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VirnetX Holding Corp Message Board

duckduffer 78 posts  |  Last Activity: May 27, 2016 7:43 PM Member since: May 29, 2003
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  • The BIB chart is again a relative mirror of EXEL today. Six months ago BIB was trading at $81, today's close $41. A 50% decline. Six months ago EXEL was trading at $5.91, today's close $4.04. A 32% decline. When questioning the current PPS, look at BIB and appreciate that EXEL has had nothing but good news in the last 6 months. Suggesting "the market" is discounting EXEL for lack of transparency on OS, manipulation by the CC holders, etc, is ignoring the facts. EXEL got sucked down with all the bio's and fortunately all the recent positive news has actually prevented more damage. Once EXEL exits the world of speculation on FDA approval (soon) and further with growing RCC and Cotellic revenues (cash flow), this correlation will be greatly reduced. EXEL will be judged on it's merits and not it's race (sector).
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Apr 25, 2016 6:49 PM Flag

    Finally.....Over the next several quarters the data won't be speculation on how good the drug works (better than expected across the board) but on how quickly it ramps up sales. While the "gamble" of biotech is quite exciting for the thrill seeker, the "financial fundamentals" will now kick in. It's hard not to like the potential in RCC with all the data in hand. This is the most derisked EXEL as an investment has ever been. The company is trading at just over $1B, with revenue potential estimates in RCC alone anywhere from $300M to $700M. It doesn't need to be said, but there is some serious runway left on the valuation here. The market has been very skeptical (think Adam F's article about OS) about Cabo's efficacy. Now the data is clear. Will the market continue to be skeptical...now about the financial fundamentals...will it wait to value the company based on financial results over time....or will astute investors, with data in hand, and the company derisked...get ahead of the curve....we shall see.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A Fool to beat all Fools

    by wilderguide Apr 7, 2016 12:54 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Apr 7, 2016 2:49 PM Flag

    Check the timing. The "contributor" for MF just happens to drop these ridiculous and poorly conceived articles on EXEL on days the stock is coming off solid up moves. On the 15th he dropped the comparison to BMY and then today's absurd lineup. There is clearly malice in his intentions. The articles are so absurd my guess is that no one really pays any attention excepting the few loyal fools remaining from days gone by.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer May 27, 2016 4:33 PM Flag

    $1B in PAR is still an optimistic speculation at this point. However....with the possibility of "blockbuster drug" status, $12 PPS is a somewhat risk adjusted valuation. A full valuation might be as much as 5X revenue, which at $5B is $21 PPS with the current shares outstanding.
    It will be an interesting year ahead.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Mar 21, 2016 1:20 PM Flag

    I'm going to say FDA approval press release in April. Why? The FDA granted cabozantinib Breakthrough Therapy designation (August 2015) and Fast Track designation (April 2015). The FDA granted Priority Review to the filing on January 28th and assigned a Prescription Drug User Fee Act action date of June 22, 2016. It is my very speculative opinion that the FDA would like to demonstrate their responsiveness to patients on the approval of Breakthrough drugs. April will be 8 months since the Breakthrough designation. I think that will be their target month. Opinions?
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Mar 28, 2016 1:05 PM Flag

    A few posters here aren't grasping what has been occurring, despite Snow's explanations and Thursdays short interest updates. There is a significant short interest methodically covering and it is being done quite effectively with programmed trading enabling it to occur with little upside impact to the PPS. The Ipsen deal was the trigger as not only does it shore up cash on hand, but is a huge endorsement with pending FDA RCC approval factoring as well. EXEL has been significantly derisked and those who had short hedges in place want to reduce their hedge ie cover damage free. This process is tough to watch and clearly has some posters crying for blood...but it's likely good for the coming valuation of this company. Even hedged short interest presents an overhang to the PPS. Some will make the case that short interest is future demand for the stock....but the shorts aren't always willing buyers.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Apr 29, 2016 1:25 PM Flag

    From the ORF-blog-
    Dan-"Hey Ohad! yes, EXEL data impressive. How does it change the valuation?"
    Ohad-"Well, apparently valuation hasn’t changed much…With such an impressive OS benefit, cabo could be a $1B drug and have a strong 1st year launch."
    Ville-"Ohad, Cabo a $1B drug only with 2nd/3rd line RCC and MTC? You are kidding, aren’t you?"
    Ohad-"Current global market for 2nd+ RCC is $1.2B and this is achieved with mediocre drugs (no OS benefit) with suboptimal market penetration and (3-4 months of therapy). I expect cabo and PD-1 to dramatically change that as cost per patient will grow 2-fold and number of treated patients will probably grow as well now that patients have real life prolonging options."

