

    You know what, go look around the web and see what it costs to replace an iPhone 5s screen/LCD. Over $100, more like $130. If I can pay $100 to avoid paying $130+, I'd do it, IF the sapphire does what it says. Back when the iPhone 5s first came out, a screen/lcd replacement was $199. So there will be buyers here at the upper end.

  • dskmoney Aug 28, 2014 3:27 PM Flag

    I'm not sure I would too worried, only because AAPL has a way to compel the buyer into their flagship models. Either by the "cool" factor, or an exclusive feature (like the biometric home button in the 5s). These phones are luxery phones, regardless of what they want to say. I mean you can get a TracPhone for $50 plus some time, and AAPL's trying to convince you a $500 iPhone 5c at 8x that is a bargain.

    The market for these devices are for higher end consumers. I actually own a Samsung Note 3 and an iPhone 5s, both for different reasons. If the lower end does not get the sapphire so be it. I think that with 50% of the people that took that poll wanted sapphire glass, they're going to pay for it.

    Plus with all the carriers probably coming out with specials to get people over to the new iPhone 6, they'll make the phone affordable for the high end devices. For instance, I pay like $20/month for my 5s when I got it, with 0% interest from T-Mobile.

    Just some random thoughts. :)

  • dskmoney Aug 28, 2014 3:23 PM Flag

    I should be. I seem to be making as many mistakes as they do lately. :)

  • dskmoney Aug 28, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    Good point logic, so I'll re-phrase my original message to say that unless AAPL/GTAT can keep the whole world silent, then even the companies that supply GTAT with the materials to make synthetic sapphire would spill someone out there in public.

    Am I completely wrong to thing that AAPL does not have that type of power? I mean, nothing is EVER a secret on Wall Street. Nothing, but this has to be the biggest mystery of all time because NO FIRM has come out with any conviction either way.

    I really must be glib on this. :) Wouldn't be the first time.

  • dskmoney Aug 28, 2014 2:43 PM Flag

    Here's what I don't understand. If there was a shortage in sapphire, why aren't we seeing all these stories from the miners of sapphire and emeralds that actually supply the material to companies like GTAT? These analysts don't know squat.

    It's not like AAPL can keep the whole world quiet on every single thing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What is and what is not priced in?

    by evenmoreobscureanalyst Aug 26, 2014 7:56 PM dskmoney Aug 26, 2014 8:09 PM Flag

    I think you're right on the "other areas sapphire can (and will) be used." I wonder if since AAPL helped pay for the plant, if GTAT can only sell to them. Obscure thought I know, but if I'm paying my partner to build something for my benefit, I would want exclusivity, especially if the parts (or in this case sapphire) were in short supply.

    I honestly think that even if there was some announcement about the iWatch and GTAT sapphire, it may propel the stock 50 cents at the most, just for the day. The iWatch to me is a non-event for us. Just an opinion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    sept options

    by goingupnow1 Aug 26, 2014 6:36 PM dskmoney Aug 26, 2014 8:05 PM Flag

    Yeah, it would be a #$%$ spread to do it that way, I agree. This thing is going to swing wildly 9/8 and 9/9 I'm sure.

  • Reply to

    Options Advice?

    by kyia2005 Aug 26, 2014 2:41 PM dskmoney Aug 26, 2014 7:55 PM Flag

    Kyia2005, I'm very aggressive, so take this input with that pre-text. If you want to play the iPhone 6 announcement, play the weekly option straddle at $18 or if you're extreme, take the $19 call and $17 put combo. This is a high beta stock, so it should move either way come announcment.

    Now as far as wanting to get into the capital appreciation potential of this stock, everyone else had it right. Just buy the stock, and buy more when you can.

    My assumption is that while selling puts is an option, if you've got limited funds, it does require a decent-sized margin account to cover the amount of any options exercised against you.

    I actually will be looking at premiums for the 9/12 expiration as I might have to hedge an overweighted position in GTAT (yep, bought too much percentage wise to portfolio but it worked out) and since I think the options will price in a steep premium for the AAPL announcement, I'm looking at the at-the-money and one to two strikes out of the money. If the premium isn't there, then I'll just put some of the profits to work by outright buying some puts. If it goes up, the stock is probably going to $25, and I'll probably lose $1/share due to the options hedge, but if GTAT tanks after the AAPL announcment, I can sell the puts to some poor soul and still keep the stock and just take some covered profits off the table.

    Hope this helps.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    sept options

    by goingupnow1 Aug 26, 2014 6:36 PM dskmoney Aug 26, 2014 7:45 PM Flag

    I see what you're saying now, it's the regular expiration, not the weekly. I'm looking to play the weekly, the week of the announcement, and if I write the calls then I expect the options to act like they do the day of an after-market-close earnings announcement, which means PACKED with premium due to the expanded implied volatility.

    Any way, to answer your question, it very well could be a spread since the volume is pretty similar on 7000+ contracts traded at each level. My assumption is that a bull would be selling the 19's and buying the 17's in case it gets blitzed, and a bear would be buying the 19's and selling the 17's. My guess only, either that or someone really thinks it's going down. I guess someone could also be writing naked puts if they don't mind owning the stock at 19 and 17 respectively. My guess is one of the first two scenarios above.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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