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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

duckduffer 58 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 21, 2014 6:25 PM Member since: May 29, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Comparing anti-angiogenics in Prostate Cancer

    by wilderguide Apr 19, 2014 1:05 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Apr 21, 2014 6:25 PM Flag

    For whatever reason, reading this from UKMi helps me disregard the current valulation-
    CoBRIM
    Generic Name: cobimetinib + vemurafenib
    In England, in 2011, there were 11,121 new cases of malignant melanoma (representing 17.3 cases per 100,000 population). ~ 50% of melanomas harbour activating BRAF mutations and 90% of these are BRAFV600 mutations
    Feb 14: Filing still planned for 2014.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Comparing anti-angiogenics in Prostate Cancer

    by wilderguide Apr 19, 2014 1:05 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Apr 20, 2014 7:58 PM Flag

    Nice find Wilder. That the Avastin CRPC trials took place well before Comet was launched is an important fact. The trial data presented in this article was obviously vetted thoroughly prior to pulling the trigger on spending hundreds of millions on Comets 1 and 2. While many will look to those Avastin trials as evidence that Cabo is a long shot in CRPC, I look at it as evidence that key opinion leaders and EXEL leadership knew the history of anti angiogenesis in prostrate cancer yet still had the confidence to move the Comet trials to the front of the line. Despite strong activity by Cabo in many other indications. Thanks for the read.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Summer Street concerns

    by wilderguide Apr 16, 2014 10:31 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Apr 17, 2014 11:45 AM Flag

    "I'm not short"....perhaps you should be. The list of negative posts from you is lengthy. If you were invested long here as you claim, with all your concerns about leadership, side effects, data manipulation, etc...it would be difficult to comprehend. I went back and couldn't find a single post that sounded like you were an owner of this security. And the caring and decent person thing....in a recent post you called a real contributor on this board, Wilderguide, "stupid as they come". Ya, you're a real sweetheart. Credentialing is what they call it in marketing. Providing some evidence you aren't full of BS. You haven't done much of that.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bought 10000 more...what a gift

    by jhsudds Apr 15, 2014 2:03 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Apr 15, 2014 8:29 PM Flag

    Well said...what a gift indeed. Omar Hammer's ORF blog is an excellent resource. And much like Ernie, Omar blogged early this year he anticipated the Comet 1 interim analysis would not stop the trial early. Assuming Omar's "low hanging fruit" is all EXEL obtains (MTC, RET+ lung Cancer, Cobi) that is still valuation upside from these levels. If you bought today....and held until the Cobi & NSCLC readouts...regardless of Comet 1....looks like a pretty solid bet. But that is really only talking about the "downside risk". The upside is parabolic (Comet 1 & 2, RCC, HCC, NSCLC, MTC, Cobi, etc). Every single one of those....still in play.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    the last time this stock washed out

    by blammo624 Apr 15, 2014 3:31 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Apr 15, 2014 8:04 PM Flag

    ...looking a little further back...the last time EXEL touched $3.02, six months later it closed over $11....will history repeat itself?
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Capital Research Advisors

    by ddaly8585 Apr 10, 2014 6:02 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Apr 14, 2014 3:10 PM Flag

    I'm not an expert on the science either, but for you to say " I am guessing that 1 is going to show very limited success. However, not nearly enough to make Cabo a first tier treatment" is 1) saying that based on the interim not halting, you believe the OS benefit won't be clinically meaningful and 2) you may believe that EXEL was shooting for a earlier place in the treatment cycle. Your position on 1 is pure guesswork with nothing to go on except the lack of an early halt to Comet 1, which may mean nothing at all. See the Jevtana phase 3 for evidence of that. Your position on 2 is not in line with Comet 1's target patient profile, a patient who has already received the "Tier 1" treatments which have stopped working. Remember there is no cure for prostate cancer, only treatment to prolong life. If Cabo shows an OS benefit similar to Jevtana tested on a group of extremely sick patients, Cabo will have a place in the treatment cycle. If you want a well written overview of EXEL's prospects today, read Ohad Hammers blog ORF. By his math, fair value right now is over $5 per share. That calculation does not provide any value for Comet success.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Capital Research Advisors

    by ddaly8585 Apr 10, 2014 6:02 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Apr 12, 2014 6:32 PM Flag

