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VirnetX Holding Corp Message Board

duckduffer 99 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: May 29, 2003
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  • duckduffer duckduffer 8 hours ago Flag

    At this point in time, my valuation for EXEL is $3B (roughly $13.50 PPS). I would not be the least bit surprised to see the PPS gradually trend to this valuation. As additional indications become positively derisked (HCC, EGFRwt & RET+NSCLC, combi therapy PD1's, etc) that valuation goes north.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jul 31, 2015 1:17 PM Flag

    IS a theory suggesting that prices and returns eventually move back towards the mean or average. What does that imply for EXEL? What is the average valuation for a late stage developmental biotech? Lot's of debate on this topic, with lots of well researched answers. IMO the minimum valuation for EXEL is going to be the sum total of all estimated Peak Annual Revenues for each indication and corresponding drug (Cobi/Cabo), times a multiple of somewhere around 4 and then adjusted for risk based on the stage of their development. The multiple is probably less controversial than the PAR estimates due to the evolving therapies in each indication (RCC being a great example). At this point in time, my mean valuation for EXEL is $3B. I would not be the least bit surprised to see the PPS gradually revert to this valuation. As additional indications become positively derisked (HCC, EGFRwt & RET+NSCLC, combi therapy PD1's, etc) that valuation goes obviously goes north.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Golden Parachutes

    by twodogsfracking Jul 31, 2015 10:37 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 31, 2015 12:45 PM Flag

    I'd be ok with an overnight 256% SP premium. That puts EXEL PPS at about $15.36. Wouldn't begrudge the mgmt. team for that move one iota.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer Jul 31, 2015 12:43 PM Flag

    Try EXEL's website, under "News". It's real. PDUFA date moved back 3 months. That is not what is moving the PPS today.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jul 30, 2015 11:52 AM Flag

    Here is a Q&A from Ohad Hammer's blog last week-
    Q-"Hi Ohad, Is EXEL a buy now @1B market cap? Thanks! Jinyu"
    A-"Yes I think it’s a buy following the RCC announcement and based on the clinical profile reported ( limited details but it looks quite effective on PFS and OS, which is rare in RCC and safety profile looks comparable to Afinitor, which is not the easiest drug but still acceptable) cabo should become a significant player with a $500-$800M sales potential.
    I am not that concerned about PD-1 competition because there will always be a need for additional treatment lines." Ohad Hammer

    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jul 27, 2015 3:11 PM Flag

    They say there are a few things in this life that are inevitable. Death and taxes are commonly referenced. After the strong RCC topline data, with Cobi approval coming on Nov. 11th, and with EXEL having resolved short term cash concerns, it would appear that an increasing valuation for this embattled bio is long overdue and somewhat...inevitable. The noise is still pretty loud from the peanut gallery, but nothing compared to the pounding of opportunity knocking....
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    About 200mm in cash after this raise

    by wildbiftek Jul 24, 2015 10:22 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 24, 2015 12:59 PM Flag

    In about a week or so we will get the exact amount of cash they finished with in Q2, so the math will be easy. The direction on partnerships will no doubt be mentioned as well. Is this a win win scenario for investors.

    If EXEL goes it alone, they are well positioned with Cobi revenues coming online in Q1'16 and MTC sales fully ramped up. The upside of not partnering on Cabo for exUS could be over a billion dollars in future revenues. Hard to argue with that decision.

    On the other hand, if EXEL decides to partner they can accelerate several key Phase 3 trials, potentially opening up new indications years earlier. For example, a positive Phase 3 in EGFRwt NSCLC could mean $300-500M annually if they capture 10% of the patients as predicted in some post ASCO tweets. Also hard to argue with.
    Lots to look forward to.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jul 22, 2015 7:47 PM Flag

    MDVN from Oct. 2011 thru Oct. 2012. The valuation went from $630M to $4.5B in one year. All on the prospects for Xtandi, a drug partnered with Astellas. At that time the expectation was that Xtandi would bring $1B in sales, which MDVN would receive 50%. So basically, they got a valuation of 9X revenue, all in advance of the actual revenues occurring (in 2012 revenues for MDVN were $182M). What I'm getting at is that if Cabo has a $500M oppty in RCC and a $50M oppty in MTC and Cobi has a $75M oppty in MetMelanoma....what is the right valuation for EXEL with $625M in future revenues? For MDVN it was $4.5B.
    For EXEL $4.5B equates to a $21 PPS. That's including the newly issued shares.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Will EXEL go up to 38 by next year?

    by bugbgon Jul 22, 2015 2:16 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 22, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    I only see 4 locations that were terminated of the original 106. Is that what you are referring too?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer Jul 22, 2015 2:16 PM Flag

    Hey cbdthchelp,

    Looks like you opened your short on Monday after the CC....how's that working out for you champ?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Opportunity Knocks

    by duckduffer Jul 21, 2015 5:07 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 22, 2015 1:36 PM Flag

    Son of a gunderson...that window of opportunity was small. While I grabbed a few shares last nite at $5.56 in the afterhours, I had no idea this would bounce back so strong, and really didn't pay attention early this am. Can't be unhappy, but sure would have liked to grab more shares at $5.50ish ....:) It's been a while since I've had to consider chasing the PPS in EXEL....not a bad thing at all.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Opportunity Knocks

    by duckduffer Jul 21, 2015 5:07 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 21, 2015 6:27 PM Flag