    Ohad, in case you don't follow the blog, was one of the few who only gave the Comet trials a 30% chance of success. Insight from a very credible source. I doubt he is too far off on the potential. Time will tell.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Mar 2, 2016 4:15 PM Flag

    Someone spent a bundle painting the tape today, just watching the last few minutes was quitea battle. The good news, despite the aggressive selling (shorting?) there was a buyer on the other side keeping it positive for the day. The volume is telling us something and one way of looking at it is there are short positions holding millions of shares who don't want EXEL to get any serious trading momentum. I wouldn't suggest this except for the 2X average volume. There is a smaller probability that someone/s had decided they would exit their position on news of a JV, but IMO, at this PPS, that hardly makes sense.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Mar 10, 2016 1:48 PM Flag

    I added again today, despite feeling much like the Scion Capital guy (Michael Burry) in the movie, where he's loaded up on credit default swaps and his fund investors think he's lost his mind....:) Worked out pretty good for him in the end.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Ipsen deal

    by erniewerner Mar 1, 2016 2:49 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Mar 1, 2016 3:18 PM Flag

    Bif,
    I was thinking the same thing. Cabo will be a lead compound for Ipsen. Even if their sales force is smaller than big pharma, their portfolio is smaller as well. The terms of the deal are very solid and this partner will be all in. This much PPS manipulation isn't surprising, we've seen it over and over again. Despite the great deal, questions still remain. Sales revenues for both Cabo and Cotellic are still speculative with a substantial range of opinions, there is nothing certain thus enabling the usual FUD created by volatility. Having said that, my level of comfort with this investment went up considerably with this latest event.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Hmmm....wonder if next Tuesday at Cowen anyone dare ask MMM why the PPS is being played like a fiddle... "Uhh Mike, quick question, is the valuation of the company supposed to stay flat after said company lands a partnership deal potentially worth over $800M with $260M in cash upfront?...how would you explain this to the potential investors in the room?"
    Que crickets...chirp chirp
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Mar 9, 2016 3:10 PM Flag

    With OS in hand now is there any reason the FDA wouldn't move on this approval asap? Significantly improved PFS than other TKI's, OS benefit, and with Nivo only working on 21.5% of patients, seems the other 78.5% of the second line patient population deserves approval much sooner than June.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Exel's stock price in a few years

    by najarian_t Apr 26, 2016 1:26 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Apr 26, 2016 2:29 PM Flag

    One thing about EXEL, they haven't demonstrated any ability to "SPIN" the facts over the years.....hasn't always been great for the valuation, but it does mean they are highly credible. They were very accurate in their projections for MTC sales, and its small patient population. Thus, when they project the eligible patient population for Cabo in the US alone as 17,000, the data is likely very well researched. The implications of this with the outstanding data presented in RCC...EXEL is likely to see revenue's for RCC in the upper range of the 700M annual sales in the next couple of years. Forget about HCC for a moment...$700M RCC, $40M MTC, and even a paltry $40M (half the early projections) in Cotellic= $780M annual sales...
    My back of the napkin math is that expense (SG&A, Development, Interest, Sales COG's) will be roughly $330M on those sales. Annual earnings of $480M....or $1.50 per share fully diluted. A growing business multiple of 20X equals $30 per share.
    I'd be happy with that. And I'm prepared to hold until then.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Down on good news, up on no news...

    by wilderguide Mar 4, 2016 12:20 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Mar 4, 2016 3:02 PM Flag

    "the market wants to see cash flow from drug sales, not the promise of cash flow"....that is a very rational thought process...but is that typically how biotech's (or any high growth business) behave? When MDVN was filing and waiting for approval in CRPC, after AFFIRM being stopped in Nov. 2011 to approval in Aug. 2012, the PPS for MDVN increased from $8.80 to $50....all before any cash flow from Xtandi approval was being generated. A $4 billion dollar valuation prior to FDA approval. Today they have a $6.7B valuation (down from $8B prior to the bio selloff) on $940M in revenue. That's 7X revenue.
    You really shouldn't use rational thought process for biotechs. Even one as banged up as EXEL.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Can Ipsen buy out the rest of EXEL?

