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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

duckduffer 75 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 2, 2014 12:41 PM Member since: May 29, 2003
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  • Reply to

    CoBrim, NDA Guidance

    by ddaly8585 Jul 2, 2014 12:28 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 2, 2014 12:41 PM Flag

    Yes, nothing has changed. Roche guided for 2014.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    One nasty black candle this morning

    by milkman92714 Jun 23, 2014 10:53 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jun 24, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    Wilder,
    Consider if you will that as recently as Jan. 23rd the PPS closed over $8....and that the decline since was due to a combination of biotech selloff and Comet 1 interim analysis bear raid. If any of the coming key data points (Exam OS, Comet 1, or CoBrim) come out positive first, it would make sense that we would quickly revisit that $8 PPS. My SWAG is that with more than one positive event, we move to a $2.5B valuation rather quickly ($12.50 PPS) and with all 3 positive a 2014 end of year $4B valuation ($20 PPS) is in play. If you don't believe that scenario just look at the valuation of MDVN or the buyout of Algeta after positive Phase 3 data for CRPC...and with compounds that were 50% partnered (Enzalutamide and Alpharadin). The best news is that all the data leading up to now would suggest that scenario appears more likely than not. Anyone selling at current levels has to seriously need the cash. These catalysts could literally happen any day.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jun 19, 2014 3:53 PM Flag

    Why is it that almost every pundit from Seeking Alpha fails to provide a fully comprehensive and accurate look at EXEL? Wouldn't you ask about Cobi or RCC/HCC if you were interviewing a real analyst re EXEL? ..(yes, that was a rhetorical question). Should we even hold a "her" named "He" up to a normal standard? Is this just a "He" said she said...situation.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Options action has been great in EXEL

    by twosidedtape1 Jun 16, 2014 4:25 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jun 16, 2014 7:30 PM Flag

    Roche could report out CoBRIM topline at any time.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jun 9, 2014 9:13 PM Flag

    Based on some of the posts regarding this topic, it might be interesting to see what numbers some of you biotech investors would project. According to the Ohad Hammer blog Cobi alone would be valued conservatively based on peak annual revenue of $150M. He projects that as EXEL's share based on their agreement with Roche, intense competition and minimal growth. I see that as very conservative and believe peak revenues to EXEL could eventually exceed $250M+. Metastatic melanoma diagnosis is growing roughly 5% per year. Of those diagnosed, 50% have BRAF mutations and 90% of those are BRAF V600. This is a major indication. Cobi will likely find it's way into additional treatments, as it is currently the subject of several other clinical trials. If the only thing EXEL had going for it was Cobi, EXEL should still have a billion dollar valuation (many of the recent buyouts like Bayers takeout of Algeta have been 4- 6X estimated peak annual revenue.) But that isn't the only compound EXEL has going for it......
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jun 9, 2014 1:13 PM Flag

    The short interest for IDIX on the last reporting period was just under 20 Million. They woke up this morning to see their positions crushed. With positive Comet 1 and /or positive coBrim readouts that could easily happen here as well. I wonder how many of the shorts currently betting against EXEL also had a position in IDIX? There might be some shorts covering their positions today as the result of margin calls.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jun 6, 2014 6:52 PM Flag

    Although IMO Cabo is a long term winner in the oncology landscape (RCC,HCC, NSSLC, etc), the short term catalysts are the immediate gratification that the "street" needs to propel EXEL's valuation and make longs happy (think Pharrell Williams). Along those lines, it's good to be reminded of why Cabo may be a short term winner despite the crowded space that is mCRPC treatments. As discussed recently from an Ernie Werner post on the Motley Fool, it's Cabo's target patient in the Comet trials that is the key. Late line therapy, after everything else has stopped working. Here's another old post from Ernie that I just had to bump up.

    "The thing I like about Cabo is that there will always be end stage patients. Other drugs, (like Provenge and eventually abi) may get squeezed out of their indications by competition, but a drug that provides pain relief with a simple pill and hopefully improves OS when all the other treatment options are exhausted will have a secure niche market."

    Have a great weekend.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ew

    by dropdeadshortie May 30, 2014 1:04 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer May 30, 2014 6:09 PM Flag

    Great post Wilder. I was about to comment on the same point after reading Ernie's post on MF. Why is it that every pundit commenting on EXEL fails to discern this critical difference in the line of treatment for Cabo? These are patients who have run out of treatment options. The fact is the bar is higher and lower at the same time. Higher in that this is a difficult group to treat (they have stopped responding to other treatments), but lower in that the treatment efficacy isn't expected to be as robust as those earlier in the treatment regime. A modest survival benefit will be approved and that is what this trial is designed to achieve. Ernie's comments are worth copying here again.

    "this sort of ignores the reality that Cabo's first PC indication will be in fully refractory patients. Irrespective of how many courses of approved treatment exist, most metastatic PC patients reach the end of the available approved treatment regimens and this is the potential first market for Cabo."

