That's a fairly significant IMO. If they award to gural this time around then there is no 4th license floating around that could potential be awarded before 7 year exclusivity period is up.
Looks like one if the brokerages houses might have to use their semi-annual "bottom is in" calls to fight back all these negative headlines. Thing is...most of the perpetual bullish analysis dreaming of a return to the golden days of money laundering and illegal junket credit have already been used recently. They might want to wait to use their "bottom is in" call when the 40% new supply starts trickling in (or flooding in) and a met with a decrease on visitors and spend.
Analysts at Daiwa Securities Group Inc said the move was “another incremental negative on Macau’s liquidity environment”.
“While the exact extent of these crackdowns is difficult to quantify, our ground checks point to a direct impact on customer sentiment and business volumes,” analysts Jamie Soo, Adrian Chan and Jennifer Wu said in a note on Monday.
The Daiwa team said the “purported UnionPay-related clampdowns” had already resulted in a “50 percent to 80 percent decline in UnionPay transaction volumes since its peak in first quarter 2014”. They added that jewellery and pawnshop operators in Macau have suggested that the slowdown “is due mainly to customers’ concerns over the reported government scrutiny of overseas transactions, especially in Macau.”
“This liquidity risk further dampens the [gaming] sector’s GGR [gross gaming revenue] outlook and presents just one more reason to avoid the sector, in our view,” they added.
Visitor arrivals to Macau numbered 2.65 million in July, down by 3.8 percent year-on-year, data from the city’s Statistics and Census Service showed on Wednesday. The monthly tally of visitors to the city has declined year-on-year in five of the first seven months of 2015.
On Tuesday, separate data showed that total non-gaming spending by visitors to Macau continues falling this year as fewer tourists visit the city.
In July the number of visitors from mainland China decreased by 6.1 percent year-on-year to 1.76 million. It was however an improvement from the previous month, when the number of mainland tourists totalled 1.44 million, which was the lowest aggregate monthly figure of such visitors since March 2013, according to official data.
Macau’s visitor arrivals in the seven months to July 31 decreased by 3.5 percent from the prior-year period to 17.41 million. Mainland Chinese accounted for 66.2 percent of the aggregate number of visitors in the first seven months this year – or 11.54 million visitors, down by 4.5 percent year-on-year.
Investment analysts have said that headline visitor numbers are not directly correlated to overall gaming demand, as gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the Macau market has been typically skewed to high-end play. Official data show that Macau monthly casino GGR fell for 14 consecutive months up to July, judged year-on-year.
But a newly published study hinted that Macau residents are getting tired of tourist crowds. One of the authors of the study said that issues weighing down on residents include “traffic congestion and an inadequate public transportation system”.
Meanwhile, the China Daily newspaper reported this week that travel agencies in Guangdong province booking group trips to Macau and Hong Kong would be urged to use digital forms for government approval starting on September 1. By the end of this year all tour groups will adopt digital forms, the newspaper said, quoting the China National Tourism Administration.
Digital forms can help monitor travel groups and curb illegal travel operators, a representative of the tourism bureau was quoted saying. Guangdong province was chosen for the pilot project because it is “an important source of outbound tourists,” the person added.
Visitor spending slides
The additional data on Macau visitors’ spending showed they paid MOP12.25 billion (US$1.53 billion), excluding gaming expenses, in the second quarter of 2015, down by 24.7 percent from a year earlier and 8.3 percent sequentially, the city’s statistics bureau said.
Total spending by overnight visitors to Macau declined by 30.4 percent year-on-year in the April to June period, while that of same-day visitors increased by 7.3 percent. The figures also show that per-capita spending of visitors in the three months to June 30 was MOP1,668, down by 22.1 percent year-on-year.
Market wide in Macau, shopping accounted for 45.1 percent of overall visitors spending in the three months to June 30, followed by accommodation at 24.9 percent and food and beverage at 21.7 percent. The overall share of spending in shopping and accommodation however is down from 49 percent and 26 percent respectively in the prior-year period.
The biggest-spending visitors in the second quarter of 2015 were mainland Chinese people, with outlay on non-gaming products of MOP2,012 per head, down by 24.3 percent year-on-year. Shopping accounted for 52.8 percent of their total spending.
A separate set of official data showed that the aggregate value of retail sales in Macau fell to MOP14.26 billion in the second quarter of this year, 13 percent less than a year earlier. Sales of watches, clocks and jewellery – popular among mainland visitors – accounted for 21 percent of aggregate sales in the period but was down 29 percent from the prior-year period.
Macau’s efforts to generate a significant portion of its earnings from non-gaming activities faces significant challenges, highlighted a recent commentary by Fitch Ratings Inc. On Monday, the ratings agency said Macau needs to be realistic about the volume and type of non-gaming revenues its casino resorts can produce.
