What would stop China from coming in and saying to Peabody, "Obama probably wouldn't let us buy your U.S. assets, but what If we take the Australian assets off your hands at a nice premium?". What are the Australian mines worth on their own?
I'm amazed we haven't seen bankruptcies, massive layoffs, and consolidation in the coal sector by this time. How can some of the smaller players, especially private coal companies, even meet payroll at this point in time? I'm only holding a relatively small core position in BTU now.
I don't think so.
I spent a career on Madison Avenue in the advertising business. Facebook sells ads, and it's a slow growth business...period. It can never generate enough growth in the future to justify its current valuation, never; so eventually it will plummet, a long way down, to fair value. I'm not short or long the stock.
And, obviously no one cares. Valuation doesn't matter, until it matters.
Listen, the 3rd largest component of GDX, being Newmont (NEM), was down almost 4.5% today, yet the ETF was only down .5%. There's quite a bit for the shorts to be afraid of: Gold and silver prices are not going down, despite the constant negative jawboning from the Bullion Banks. The miners have been reporting terrible 2013 full-year (and Q4), but the market is just shrugging it off. The folks who only buy on technical indicators are now seeing gold miners trading above key moving averages, with beautiful left to right ascending charts.
Shorts should be frightened. Longs should be buying the dips.
I agree, most of the big gold miners have had an initial "sell the news reaction", and then bounced back relatively quickly. Today's earnings for NEM are rear viewing at the bottom of a horrible cycle. We're entering a prolonged bull market for precious metals and gold miners like Newmont.
zachperonio...your short is not working. There are so many other stocks and sectors that are ripe for shorting. Go long GDX...stop fighting the trend. This is the Year of the Gold Miner.
The shorts will continue to look into the rear view mirror, ignoring the prices of gold and silver, listening to the Bullion banks bash the precious metal trade. All China has say is, "Yes, we're buyers of gold on the open market...we plan to build a reserve of gold bullion just like our Western counterparts"...then gold moves to $2,000 in no time.
If Facebook can reach a $170 billion market cap today on only $11 billion in 2014 revenue estimates, than the GDX going to 30, 40 or 50 is quite reasonable.
They will NEVER grow into their $170 billion market cap. They sell advertising. Global advertising growth is only about 2-3% per year. Where do you think Facebook's revenue growth is going to come from?
Cover your shorts on GDX and go long.
At the bottom of a cycle, everything get written off, and all looks bleak. We're entering a longer term bull market for gold miners and precious metals. Cover your shorts...save your wealth and sanity.
A lot of the write downs, particularly their gold reserves, can be written back up in value if/when the price of gold goes up. Also, much of these losses can get carried over to a time when ABX is making money, minimizing their tax exposure in some part. Very often, at the bottom of a cyclical, a company will write off everything, plus the kitchen sink, and start afresh into the new up cycle.
I meant "homogenous". It drives crazy that the analyst never seems to say, "every single ounce of gold and silver that is mined today, has a buyer tomorrow". China is buying gold everyday. India is smuggling gold everyday. Gold miners, especially the low cost producers, are is a sweet spot right now.
GDX is a basket of gold mining stocks: some have high debt; some have low debt;some are mining in politically untenable places like Peru or Indonesia; some are mining in Canada; it's not a heterogeneous group of companies. The ETF trades like it's a single stock...up 4% yesterday, down 3.5% today?
Keep them coming ddonny31.
The poor 2013 earnings are a rear view glimpse at a horrible year for CCJ, along with its embattled industry peers...the CCJ stock price has been rebounding all morning based on forward projections, as it should.
I bought more at $20, which is about where CCJ's 200 day MA is sitting. It sounds like Cameco will have slightly higher revenue for 2014, positioned against drastically lower capital expenses...this should provide a nice bottom line for the year. By, 2015 there should be new nuke facilities up and running, and the Japanese should have some plants back online.
If Yellin suspends taper, it means that all of the U.S. economic recovery talk has just been malarkey, and the response to a revived QE stimulus may not be a continued, mindless positive for the stock market indices... in fact, it may result in a major bid toward precious metals and flight to safety instruments, like T bonds.