Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

duckduffer 65 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 23, 2016 11:49 AM Member since: May 29, 2003
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    A new catalyst!

    by enabeler Jun 23, 2016 9:57 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jun 23, 2016 11:49 AM Flag

    It's fun to look at that list as it's quite possible that all of the above is the box to check.
    Euro approval- very soon
    Japanese partner- will happen, timing unknown
    Cabosun- we need to see the data, but Choueiri says"cabozantinib may have the potential to become a new gold standard", pretty telling statement
    Combination therapy- two shots on goal here with both Cotellic and Cabo showing promise in Phase 1 trials
    Roche Cotellic arbitration- seems likely they would get something out of this process or why bother?
    Cabometyx sales success- the range of estimates is all over the board but one must assume adoption will be good with "gold standard" label
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Upgraded!!

    by enabeler Jun 21, 2016 8:30 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jun 21, 2016 4:31 PM Flag

    I saw it on StreetInsider.com, posted at 7:16 am this morning.
    HEADLINE- Exelixis (EXEL) PT Raised to $10 at Leerink on CRC Opportunity for Cotellic
    "Leerink Partners analyst Michael Schmidt reiterated an Outperform rating and boosted his price target on Exelixis to $10.00 (from $8.00), saying the CRC opportunity for Cotellic is attractive."
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Upgraded!!

    by enabeler Jun 21, 2016 8:30 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jun 21, 2016 1:53 PM Flag

    Schmidt commented, "Reiterating our OP rating on EXEL as we see upside generated by Cotellic based on recent initiation of Phase III trials in colorectal cancer with addl. ongoing Phase I/II studies providing optionality. Our OP rating on EXEL is based on our thesis that recently FDA approved Cabometyx is well positioned to capture significant market share in the treatment of RCC, while expectations for Cotellic are still modest."
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jun 16, 2016 3:57 PM Flag

    We can debate revenues and trading patterns until the virtual cows come home, but one thing has to be true....EXEL's current $1.7B valuation is still low. We should expect the value to continue to climb, not straight up, but steadily as the market embraces that Cabo has been coined a potential "gold standard" in RCC by a top KOL. RCC..a growing indication headed for $4B in annual sales. This note is just a reminder for those who have waited patiently and impatiently for this day.... we recently discussed on our time.... and Ernie validated through emulated telephony..... Dr. Papadopoulus will take no less than $4B...why should you?
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    That 20 day countdown..

    by ulingt Jun 12, 2016 1:04 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jun 15, 2016 6:19 PM Flag

    The company/and us long shareholders would benefit from the use of cash to eliminate the converts prior to a buyout. The deal is 188 shares per $1000 bond, regardless of PPS. They average the PPS over 50 days, and payout in cash based upon 188 X the 50 day avg PPS. It's a benefit to everyone holding common (including the BOD and leadership) if they can figure out a way to convert with cash prior selling the company, as one must assume the sale would be at a premium higher than the current valuation. Thus preventing any part of the buyout premium winding up in convert holders hands. An acquirer, on the other hand, probably couldn't care less either way. They would offer what they consider to be fair value regardless of how many shares are outstanding. The converts mean nothing to them except only that retiring them will come out of the fair value.
    I'd like to see a cash redemption in 2017, asap after the company has a quarter in the black. Even if you have to take on another form of debt to get it done. Once in the black, getting money will be easier and cheaper. Then sell the company after Celestial topline for $4-5B. Or $6B. I'm easy.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    That 20 day countdown..

    by ulingt Jun 12, 2016 1:04 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jun 15, 2016 4:41 PM Flag

    Agree. If the redemption after Aug. 15th, 2016 is initiated by EXEL, the holders don't have any option to defer or bypass. The interesting part will be EXEL's options regarding selection of which bonds to redeem and how they choose to apply the payout, whether they go 100% common, 100% cash, or a combination. I wonder if the market would prefer a less impactful dilution (say 50%) of common, with the balance in cash. If the clinical uptake of RCC moves quickly in the US, EXEL could be cash flow positive relatively soon. Barring any new clinical trials, the ongoing cash needs are roughly 60K per quarter. If they get EMA approval, that equates to 1 quarter of cash. End of March cash was $407M. If they finish Q2 with $350M in cash, I think a Japanese partnership worth say $100M up front swings this to an early redemption. That way they could throw $250M of cash at the converts, settle the rest in common, and still have $200M in the till with additional milestones and ramping sales at hand. It's a long shot at best, with timing of a Japanese partner being the key, but I think the market would absolutely love that move.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    That 20 day countdown..