In 2014, fewer than 10 percent of Macau casino resorts’ gross revenues came from non-gaming activities, estimated Alex Bumazhny, a director at Fitch. In comparison, the Las Vegas Strip made 63 percent of its revenues from non-gaming in that period, said the ratings agency.
CN don't get me wrong, the chairman of the commission resigning is of course not a positive event. It could very well result in delays. And of course this is NYNY, so if something can go wrong, it likely will. Always has. and this NYS government, the most dysfunctional in the land with 4 previous majority and minority leaders Ip on felony charges. But I give him benefit of the doubt since it's an unpaid position, he's been there unpaid for 18 months, process he was installed to see through is coming to an conclusion, and it's the start of the semester at Hobart and Smith.
If this was Robert Williams, the executive director of the commission abruptly resigning would be much more cues for concern. I've seen commissioners at public agencies show up late to public hearings talking about they have dinner plans and have to leave early. They have full time jobs.
More importantly they scheduled the next meeting for September 10th. Comment period ends September 9th. Coincidence? I think that Gearan knows this is all wrapping up within a month's time, and so why not resign now, before the start of the semester? He could have waited until September or October to resign, but he felt the process is coming to a conclusion and his work is done. That's my take.
CPAT if I were you I would Sell, sell, sell! Obviously there is a massive scandal brewing beneath the surface. Quick cpat get out while you can!
China central bank in pact with Macau to battle money laundering
A visitor (L) gets information at the Global Gaming Expo Asia in the world's biggest gambling hub of Macau on May 20, 2015. With casino revenues in Macau plummeting thanks to Beijing's anti-corruption crackdown and a slowdown in the Chinese economy, the gambling hub is seeking to reinvent itself as a family-friendly mass market destination as the high rollers stay away.
China central bank in pact with Macau to battle money laundering
Reuters | Friday, Aug 21, 2015
HONG KONG - China's central bank said on Friday it would bolster cross- border anti-money laundering measures with authorities in the gambling hub of Macau with the signing of a new memorandum of understanding.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the Monetary Authority of Macau signed the pact to prevent money laundering and terrorist financing activities, the PBOC said in a statement.
In a notice on its website, the bank said the agreement would "strengthen bilateral exchanges", including those on anti-money laundering regulations, information exchange mechanisms and on-site inspections. (http://bit.ly/1Nq0JVn)
The notice did not give specific measures, however.
Macau's massive gambling sector has long been considered a money laundering blackspot, susceptible to unchecked capital flows in and out of China, including through China's state-backed China UnionPay debit cards. (http://reut.rs/1lYjktd)
A prominent Macau junket operator, who has been the focus of a lengthy police investigation, was recently accused of laundering HK$1.8 billion ($232 million) through bank accounts in Hong Kong. (http://reut.rs/1PpBYGx)
The PBOC also said the two sides would adopt recommendations from a global anti-money laundering body, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), to strengthen regional supervision against money laundering.
The Macau government could not immediately be reached for comment.
1. If you actually believed that dillution and employees and insiders selling shares was a good reason front stock to rally 50% in 3 days....you are either dumb or just disgustingly greedy if you did not se on that run up. Longs do realize that the underwriters pushed it up to force covering because it was part of the agreement with SHAK to do so. You do understand they part of the game, right?
2. They sell flat top grease burgers Cooked in their own fat (unlike a grill). Simply put, that sort of burger is soooooo unhealthy that you simply can't eat shake shack on a regular basis. Throw in a milkshake and fries and you are doing serious damage to your health.
3. Who the hell wants a burger with American cheese?
Sorry guys..I couldn't help myself...been a long time since the bears have had a day in the sun. Trading in NYNY is entertaining...but the real fun right now is being short all the other overhyped central bank fueled crap out there. Loving making money while watching smug bulls get their asses handed to them.
Once China started in with the insane issht they are doing in their markets...I felt like the water was warm enough to go in past my waist.
Well that's an easy one to answer. The underwriters ran it up to $76 after they announced insiders would be selling shares. That's how it works. It's was built into their agreement from day one. The underwriters were not paid to just allow the stock to sell-off without allowing their client (SHAK insiders) to get out first before a disorderly sell-off. It's disgusting but that is the name of the game. Wall steer not for the faint of heart.
But hey, the analysts know better than Lawrence Ho. I mean...you can't make this stuff up...lol...did the analysts just remain willfully blind to this recent interview????