    Carrickter,
    You wrote "If prostrate fails this stock goes nowhere for a long while." So in your opinion, the prospects for Cobimetinib are bleak? We could get a read for that trial anytime, but definitely in 2014. Somehow every bear posting lately seems to ignore Cobi. Do you think with positive Cobi news we don't get a substantial move up? What happens if both Comet and Cobi are positive? Is the risk reward here worthwhile in that situation? Or do you really think the PPS lingers in the 4's in that event?
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Capital Research Advisors

    by ddaly8585 Apr 10, 2014 6:02 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Apr 11, 2014 3:16 PM Flag

    carrickter2002,
    In regards to your ongoing concerns about the volume of share turnover. Almost a full quarter of the volume traded on the four trading sessions including and preceding 3/31 could be attributed to CRA. Then there is a resulting substantial volume by programmed trading from funds that use quants due simply to the price drop. Then you have others like yourself so in panic from the volume and price drop (re your numerous posts on 3/28) who sell positions. All the while the market itself is pounding biotech and NASDAQ, with sector selling having an impact as well. My suggestion is to look at your position at this level and ask yourself, if I was buying EXEL where would I want to buy it. Right here perhaps? Your posts continually extrapolate negative outcomes of every possible type. The biggest one is the survival of the company should CRPC not meet trial endpoints. RCC and HCC are big indications. GDC 0973/Cobeminitib is a substantial opportunity and is as close to a foregone conclusion as you can have in biotech. EXEL will be able to leverage those opportunities for equity raising when the need presents itself. Remember, if one institution sells, there is another one buying. That is the answer to who absorbed all those shares from CRA. It wasn't retail, that much we can all agree on. Do you really believe vested institutions would sit around and not support EXEL raising equity when they have millions invested already? Trust me when I say this, there were institutions who were thrilled to be able to pickup millions of shares of EXEL at these levels. They didn't raise a finger to support the price, because they know the price will come back eventually with all the catalysts ahead. Those institutions were opportunists in buying shares on sale. Take a deep breath and realize the EXEL story isn't the nightmare you keep imagining. It's not always fun riding the roller coaster, but quitting the ride in the middle is usually a bad decision.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Capital Research Advisors

    by ddaly8585 Apr 10, 2014 6:02 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Apr 11, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    Wilder,
    Just want to throw a thought on top of this statement you wrote earlier in this thread- "Given the volumes during the recent sell-off, I'd say we can expect to see more...just my read." . Capital Resource Mgmt held over 10% of EXEL. As such they were in a class that was required to report their change in ownership within 10 days after the end of a designated month according to the provisions of Rule 13d-1(b)(2). I read this to mean that we can be relatively confident that any of the other holders over 10% (FMR, Wellington, possibly T Rowe Price) did not have similar changes in ownership, as they would have been required to report within the same time frame. We'll obviously know the full picture in 35 days when IH are reported, but perhaps CRM was the underlying reason for the move so far to the downside in light of relatively modest news. When a holder of 22.5M shares wants to exit, there will be collateral damage. I also expect some of the smaller players to have followed suit. Selling begets selling and not until the selling stops, will trading here resume based on fundamental outlook, not momentum. I've added a bit here, perhaps I'm just a sucker for a sale.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer Apr 8, 2014 7:19 PM Flag

    When somebody make a blanket statement with no supporting data or logic except "I see", it's time to put them on ignore. Adios Senor
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Next news

    by erniewerner Mar 27, 2014 4:19 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Mar 29, 2014 12:53 PM Flag