    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Cabo dose adjusting to optimize response

    by wilderguide May 24, 2014 11:35 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer May 25, 2014 12:59 PM Flag

    To quote Judge Smails "I didn't want to do it, felt I owed it to him"....bingo...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    OT: Bait and Switch revenge

    by wilderguide May 25, 2014 12:27 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer May 25, 2014 12:57 PM Flag

    Wilder,
    "Should I hang this guy or what?"
    It's simple Darwinism. Anyone dense enough to continue this BS, is begging for a lesson in life.
    JMO

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Game Changer

    by duckduffer May 20, 2014 7:39 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer May 21, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

    Per Michael Morrisey-
    "So, again Roche is guiding to have coBrim data, again, that's the name of the pivotal trial and file in the second half of 2014. We’re very excited about that and looking forward to having that data be part of the overall data profile that we'll have out in 2014."
    Did he just say..."file in the second half of 2014". Yep. Huge.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer May 20, 2014 7:39 PM Flag

    What many who post here don't realize, is how big a game changer Cobi truly is for the here and now. Just for a moment, forget about all the catalysts coming in 2015 and beyond. This post is about 2014. When EXEL failed to get an SPA for the 306 trial way back in Oct. 2011, the bear raid began and short interest went thru the roof. In the following weeks the PPS went from $7.60 down to $3.95....based solely on EXEL's inability to get agreement from the FDA on a trial protocol that would assure approval based upon pain palliation. From that point forward short interest has been highly elevated and the bear case has been the prevailing story in regards to the PPS.
    However, the big problem for the bear case, that seemingly continues to go unnoticed is Cobi and the coBrim trial. Why? Perhaps it's because this compound wasn't even on the radar when the Cabo SPA was being discussed. So for whatever reason, now, it's as if it doesn't exist. Just a figment of our imagination. Nothing for a short or bear to be concerned with. Just misguided talking points for delusional long pumpers.
    But for those who are paying attention...Cobi and CoBrim is a game changer. It's the hedge that didn't exist in 2011. In 2011 EXEL was Cabo in CRPC. In 2014 it's Cabo in CRPC and Cobimetinib. The game has changed and the bears don't see it yet. But they will.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Yep, the 13F filings are in and surprise, surprise, institutional ownership in EXEL declined....by only 5.2M shares. A pittance when you consider that Capital Research single handedly should have accounted for a 22M share decline when they exited their position. So to answer the question posted months ago after the bear raid induced slide following the interim analysis of Comet 1 PR...."with 50M shares being traded who is selling and who is buying"....appears to be institutions doing a bunch of both. 42M shares were sold by tutes and 37M shares were added by tutes. So despite the "sky is falling" antics of bearish posters here, large institutions still see EXEL as a favorable bet. 84% of the available shares are owned by those institutions. That is a very bullish number heading into some very big catalysts in the second half of this year. Place your bets.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer May 15, 2014 8:08 PM Flag

    Just for clarity this is what Fly on the Wall posted-
    ASCO abstracts 'surprisingly bland,' says Piper Jaffray
    Piper Jaffray calls the ASCO abstracts released last night as "surprisingly bland," saying it does not find much "surprising or even interesting." Piper now believes the cancer field isn't progressing as quickly as it previously thought. The firm says Incyte (INCY) abstracts were "anticlimactic."

    Nothing specifically related to EXEL, just a general statement.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Death, Taxes, and

    by ddaly8585 May 13, 2014 11:49 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer May 13, 2014 3:43 PM Flag

    I forgot to add that Capital Research could also have sold with every intention of buying back after 30 days. In light of the timing of the interim analysis, it may have been the perfect oppty to offset a huge gain and still buy back in well before topline data from both CoBrim and Comet have been published. If so, then the fact that there has been a lid on the PPS in the $3.50's makes a lot more sense. It's being accumulated and weaker hands like Carrickter are getting worked out of their holdings.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Death, Taxes, and

    by ddaly8585 May 13, 2014 11:49 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer May 13, 2014 3:35 PM Flag

    The tutes final reporting for the first quarter should be very revealing (Friday). The biggest exit was Capital Research (which hasn't been pulled out of that 92% number yet), but if you look at the timing of their departure it may make some sense. In the same period they sold out of a billion dollar position in ENDP. If they had held that position since October or earlier, they netted over 140% return ie about $660M. Assuming they sold all their EXEL position after/during the slide from the interim analysis, and assuming their basis around $4.50 (long time holder probably even better) then the most they lost was $22M. Basically the offset to the huge gain means exiting their EXEL position was minimal damage. So considering that, you could extrapolate that their sale of EXEL wasn't necessarily a "get out at all costs" move. It was based on timing of the quarter and how they manage their earnings. Heck, they may have even had some short hedges that were in the black as well.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    BofA Merrilyn conference

    by fnbldp May 12, 2014 5:43 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer May 12, 2014 7:46 PM Flag

    Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2014 Health Care Conference, Las Vegas.....spreading the good word regarding investing in IP like Cabozantinib and Cobimetinib

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer May 11, 2014 9:05 PM Flag

    Carrickter,
    Sarcasm is a gift :) And just to be consistent with the theme....you're very welcome.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer May 11, 2014 1:35 PM Flag

    Read it again. It says "will be terminated"...in 6 months or when a replacement is found, whichever happens first. Not even similar to the situation with Karbe. But thanks for the extensive research.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    hbomb57108

    by valleyofloire May 8, 2014 4:28 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer May 9, 2014 6:26 PM Flag

    Just as an ....ah ha...this is exactly why GSK gave Foretinib back to EXEL. GSK is exiting the whole oncology biz. Period. End of story. Now maybe the username guy can give it a rest.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

EXEL
3.325+0.075(+2.31%)Jul 11 4:00 PMEDT

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