The real question: is this a cult long or a cult short stock? It looking more and mor like a cult short stock to me. They are either being greedy at this point or they are truly trapped. IMHO they are trapped or else they would have covered in the 3's.
Agreed slugworth. I do like today's action. It "appears" that a lot of effort to bring down the price is being met with significant resistance. I like it.
We will know Afrezza has arrived and is viewed as a real credible threat once we get bogus cancer risk studies being published. It will happen, but Afrezza will prevail. Simple logic points to a higher risk of long term health complications from inadequately controlled diabetes vs unfounded cancer risk.
Actually a comment by Hakan in, I think the last, investor meeting sparked last years run up did it not? "No more CRL's for Afrezza" Or something like that. Not big news true but it did spark a rally that lasted until after approval. Just saying. :)
1) Less Hypo events
2) Better patient compliance
3) Less diabetic complications due to lower average A1C
4) Fewer supply costs (syringes etc)
5) Less dependence on basal
Please add to the list. Is there any doubt that insurance will eventually be strongly behind Afrezza? The lower dependence on basal will also allow SNY to charge a premium for Afrezza.
They don't need the FDA to change the label. They only need to change the perception. They will do this (hopefully) with Endo's publishing papers and presenting results at scientific meetings. IMHO SNY is working to change the perception not the label.
They have to cover eventually. Are they really going to try to drive it to 1.00? At what point to they just declare victory and go home? The only thing that's going to stop this is sales. Lets hope they actually show some signs of life in the near future!!
Why aren't they targeting primary care physicians? Endo's will quickly bring in the equipment in if their patients are no longer coming in the door.
It is possible:
"Yes my primary care/internal medicine doctor treated me for 8 years. Once I became brittle and nothing seemed to work he suggested an insulin pump and ever since then I've been seeing an endocrinologist.
The cost of medication has nothing to do with what a doctor can prescribe. Best of Luck."
I agree truly. You are absolutely correct. One can never read into the future but the MNKD commercial story is far from over and is still early in the game. Those with the discipline to buy more here will likely reap the rewards later. Its a matter of faith at the moment. Good luck to you sir!
I agree the entire strategy played right into their hands. The controlled launch, inadequate manufacturing etc etc.
I am sure we will meander around these levels for a bit, but we will get back to "normal" levels once they decide to cover. The much anticipated short squeeze will only manage to get us back to pre-adcom 6ish levels.
Ironically if you look at this with a level head (hard at the moment) the 96M short shares almost guarantees 6's once they cover. (guessing at price of course, could be less could be more) If you just take a simple 30% from here we are back to 5.00.
The only thing that is going to really move this as we have know for some time is sales. In a normal world a product like this would generate significant speculative upside for future sales. At the moment there is no optimism.
The tide will turn, shorts will go long. I knew this was coming but its still a drag. Good luck to all longs.
It's annoying. If they have nothing to say other than the standard, it's also unprofessional and incompetent.
Interesting that the piece revealed that afrezza has been available for less than a month. How many other practices are in the same boat? How many more still don't have it?