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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

dsouth7777 376 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: Feb 24, 2012
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  • Reply to


    by dsouth7777 Feb 5, 2016 2:20 PM
    dsouth7777 dsouth7777 7 hours ago Flag

    Sure that make sense.

    But are the life companies only worth less than 1/2 tangible book?

    NWLI now at 45% of book.

  • Reply to


    by dsouth7777 Feb 5, 2016 2:20 PM
    dsouth7777 dsouth7777 Feb 8, 2016 11:30 AM Flag

    I guess my point was really that some insurance companies, whether life or prop/cas, trade very differently. Some obviously have support as their share prices don't drop 5% in a day. Yes, NWLI will probably never have that kind of support.

    We've had low rates for years and some of these companies have done a good job of dealing with that. But my goodness, are these companies only worth 1/2 of book value?

    I guess that answer is that when we are in a bear market, anything can happen.

  • dsouth7777 by dsouth7777 Feb 5, 2016 2:20 PM Flag

    It's amazing that some insurance companies, such as AEL and NWLI just get hammered day after day. But others, such as MKL and WTM seem to hang on to their market values and have support. They are all somewhat similar: smaller and not followed much. But AEL and NWLI get such puny valuations compare to MKL and WTM. Oh well, I guess that's just the way it is.

  • dsouth7777 by dsouth7777 Feb 3, 2016 5:05 PM Flag

    They earned .62 for the quarter.

    Special dividend of $1.24.........

  • My next stock, Synchrony Financial [SYF], was spun out of General Electric [GE]. It is the largest private-label credit-card company in the U.S. Synchrony has a little more than 800 million shares outstanding, and the stock sells for $29. Tangible common equity is just over $13 a share. The company could report $2.60 a share in earnings for 2015, and could earn $2.80 in 2016 and $3.10 for 2017. [Synchrony reported on Jan. 22 that it earned $2.65 a share in 2015.] Synchrony has a 40% share of the $100 billion private-label credit-card market.

    Retailers like private-label cards because they bypass the networks and their costs are lower. They have access to more customer data than they receive from a general-purpose card used in their stores. Also, retail partners receive a portion of the profits of the card portfolio. Spending on Synchrony credit cards is growing at a faster rate than the industry. Account balances are also growing faster. Synchrony receivables are growing by double digits compared to a growth rate of 4% for private-label cards and 3% for the industry in general.

    Gabelli: The company has its own clearing network.

    Priest: Private-label cards at large merchants account for 70% of Synchrony’s revenue. The company also has a consumer-credit business at smaller merchants, which contributes 20%. And it provides financing for elective medical procedures and veterinary procedures. Synchrony is a pure play on the American consumer. The most troubling aspect of these sorts of companies is the percentage of receivables tied to borrowers with low FICO credit scores. Throughout the industry, it is about 20%. We would like to think Synchrony has a good handle on its borrowers, but if credit risk increases among consumers, these companies might feel it a bit. In short, with Synchrony, one has a highly liquid, well-capitalized balance sheet and a motivated management. We expect a share-buyback program and a cash dividend later this year.

  • dsouth7777 dsouth7777 Jan 28, 2016 4:41 PM Flag

    Yes, agree. Seems like since I've been following this company that there always has been sellers around $18. Also, no insiders that I can tell have ever bought any shares.

  • dsouth7777 dsouth7777 Jan 28, 2016 4:18 PM Flag

    I hope you are correct!!

  • Reply to

    what price to buy more shares

    by batraa Jan 14, 2016 3:18 PM
    dsouth7777 dsouth7777 Jan 25, 2016 12:40 PM Flag

    Well you have your chance again. Current bid is 212.

  • dsouth7777 by dsouth7777 Jan 24, 2016 6:02 PM Flag

    AXP is losing customers and profits heading south.

    SYF is retaining customers and has good return on assets. Also a possibly initiating a dividend and/or share buybacks this year.

  • Reply to

    what price to buy more shares

    by batraa Jan 14, 2016 3:18 PM
    dsouth7777 dsouth7777 Jan 15, 2016 10:10 AM Flag

    But I do agree that at 1/2 book, it is ridiculous.

  • Reply to

    what price to buy more shares

    by batraa Jan 14, 2016 3:18 PM
    dsouth7777 dsouth7777 Jan 15, 2016 10:03 AM Flag

    Who knows in this market? No support, nobody cares.

    Also, until there is some kind of positive change with the capital allocation here, I will not waste another dime of my money.

  • dsouth7777 by dsouth7777 Jan 12, 2016 3:32 PM Flag

    What the $##$# is going on here?

  • Reply to

    3 Tenths of 1%

    by dsouth7777 Jan 6, 2016 4:17 PM
    dsouth7777 dsouth7777 Jan 11, 2016 2:22 PM Flag

    Oh and yes other insurers are cheap. But that makes me question if rates will ever rise and/or if the economy is heading south. The price action this last week has been disturbing, to say the least.

    The big ones like MET and LNC are hitting new 52-week lows. Not good.

  • Reply to

    3 Tenths of 1%

    by dsouth7777 Jan 6, 2016 4:17 PM
    dsouth7777 dsouth7777 Jan 11, 2016 2:14 PM Flag

    Good question. Probably just more of frustration that they don't do anything for the shareholder, as we continually discuss.

    One would think if they did more for the shareholder (dividend / buybacks), engaged a bit with the institutional owners, and maybe did a 4-1 stock split it might get more trading volume and support.

    If I were management or on the BOD and I saw my company's stock drop 7% in one day on .003 percent of shares outstanding I would be doing something to help stop that kind of madness. But no one at NWLI gives a frick.

  • Reply to

    They better start a Divey payment

    by hottie_stocks Dec 23, 2015 1:38 PM
    dsouth7777 dsouth7777 Jan 8, 2016 8:33 AM Flag

    Didn't they file a registration for a $1 Billion preferred? I'm guessing that would help with any growth initiatives and provide for buybacks and a dividend.

  • Reply to

    GE is once again IMELLLLLLTING.

    by richard_a_irving Jan 7, 2016 1:33 PM
    dsouth7777 dsouth7777 Jan 7, 2016 4:36 PM Flag

    I don't own GE or really care for that matter. This is the SYF board.

    But any idiot can see that the whole market is down ~5% this week.

    Some individual stocks are down 10% or more...this week.

    Why would anyone think GE would be immune?

  • dsouth7777 by dsouth7777 Jan 6, 2016 4:17 PM Flag

    Of the shares traded today and it was off almost 7%

    That's .003.

  • Reply to


    by dsouth7777 Jan 4, 2016 4:30 PM
    dsouth7777 dsouth7777 Jan 6, 2016 3:48 PM Flag

    Just because the management here acts like dictators doesn't mean it's right to continue to expect the status quo. Companies should be run for all constituents and the minority shareholders have no say what-so-ever.

    Maybe the #$%$ whooping the market is giving them will wake them up, but I doubt it.

  • Reply to

    The Management

    by dsouth7777 Jan 4, 2016 2:32 PM
    dsouth7777 dsouth7777 Jan 6, 2016 3:42 PM Flag

    Good points. If I didn't already have enough lifeco's I would look to buy some KCLI.

    It's just crazy that they all get such cheap valuations in the market and them presto!, when the buyout comes, some of them double overnight.

  • Reply to


    by dsouth7777 Jan 6, 2016 11:18 AM
    dsouth7777 dsouth7777 Jan 6, 2016 2:24 PM Flag

    The funny thing is that some banks that I follow and even some BDCs are not having a bad day, or week for that matter.

    If the lifeco's have managed this long with low rates I would think they can continue to muddle through.

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