    by enabeler Mar 8, 2016 9:27 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Mar 8, 2016 12:44 PM Flag

    "Don't you think they saw or were told the OS numbers as part of the negotiations?"
    Without a doubt. OS is an integral component of the sales viability. Those who are still questioning the PPS, should keep reminding themselves that Ipsen made a huge investment, a massive endorsement. The PPS is being played, if you are a retail trader....good luck. If you are long, stop stressing the daily BS.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    RCC Approval SWAG

    by duckduffer Mar 21, 2016 1:20 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Mar 21, 2016 3:14 PM Flag

    "Let's hope so..We are struggling lately with the pressure and the internal ongoing within EXEL witch we have no clue of what's going on .."
    I'm of the opinion it is primarily sector related, ie following the BIB etc. However, the conspiracy theorist ie cynic in me would suggest the following. There is a large number of short shares and convertible bond holders who may want to keep the PPS in check leading up to approval, knowing that approval could mean a significant PPS pop. The lower the PPS, the less damage the approval pop will have. That is my paranoid long take on the matter. IMO, the valuation should adjust to somewhere around $2B after the approval has time to settle. Anyway you slice the revenue pie, EXEL will be on track for a minimum of $400M annual revenue in RCC/MTC/Cotellic (with the upside being as much as $750M in those buckets).
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    i am unaware of what mf said

    by alsodoglover Mar 15, 2016 6:24 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Mar 15, 2016 9:04 PM Flag

    The article was junk. Every compliment was back handed and comparing the two companies ridiculous. An example of the slant was the comment relating that Nivo had RCC approval before EXEL even filed...ignores the fact that Nivo was a supplemental and Cabo was an full NDA due to the tablet vs capsule change. Doesn't mention that Nivo doesn't work in 78.5% of the patients, or that Cabo has stat sig OS (how do you leave that out at this point?) that is likely comparable to Nivo. It was perhaps a hit piece, but I'm leaning more towards ignorant. Here is a line from the article that demonstrates the point-" Exelixis also has a profit-and-loss sharing collaboration agreement with Roche for another drug named Cotellic, but so far it's produced nothing but losses". Is that helpful to an investor? How about writing something more like, "If you want a dividend and maybe a 10-15% upside...BMY...if you are looking for a bit more upside on a speculative biotech that has been derisked substantially in the last 6 months, especially at the current PPS range....EXEL."
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Cabo failed phase II

    by hum14jbird Mar 22, 2016 9:07 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Mar 22, 2016 12:43 PM Flag

    "Isn't it a bit arbitrary to only consider news relevant only if it can be interpreted positively? What would your comment have been had the HR been .5 instead of 2?"
    If you consider the comment was in the context of where is the company going, then no, not arbitrary. The results of small Phase 2 trials, great or not good, that aren't focused towards immunotherapy combination, are interesting, but clearly not driving the strategy.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer May 6, 2016 11:19 AM Flag

    If you ever feel like the markets are worse than a LV casino from a manipulation perspective, listen to or read the transcript of Steve Wynn's earnings call. One sample-
    "So the stock market has got more volatile, more stupid as a gambling game than ever before. And I look at it that way to be honest with you. I have very little respect for the integrity of the trading on the exchange in most stocks. And I have particular disdain for the fact that the SEC has failed to deal with high-frequency traders who are doing nothing more than taking advantage of inside information, a buy or a sell order, because of technology advantages."
    He goes off on the topic and essentially describes Nevada Gaming as having more control over illegal activities than the SEC. Its at the end of the call.Good stuff.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    In case you missed it....

    by duckduffer Mar 28, 2016 1:05 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Mar 28, 2016 4:31 PM Flag

    Shorting a stock skips the normal step of having a true seller wishing to exit a position. An artificial seller can manipulate the perceived direction of a stock, deceiving other programmed trading algorithms into selling. A game of financial chess, with the most advanced "slealth" trading achieving what appears to be market driven supply and demand. When the algo says "OK, now we can cover, the necessary downward momentum and PPS has been achieved", the artificial seller covers in excess of the original artificial sale. A slow process, but obviously working. Short interest down over 11% in one 15 day period with upward no impact to the PPS.
    Perhaps there are other explanations for the PPS not reacting to all recent positive developments and decline in short interest, but this seems quite plausible to me. A large holder liquidating their position? At this price? Or perhaps it's just lack of confidence in MM and the BOD...as has been postulated quite frequently here....we shall see.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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