Jeeze guys...you just gonna stick your heads in the sand and pretend that article did not Get posted? No concern we are into the long anticipated "easier comps" stage, yet results keep disappointing? No longs are concerned that a massive new casino came online in June and GGR is still falling off a cliff? No? Not even the slightest concern about the 40% more supply that will flood the market over the next 3-18 months? None?????? You guys must really really believe in the mom and pop story being pushed by the "bottom is in" addicts over at Union, Sanford and Credit Suisse. At least David Bain has for the most part gone into quasi-hiding. Sanford has no shame! Lol, now they are pushing this "investors are very interested in macau" meme garbage. Lol...of clear they are interested! They are utterly confused and and wagon defined what the hell is going in on the opaque world of communist central planning, and wondering if the illegal credit and junkets and money laundering will ever come back! They cannot accept I will never comeback and are still in the denial phase.
Uh oh! Sanford and Credit Suisse used there semi-annual "bottom is in" call only a couple months ago.
grant Galverston and gang over at Union last used their "bottom is in" call in January, but have been coat tailing the other desperate analysts "bottom
Is and everything will be awesome" calls the last several months.
Hey, no problem....nothing that 50% more supply can't help! Who cares about the falling yuan and the exchange rate? Who care about another 6% sell off in the last hour of trading in china?
Everything will be awesome when we get the new supply and mom and pop will be tripping over themselves to spend spend spend!
I bet room rates will rise rise rise!
So how much GGR did Galaxy's behemoth casino resort add to total revenues?
At this point some of thee brokerages obsession with a rapid recovery in macau is getting flat out bizzarre and I would expect their clients to start to lose patience with their emotionally fueled calls.
Forecasts by several analysts based on unofficial industry returns for the first 16 days of the month suggest that GGR for the whole of August will be between MOP17.5 billion (US$2.2 billion) and MOP18.4 billion. That would mean a decline of 36 percent to 39 percent in year-on-year terms.
Aside from June 2015 – when monthly GGR in Macau stood at MOP17.4 billion – the last time the city’s casino industry delivered a monthly GGR tally below MOP18.5 billion was in November 2010.
“We believe low hold rate has impacted revenue so far this month, but the underlying trends remain quite lacklustre,” UBS Securities Asia Ltd analysts Anthony Wong and Angus Chan wrote in a note released on Monday.
The two analysts noted that a poor GGR performance in August might lead the Macau government to introduce previously flagged austerity measures to control spending. The local authorities have said that if the city’s average monthly GGR drops below the MOP20-billion threshold used to prepare the revised 2015 budget, cost-cutting measures would be introduced. The government has yet to detail where such cuts might be made.
In the first seven months of 2015, Macau’s accumulated GGR stood at MOP140.3 billion, or a monthly average of MOP20.04 billion, according to official data from the city’s casino regulator.
“For the full month of August, we expect GGR at MOP17.5 billion to MOP18.4 billion, or down 36 percent to 39 percent year-on-year, compared to -35 percent year-on-year in July,” Mr Wong and Mr Chan stated. “At the high end of our estimates, year-to-date monthly GGR would be around MOP19.8 billion, below the MOP20-billion per month threshold that the Macau government has set for its budget, and should trigger some spending cuts at the local government.”
The UBS analysts added that the VIP gaming segment continues to be weak. “Based on our checks with industry participants, we believe junket room closures will continue into the third quarter, with recent/planned closures of at least four rooms at properties including Four Seasons, Galaxy Macau and Wynn [Macau].”
Wells Fargo Securities LLC now expects Macau’s August GGR to decline between 36 percent and 38 percent in year-on-year terms, following the latest unofficial industry figures. “We are assuming roughly MOP585 million to MOP615 million [for average daily revenue] for the remaining weeks in August,” analyst Cameron McKnight wrote in a note on Monday.
Brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd’s estimate points to a GGR decrease of 37 percent year-on-year in August. “Our industry channel check indicates that Macau GGR for the month through August 16 was MOP9.2 billion,” stated analysts Vitaly Umansky, Simon Zhang and Bo Wen. “Last week’s average daily revenue was MOP586 million, marginally higher than the previous week’s average daily revenue of MOP567 million,” they added.
“That August 2015 is now on track for a 6 percent month-on-month decline seems to indicate a full demand recovery that some are hoping for is yet to be seen,” observed analysts Richard Huang and Stella Xing from Japanese brokerage Nomura in their Tuesday note.
I'll wait 18 months...2 years whatever it is...but I couldn't pass up a position at a $197m market cap. I'll take my chances with the AG investigation discovering that a crime was committed by one of the consultants.
If Montreign becomes operational there is no chance it will remain at a 30-40% discount to projected annual revenues (which is where tins now). License fee is paid for with only 7m new shares. The rest is going to capital improvements or going to sit on the books per their agreement with credit Suisse.
Bring it on Ralph/Ted/Joe!
Unless you are forced to sell like Ted, you have to have rocks in your head to sell here.