    "but no they were more worried about their options and end of year bonuses"
    How is it possible that company leadership, who's largest opportunity for wealth is through stock options, would not care about the health of the common shares?
    "They don't care about shareholders and or patients "
    You have now crossed the threshold into nonsensical ramblings. Patients? Really??
    Take a break from this MB and relax. GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jul 21, 2015 5:07 PM Flag

    If this offering has a meaningful negative impact on the PPS tomorrow, I will be backing up the truck for more shares. Talk about a compelling situation....Cabo with strong RCC data in the barn, no partners on the compound, Cobi approval in November, and the company flush with cash... what is not to like?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Can EXEL ever reach 100 ?

    by annasaaru Jul 21, 2015 2:09 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 21, 2015 2:48 PM Flag

    Never say never. Certainly not in the short term, but looking out a little ways, say 3+ years...It would require solid success in RCC, HCC, NSCLC, & MTC for Cabo, resulting in $1-2B in annual sales. Plus Cabo and/or Cobi becoming a combination drug of choice with checkpoint inhibitors....resulting in increased sales of another $1-2B.... and bingo you are there. Think about the profitability of the currently downsized EXEL with significant sales revenues, (assuming they don't "get the gang back together"), a bottom line profitability of over 50% isn't out of question. Take $2B in revenues x 50% equals $1B in earnings. Multiply that times a 15 multiple and you get a $15B market cap. That is a PPS of roughly $65 including the shares issued from the converts. Increase those revenues...etc, etc....Long shot perhaps....but not impossible. I have a dream...
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jul 21, 2015 1:29 PM Flag

    For those who follow the ORF blog by Ohad Hammer, here is his response to a question asked about his thoughts on the METEOR results-
    "(EXEL)- imo results look very good (didnt discose the median) , the survival trend is impressive! Just bought some in premarket, this is easily a 500M opportunity."
    In case you don't follow, Ohad is a very informed bio blogger who sold EXEL last fall after the Comet trials. Good to see he is back on board. Also good to see he recognizes the opportunity in RCC as $500M!
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Next Up...Cobi

    by duckduffer Jul 20, 2015 3:53 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 20, 2015 3:56 PM Flag

    I should have said "the early conversion price of the converts", meaning the PPS necessary to allow for an early conversion. The actual converts price is $5.31.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jul 20, 2015 3:53 PM Flag

    Catalyst numero uno has played out positively. Next up...Cobi approval early November.

    Time for some SWAG valuations? IMO METEOR deserves a valuation of $1.28B ($320M in annual revenue based upon capturing 50% of Afinitor's marketshare with a longer time on therapy of over 60%). MTC has a valuation worth $200M ($50M in annual revenue). And Cobi starts with a valuation of $320M ($75M annual revenue). Total proved valuation by early November- $1.8B. That is currently a $8.80 PPS. IMO the short term speed bump to the PPS is the conversion price of the converts, $6.90. But with a Cobi approval (seems almost inevitable) that should get blown out. Now what happens if we add on some risk adjusted valuation for EGFRwt NSCLC, Ret rearranged NSCLC, and HCC? Some big indications there. Another $500M? A PPS of $11-12?
    Future is looking bright for EXEL.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Convert strike price

    by erniewerner Jul 20, 2015 11:47 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 20, 2015 3:31 PM Flag

    EXEL can call the bonds after 8/16 if the last reported sale price of the Common Stock for 20 or more trading days in a period of 30 consecutive trading days ending on the trading day prior to the date the Issuer provides notice of redemption exceeds 130% of the conversion price in effect on each such trading day. In other words, once it gets to and stays above $6.90, EXEL can call the bonds or the holders can convert to common, all prior to 2019. Convert holders can convert at anytime prior to 2019 if the above scenario occurs.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer Jul 20, 2015 1:45 PM Flag

    There is no evidence yet to support the statement that Nivo is "the best drug". No data was released from the Checkmate PR, nor have Cabo's OS numbers fully matured. Also, keep in mind that Nivo is efficacious in 20% of the patients. Guess who is going to get their share of the 80% that don't respond? The other compound that has better efficacy than the rest of the 2nd/3rd line options. Cabo.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why would someone leave GILD to come to EXEL?

    by semanresu Jul 16, 2015 12:44 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 16, 2015 3:00 PM Flag

    "based on his strike price of $3.66 for 350k options and 100k of stock, I suspect he will be ahead by well over a million within a week."
    As a controller for GILD, without pulling the annual report, I'd guess he was pulling a fair amount of options already. And a decent salary. GILD has gone from $25 to $118 over the last 3 years. That is almost a 500% appreciation in PPS. If Mr. Senner participated in those gains through the employee stock option program he has experienced some pretty solid wealth enhancement. However, what are the chances a company like GILD, with a $175B market cap, is ever again going to show that type of growth?
    Long odds and certainly not as high as a company like EXEL, with a $755M market cap, on the verge of a couple of game changing successes. EXEL could easily triple from here just on a strong showing in RCC. Add in a strong sales and clinical performance from Cobi over the next year....a $3-4B valuation is within reach. That would mean 4-500% appreciation on those options. Mr. Senner might hit the lotto twice in his career.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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