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VirnetX Holding Corp Message Board

duckduffer 38 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 17, 2014 11:45 AM Member since: May 29, 2003
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  • duckduffer duckduffer Mar 12, 2014 8:52 PM Flag

    stockkarr- "The higher than normal volume is puzzling. Suggests a leak or a rumour"

    Including today's trading, which was higher than normal, the volume since the stock turned downward from $7.39 on Mar. 5th, has been 4,155,753 avg per day over 5 trading days. That is 131% of the 3 month average daily volume. While it is high...a leak or rumor might be expected to drive significantly greater volume. The last two days have definitely shown increased volume, but wouldn't a bear raid pick up momentum as key support levels are broken? Stop orders are triggered and selling begets selling. Everywhere you look momentum is driving the market. Anyone pay attention to PLUG over the last week?
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    BULLISH OPTIONS

    by herocaptainamerica Mar 11, 2014 9:40 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Mar 11, 2014 7:05 PM Flag

    Based on todays price action and the volume, I'd say this options trade was a hedge for shorts.

    "More than 5,400 April 8 calls were bought for $0.70 to $1 yesterday afternoon, according to optionMONSTER's Heat Seeker tracking system. Open interest in the strike was just 588 contracts before the session began, indicating that new positions were established."

    This looks more like someone wanted to really push the price down and needed a hedge in case news hit before covering. Just look at the huge volume around $6.40.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Shorts The Longs and the Truth

    by foutjo21 Mar 7, 2014 5:29 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Mar 7, 2014 5:53 PM Flag

    This was posted by RFMaverick on IV. This is the plain truth. It's not all sunshine, but it's not raining either.

    "Here are the possible outcomes based on the remedies sought by Apple that I recall from the briefs:

    1. Verdict Affirmed in Full
    2. Judgment affirmed in part, remanded for a new trial on others:
    Remanded on some or all of the following terms:
    -incorrect claims construction
    -not adequate evidence to support the jury verdict
    -incorrect jury instructions
    3. Judgement reversed
    -No evidence of infringement

    I cannot stress this enough, but the CAFC does not have the authority to either set a new royalty rate or a new royalty base. So the CAFC cannot say, $29 should have been used as the royalty base.

    #3 is next to impossible, so I am not going to waste time on that.

    As to #2, A. if the remand is because of damages issues, then the retrial will only cover damages and the CAFC will instruct the court what evidence from the original case can/cannot be admitted and/or what jury instructions from the original case can be provided. B. If the remand is because of claims construction issues, then we have a whole new trial with the correct claim construction being utilized. I highly doubt that B will be utilized because there was nothing compelling that I saw on this issue.

    As to #1, if judgment affirmed, then we have a rocket ship."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Mar 7, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    Keep in mind as you ride the EXEL rollercoaster that we are now and have been since the 20th of Feb in a time period for enabling conversion of the convertibles. The PPS must remain above $6.90 for 20 of the last 30 consecutive trading days of a quarter. I haven't been paying attention to how many we have traded above so far....but I'm sure it is playing into the volatility in some fashion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    13G filings 2/14/14

    by wilderguide Feb 14, 2014 11:23 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Feb 15, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    If one assumes that large funds like Fidelity, with almost $200M invested here, have more than a few highly qualified biotech analysts, it would definitely read as very encouraging that they are holding strong. Also one might assume that the recent offering was absorbed primarily by institutions (which wouldn't show up in these latest filings). That would mean fund ownership sits at 94% of shares outstanding. Could it be that EXEL has a promising outlook. :)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Another Look @ Future Valuation

    by duckduffer Feb 6, 2014 11:23 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Feb 6, 2014 12:43 PM Flag

    Sorry, I'll put it into terms you'll appreciate. EXEL could go up a whole lot if their drugs work good. :)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • With all the excitement around Xtandi's pre chemo opportunity, I thought it worthwhile to look at the valuation that is now being projected upon MDVN. As we all know, Xtandi is a partnership between MDVN and Astellas. Last week JP Morgan put a 2014 price per share target of $101 on MDVN which is roughly a $7.5B valuation. That is basically for 50% of Xtandi and what is projected by some to now be $3B in peak annual sales. The extrapolation then is that MDVN's share, $1.5B in peak annual sales, equates to a market valuation of $7.5B. That is 5 times peak annual sales. As discussed here previously, Cometriq was projected in a well researched SA article from Bay Area Biotech to reach $2.92B in peak annual sales assuming success in all the current Phase 3 trials plus NSCLC. That does not include sales from Cobimetinib, which is also in a Phase 3 trial with partner Roche. Remembering that Cometriq is not partnered and using the JP Morgan valuation for MDVN, the potential for EXEL valuation on Cometriq alone is $14.5B. Even with dilution related to conversion of the convertible bonds, that equates to a PPS of $62. That is a 9X return from here.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Waiting

    by ddaly8585 Feb 4, 2014 11:40 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Feb 5, 2014 2:08 PM Flag