    This post needed a bump. In particular, the following paragraph-

    "Roche can report out CoBrim topline at any time. There is little doubt but that the combination will successfully reach the primary endpoint at the first interim. That would be a nice shot in the arm for EXEL"

    Indeed it would. That bus is being driven by Roche and Roche has been down this road many times. Expect success. What is a successful coBrim trial worth to EXEL in market cap? My WAG has been 800M in market cap. That's 150M more than were we are right now. Seem like this might be a good time to load up? Even if you believe all the bears gloom and doom about Comet 1. Once the positive coBrim data is out, the market will put a bottom on EXEL that is much higher than where we are now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    STRONG BUY!

    by bestchemistrytutor Mar 28, 2014 10:49 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Mar 28, 2014 4:05 PM Flag

    I realize this is pretty spooky, lot of selling going on. Important to keep in mind that the Comet 1 trial is for late stage patients. This is a salvage population. It's a different population that what previous trials in this indication have taken on. All this comparison to first line treatments (Xtandi and Zytiga) is irrelevant. We don't need Cabo to be a first line treatment for this company to do quite well. And comparing our "interim analysis" with others is not apples for apples. At this point, the story for me as a long, hasn't changed at all. The PPS isn't reflecting that, but until we have final results, the PPS is at the whim of speculation which also means manipulation. Is this a risky stock? Always has been. But the story isn't different for me now than it was a week ago. As with many others, I wasn't expecting a positive interim analysis. Everyone has their own tolerance for risk, but if you liked this stock at higher prices, you should love it here.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    STRONG BUY!

    by bestchemistrytutor Mar 28, 2014 10:49 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Mar 28, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    " IF this drug fails"....do you mean if this TRIAL fails? This drug (Cabo) is already approved in one indication and has shown efficacy in at least 9 others. It has Phase 3 trials in two other indications (HCC & RCC) besides the one everyone is worried about. There is also EXEL's compound Cobimetineb partnered with Roche in the Phase 3 CoBrim trial that will provide significant income if approved, believed to be highly likely. So the "puff of smoke" theory is pretty far fetched. But then again, you're long so why am I telling you this.....
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Cory Asimov quoted on Comet 1

    by wilderguide Mar 26, 2014 12:56 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Mar 27, 2014 12:02 PM Flag

    Relating to Alpharadin as a follow up therapy, remember that it has no effect on soft tissue disease. It's treatment benefit is on bone mets. Probably not going to be much help in this population if the soft tissue disease is progressing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hey Longs...watch out for the margin Calls

    by gabrjelac Mar 26, 2014 4:42 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Mar 26, 2014 6:16 PM Flag

    Wilder,
    Bewildering is a good word for it. In the past few years any EXEL bump in the road is usually with high volume. But today's volume was unusual even in those terms. If this was a complete surprise, I get it. But in light of the facts i.e. most OS trials don't halt on the interim, it certainly do make one wonder. Would a bear raid, orchestrated in the wee hours of this morning, by short hedgies, create this much volume? Here is the crazy thing....of today's drop, 36% of the move was in the first 12 minutes of trading on roughly 8M shares. That could be considered a bear raid. The problem is that for the rest of the day, another 46M shares would trade. And the price only moved another 3% down. If I told you that various parties had decided they wanted to sell 46M shares of EXEL, after the stock had already declined 36%+, you would probably anticipate the price would continue to free fall. Yet, from the opening 12 minutes on we saw only a moderate decline. So what could make that happen? Who stepped in to buy up all those shares? And who are these sellers? That volume is way above the retail float. Hmmm..What about large institutional holders that are hedged with short positions? Is it likely that even a single institution was unaware the odds favored a trial continuation at the interim? How likely, with millions on the line? Or is it more likely large institutions realized the odds of success are much higher in the Comet 1 final readout, in Comet 2, in RCC, in HCC. So if....you need to cover a big old hedge...wouldn't now be the very best time? Couldn't you be both the buyer and seller and not move the needle on the PPS. I wonder if once the price hit the skids this am, thanks to those pesky bears, was opportunity knocking for the prepared institutional trader..... we'll see.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hey Longs...watch out for the margin Calls

    by gabrjelac Mar 26, 2014 4:42 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Mar 26, 2014 4:49 PM Flag

