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Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) Message Board

dtmccune3 49 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 hours ago Member since: Jan 10, 2001
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  • Reply to

    AMT equity offering...

    by dtmccune3 23 hours ago
    dtmccune3 dtmccune3 13 hours ago Flag

    I meant ATM...anyway the beauty of this method is they can sell whenever they want....true they probably could sell over 10k shares in a day, but they don't have to....they have 28m net cash right now...so they have time over the next 6-12 months to slowly sell some shares to raise cash. I think the other key is...management doesn't want to sell stock if they don't have to...want as little dilution as possible.

    The other thing to keep in mind is that they are not locked into doing the ATM method....they can still issue debt, or other stock offerings...and they could easily do some block trades. If you think about it not having the shares outstanding or trading is what has kept some funds away....that could change. I could easily see a fund doing a big block or possibly one of dmrc's strategic partners investing...I think that Bruce mentioned this was a possibility on the call as well.

  • I really got to hand it to Bruce and DMRC....their decision to go with the AMT equity offering is a great decision...low cost, low event risk, and a lot of flexibility on the timing. They may not even have to raise much money...only spending 8mil in H2...should have proof of concept by year end....which should start a snowball effect...leading to revs from barcode in 2015. The IP license/litigation is the wild card...but I am confident in their IP and ability to collect one way or the other.

    I wouldn't mind them selling some shares over $30....it would actually be good to increase the float a bit...to give them a bit of cushion in case of litigation etc...also think there is probably a good chance that a strategic investor puts some money in.

  • With so many companies at their highs and extremely overvalued...won't name names...why on earth would anyone short a company with 7mil shares outstanding, 200m market cap??? Always amazes me especially when they know nothing about the business or opportunity the company has...I guess it worked the last few weeks bc there has not been news and everyone knew the numbers are not there right now for various reasons.

    Let's see them get out now...

    No one is going to sell after that conf call...

  • dtmccune3 by dtmccune3 Jul 23, 2014 7:00 PM Flag

    For those wondering who the retail partner is...first of all does it matter? They are a top 5 retailer in the world...and sounds like the other ones they are working with are all in the top 10-20 in the world...

    It is pretty easy to deduce who it is....it is either Costco or Walmart...

    Target is not in the top 5 and given their problems are unlikely the partner lol...Home Depot also unlikely bc its less traditional consumer products which should be the sweet spot...the others that round out the top 5 are Tessco, Metro, and Kroger. I guess it could be Kroger, but seem less likely that WMT and COST.

    My money is on COST...mainly bc we were already working with them already and obviously they were interested in the technology and they are very tech and process centric. I think it is also not a coincidence they mentioned a top 5 retailer...and COST just happens to be #5 in the world from what I can tell.

    #1 Costco...#2 Walmart...#3 Kroger....those are the most likely.

    If COST or WMT implement this...it will be copied by others....combine that with the Discover side that benefits the consumer....and now throw in the threat of Amazon Firefly and the potential solution dmrc will have with buy online now ie mobile payments...you get a pretty compelling solution.

  • dtmccune3 by dtmccune3 Jul 23, 2014 6:41 PM Flag

    pretty positive...
    progress on all fronts...mobile payments, IP, barcode...

    Sounds like Amazon Firefly could be using dmrc IP...sounds like they will be looking into this when the phone is out...bruce thought this was a significant development and a threat to retailers bc customers can go in a retail store and then buy it on amazon...he thinks this is just another reason why retailers will want to partner with dmrc...

    IP...almost filed litigation...thinks there are several cos that should have a license...sounds like there will be a lawsuit filed or they will get some decent license fees this year.

    Equity: They are being very prudent with their investment...and potential equity raises...have decided to go with ATM offering...which is basically the opposite of a buyback...dmrc can sell shares on the open market as needed. This is a low cost way to raise money...and gives them more flexibility....so they can wait for the share price to go higher after a big announcement or they can hold off on selling shares if they get licensing revs...overall they dont want to issue shares unless they have to bc they are all shareholders...

    mentioned that there was a pick up in short interest going into the call...guessing these idiots will either cover or get run over if not tomorrow then soon...this was actually one of the more positive calls I have heard in DMRC history. I guess it is still hard to comprehend the huge opportunity dmrc has if they are successful...I for one have been surprised by how fast barcode is progressing...this could be huge....and seems like we have the right retailers in on the proof of concept...

    my guess is stock goes back above 30 in pretty short order...

  • And you see all these hedge funds blowing out or reducing their positions...

    The stock has traded about 1 1/2 times it's total float over the past month...20% of the float on Friday alone.

    If you don't know who is holding the bag then it's you...

  • dtmccune3 dtmccune3 Jun 27, 2014 8:40 PM Flag

    Pricing of the invisible barcodes has not even been released, but dmrc said it would move toward the traditional barcode model...ie the prices will be reasonable and will likely be similar...maybe a slight premium at first.