    "it probably doesn't matter any way"....I would have to agree. The odds are something like 99.9 to 1 against insider ownership affecting the effects of the compounds. To take it a step further....who do you believe has more credibility, a CEO and senior team with huge ownership positions that have everything to lose if the drug isn't as good as advertised or a CEO and senior team that first and foremost are committed to patient outcomes....IMO insider ownership in biotech can be a bit conflicting. Certainly there are cases where the insiders believe more in their science and thus buy more stock. But how do you know which is which? I prefer the CEO and team give me the least amount of spin. In this space, insider ownership is the least compelling consideration for my investment.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Feb 5, 2014 10:54 AM Flag

    Getting mighty crowded in that underinformed and poorly educated 3rd world country these days. If only those sad souls could figure out the basics of message board posting malfeasance. Find a reasonable and somewhat believable topic of concern...then subtly and consistently pick at it. The lazy effort of throwing up a bunch of wacky rants distinguished by the abusive use of caps...not effective FUD dispersion.... for those non credible amateurs...we must push the button of banishment :) As always, I thank Yahoo for the Ignore button.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Convertible offering

    by oncodoc02138 Jan 3, 2014 9:30 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Feb 1, 2014 12:49 PM Flag

    "Is the 30 consecutive day requirement the 30 days before the end of the quarter, (starting feb 15 or so) or is just any 30 consecutive days within a given quarter"

    It's the 30 consecutive days prior to the end of the preceding quarter. So the condition has not been met.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer Jan 28, 2014 7:59 PM Flag

    David Miller posted "Perhaps pertinent to $EXEL COMET? Increase in bone disease while on abiraterone decreases survival."
    I believe we have a Phase 2 trial recruiting to remedy that exact concern for abiraterone. Wonder if this data will speed up recruiting :)
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jan 27, 2014 5:22 PM Flag

    During a period in which the PPS increased from $6.13 to $8.07, a more than 30% move up, the short interest rose by 2,138,735. Those who are expecting a short squeeze simply on momentum...not looking very likely. It appears the short interest is going the distance. The forecast...turbulence. Buckle up :)

    Settlement Date_____Short Interest_____Avg Daily Share Volume_____Days To Cover
    1/15/2014___________45,744,121__________3,766,619______________12.144611
    12/31/2013__________43,605,386__________1,288,973______________33.829557

    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buyback before the 29th.

    by wangyou26 Jan 27, 2014 10:54 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jan 27, 2014 11:40 AM Flag

    Whether EXEL closes above or below $6.90 today has no impact on the option to convert the convertible notes into common shares. Until Aug of 2016, this is the rule.
    "if the last reported sale price of our common stock for at least 20 trading days (whether or not consecutive) during the period of 30 consecutive trading days ending on the last trading day of the immediately preceding fiscal quarter".
    What that means is the important month is the month immediately preceding quarter end, in this quarter that's March. The other important months are June, Sept, and December.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jan 24, 2014 6:21 PM Flag

    SGY production over 50% nat gas. Bodes well for the future.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jan 24, 2014 4:21 PM Flag

    Today was a bad day for the market and a bad day for Biotech. The NBI, IBB, XBI all down 3.3-3.5%. EXEL actually fared pretty well in light of its high beta. Could have been down a lot more. As for the offering, it went off at $8, as planned. Those who post differently aren't paying attention. The underwriter gets a 5% discount, that equates to $7.60. That is the underwriters profit and is most of the cost of raising equity. Those who purchased from the underwriter paid $8. IMO the equity raising was far less influential in todays pps move than the overall market getting crushed.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jan 24, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    After yesterday it is crystal clear how bullish the market is on EXEL at this point. All the "sky is falling dilution is coming" chorus girls and boys have nothing to crow about any longer (as if reality will actually stop them). The market liked the cash raising.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jan 23, 2014 12:41 PM Flag

    Both up. SGY is heading north, sooner or later.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dilution Uncertainty Removed

    by twodogsfracking Jan 23, 2014 8:28 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jan 23, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    "The unkown of more dilution is now known"

    Great point. I've been looking at the calendar wondering how cash raising would play out this year. The assumption most would say was after Comet data was released. So while surprising at the timing, it's also not. EXEL can't know exactly how the Comet interim data will appear . But they do know Cometriq is a very active compound in some very big Phase 3 indications. And that Cobimetinib has a very high likelyhood of success. Why risk a cash crunch that sidetracks all this opportunity when you don't have to? Seems like a pretty astute move. Market apparently agrees.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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