    Schwab requires a 100% margin maintenance requirement for EXEL. Don't know about other brokers, but this would suggest that margin calls will not be a huge factor affecting the PPS in the near term.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Cory Asimov quoted on Comet 1

    by wilderguide Mar 26, 2014 12:56 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Mar 26, 2014 3:35 PM Flag

    To further that thought from Ernie, this statement-
    "We think it likely that the prednisone arm is performing better than expected (e.g. patients could have progressed more quickly on pred alone and gone on to additional treatments/trials), which could have a significant effect on trial statistics."
    is a questionable statement at best. As Ernie pointed out, what other treatments are there for this group of patients? They've already had docetaxel and either Zytiga or Xtandi. These people who have run the gamut of treatment options.
    And just for kicks, here is a portion of an Ernie post regarding Jevtana which may provide some comfort to those in pain today :)

    "I looked up the Jevtana trial result in its pivotal pos-chemo trial. It enrolled 755 patients and had a single interim analysis scheduled. It had to continue to the final analysis and the ultimate HR was .70. It looks to me as if that HR needed to pass a single interim is going to fall right near that .70 inflection point, very close to that 2.5 month OS advantage Hbomb is looking for."

    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Mar 26, 2014 12:57 PM Flag

    was an early halt due to a very positive interim analysis. However, we are far from the worst case which would read like this-
    "the study was halted due to patient safety signals".
    I doubt anyone was as concerned about safety with the dosing of this trial (even though in the big picture that would have been a death blow). Apparently the only concern from the street today is that the trial wasn't halted early for unexpectedly high efficacy on what is a group of late stage cancer patients.
    Cabo has shown multiple benefits to patients that should result in some OS benefit. Bone healing, pain reduction, reduction in CTC's, soft tissue disease efficacy, etc. All of those effects likely mean quality of life benefits as well as OS. So even if the final analysis isn't a home run for OS, don't forget, we may only need a single for this drug to be a commercial winner in late stage CRPC ( I figured the baseball analogy much easier to chew than the p value/HR discussion). If QOL is important in a physicians treatment paradigm, then utilizing a late stage drug that has a moderate effect on OS, but a meaningful effect on QOL, means Cabo has commercial success.
    Final thought. With safety signals not being mentioned, this interim analysis continues to suggest we have dosing levels in which the AE profiles won't negatively impact our other big Cabo trials in HCC and RCC.
    Bad day for the PPS. Could have been much worse.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Morrissey

    by philalethes18 Mar 20, 2014 5:45 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Mar 21, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    "We are about to see if he's a visionary or just another deluded smuck who drives a half billion dollars over a cliff flogging a biotech dream"
    I would only add to this well phrased statement that this is exactly where the respected BOD (including Dr. Scangos) has provided significant direction to Morrissey. There is no way the board wasn't integral in guiding decisions (like not partnering at critical points) so meaningful to EXEL's success.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Morrissey

    by philalethes18 Mar 20, 2014 5:45 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Mar 20, 2014 6:12 PM Flag

    The most legitimate claim those who question Morrissey have was the overcommit/underdeliver on getting an SPA for the Comet trials. Not getting the SPA garnered a strong negative reaction from the street as it was seen as a sure thing based upon Morrissey's communications. The second biggest concern of those who question Morrissey is the poor execution of the equity raising prior to MTC approval. While many agreed with the timing, as approvals are never a sure thing, the poor execution cost the company anywhere from 35-70M in cash raised as the market hammered the PPS leading up to the pricing. It was a learning experience for Morrissey and team at best.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

EXEL
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