  • You can read report for free at valuewalk....it's actually pretty good

  • Reply to

    $200

    by dtmccune3 Jun 17, 2014 11:14 AM
    dtmccune3 dtmccune3 Jun 27, 2014 3:14 PM Flag

    Turbo chef was a better stock...

    Middleby a good co, but not a great stock...rev growth will slow unless they find acquisitions...problem is they are bigger now so it takes bigger deals...look at Viking...obviously they wanted to get more into residential, but they are having problems. Eventually I think they do have the technology, but it won't be that easy.

    Valuation steep here...revisit at $65 on long side...or lower if market gets hit

  • dtmccune3 by dtmccune3 Jun 25, 2014 5:28 PM Flag

    Wouldn't be surprised if a secondary is coming...

    Would be pretty smart to raise cash at these valuations...would probably be some big shareholders taking some profits...woould help increase the float as well.

    It would tank the stock, but stock will tank soon anyway...so why not raise some cash and get some future sellers out now so the dump is only huge instead of massive lol

  • dtmccune3 by dtmccune3 Jun 25, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    Z back on the hard to borrow list...shorts are loading back up.

  • dtmccune3 dtmccune3 Jun 21, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    Guess the bull case is that they are going to grow revs 50-100%over the next 3-5 years... And then they will magically pull the carpet from under the even faster growth in their SG&A expenses to somehow have huge profits.

    Ain't gonna happen

  • Look at Altisource (ASPS)....that stock is down 35% from highs....and it is a much better company...granted they only compete with Z directly through a couple of subsidiaries, but any better financials ie they actually make a decent amount of money lol...better list of stock holders...all around a better company with much higher revs over 100 m in profits...but trades at half the market cap of Z.

    Zilllow has a great website, technology, service, but the stock is not trading on fundamentals. The low hanging fruit has been picked...once the top markets are more saturated I think they will find it harder to find the growth in the smaller markets.....and competition is growing more intense. Ton of companies doing the exact same thing...and I'm surprised goog doesn't have something in this space since they specialize in search and maps...highly highly doubt they would buy Z...so if they don't buy move or trlia then they probably just come out with their own company...would not be hard for them. Insiders selling bc the stock is trading on 2025 numbers lol...

    Anyway...if the stock does what asps did then it would be trading at about $85...if the market gets hit watch out

  • Reply to

    Will Utek’s stock drop below cash value?

    by pauldanzel Apr 12, 2014 3:35 AM
    dtmccune3 dtmccune3 Jun 19, 2014 3:02 PM Flag

    who is this mystery competitor?

  • dtmccune3 dtmccune3 Jun 17, 2014 5:11 PM Flag

    let the media say what they want...fact is the price wont be coming down much...the competitors want to sell at a high price as well...doubt merck paid 3.5 billion to charge a lot less than sovaldi...

    Abbvie already said they don't want to compete on price...Bristol Meyers have been having problems with their hcv treament...but both have spent a lot of money on R&D...

    Plus...sovaldi is cheaper than the drug treatments used previously by almost 1/2...the other drugs were cheaper, but had to be used for much much longer...and thats not even getting into the huge costs from liver damage and liver transplants etc.

    Clearly prices will come down and they will have rebates etc...but it won't be the huge drop some think...

  • Reply to

    $200

    by dtmccune3 Jun 17, 2014 11:14 AM
    dtmccune3 dtmccune3 Jun 17, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    getting walked up...someone about to take a dump lol

  • dtmccune3 by dtmccune3 Jun 17, 2014 11:14 AM Flag

    looks like viking continuing to underperform....no new acquisitions....probably harder to find good deals that will move the needle...any pop from the split that has happened or will happen likely short lived...

    going to look at the long side around $200

  • Read that there are 130-150million people infected with hcv...even if you use $7000/treatment...it's a huge number. Obviously not everyone will be able to get treated, but still...

    No wonder Merck paid up...

  • Reply to

    insider sales

    by kydrby15 Jun 3, 2014 11:57 AM
    dtmccune3 dtmccune3 Jun 5, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    Those options are likely from a while back...which is why price is low

  • Reply to

    insider sales

    by kydrby15 Jun 3, 2014 11:57 AM
    dtmccune3 dtmccune3 Jun 4, 2014 7:10 PM Flag

    Not sure I would read into insider selling that much...CEO and CFO own a ton of stock...and the Directors own a decent amount. Some of the selling was options.....and the other sales were not huge compared to their holdings...people sell for many reasons. If it continues then I would start to get a bit worried...

    I was surprised to see the short interest up so high...don't think I would want to be short this with the company's cash position and always the potential of AMAT finally biting the bullet and buying them. I guess it could just be a lot of short interest in that sector due to weakness and problems with 20/22nm node...

    Seems to me that UTEK is still sitting in a good position...although its a very cyclical industry.

    Overall, I have listened to all of UTEKs calls and these guys have always been pretty spot on about whats going on in the industry and have done a great job managing the cycles...they seem to think we are near the trough...so I am going with them and will add if it gets hit.

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