    by ulingt Jun 12, 2016 1:04 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jun 15, 2016 11:51 AM Flag

    They can use a combination of cash and stock at their discretion. But after they make the redemption announcement, they must stick with whatever offering they propose for that redemption period. If convert holders choose not to convert during the redemption window, then EXEL could change their offering the next time around. That is my interpretation. So the answer is they can make pretty much any offer that appears to work best. They could use cash and stock to rid themselves of the entire debt, without using all their cash or fully diluting the common.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jun 14, 2016 3:09 PM Flag

    While reviewing a PR from last years ASCO, I came across this paragraph. Interesting that MMM outlines their direction even back then, now over a year ago, prior to Meteor topline. Read carefully.

    "Commenting on the results, Michael M. Morrissey, Ph.D., Exelixis’ president and chief executive officer, said: “The results from Study E1512 demonstrate cabozantinib’s ability to extend progression-free survival and overall survival in a randomized phase 2 trial in comparison with erlotinib, an active comparator. The data also speak to cabozantinib’s potential as a component of combination therapy in non-small cell lung cancer. Exelixis is committed to working with our partners at ECOG-ACRIN and the National Cancer Institute to evaluate that potential, and we look forward to discussing possible next steps, including combination trials with immunotherapies, as well as potential pivotal studies in late-line disease.”

    Notice the immediate mention of "combination trials with immunotherapies", despite the subject being a positive outcome of a EGFR Wt NSCLC combo trial with erlotinib. Seems out of place...and yet not.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jun 13, 2016 7:59 PM Flag

    As we wait for EMA approval and a Japan deal, the best possible use of OUR time (if I'm here and you're here..) has to be speculating wildly on a prospective buyout.
    Another thought on timing. If...a buyer is interested today...the current cash plus near term milestones is a wash on all debt including the converts. That means we are really only dealing with the current float plus whatever outstanding options/warrants exist. Let's say 250M shares total. If we say Cabo will be a $1B PAR drug, including MTC, RCC, and HCC, and you plug in Ernie's 3.5 times PAR formula, the company is worth $3.5B for Cabo alone. Cotellic is much harder to value. PAR could be as little as $50M or as high as $300M. Throw it into the valuation at $150M PAR and your total EXEL valuation (not including intellectual property or any other assets) increases to just over $4B. Divide that by the above mentioned float....$16 PPS.
    That seems very possible to me. It assumes some big "ifs" on revenue and approvals (HCC), but there is plenty of upside for a buyer should either drug become part of significant PD1/PDL1 combinations.
    That is my lowest SWAG buyout number that Dr Papadapolous would support. If you don't believe me, I suggest you call him.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer Jun 13, 2016 12:44 PM Flag

    " the pipeline needs to be replenished beyond Cabo and Cobi"
    Why? We are talking about valuations in the next several years. You have extrapolated that out further IMO. If in 2-3 years EXEL is spinning off earnings of $2PPS, the pipeline isn't going to prevent the company from having a 10 multiple. Your examples for accessing debt is based upon EXEL as a developmental biotech, no longer the case, especially if "everything goes well" and earnings are as strong as my example.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer Jun 11, 2016 5:10 PM Flag

    Ernie,
    Tough to argue with your buyout formula's, however, the debate will still be revenue projections unless enough time has passed to see actuals and trending. As for valuation, would you agree that the value of this company could exceed the buyout value if they don't sell? Seems to me, assuming they don't "get the gang back together", the company with it's projected cost structure and revenue's of say $750M-1B annually (MTC, RCC, HCC, Cotellic, and?) would be extremely profitable and spinning off somewhere near $2 EPS fully diluted. Even a low multiple of 10X gets the company to $20 PPS. Not puffery, but perhaps an "everything goes well" outlook?
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New high is lurking

    by godhairyballs Jun 8, 2016 2:58 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jun 9, 2016 4:25 PM Flag

    I would only point out that there isn't a forced conversion of the converts, just because the conversion conditions permit. Assuming EXEL will automatically issue shares may prove incorrect. Today the converts represent debt. And currently that debt is not much more than cash or near term cash, almost a wash. While it's a good exercise to look at what a conversion would do to the float, it may not be something that happens until 2019 or never if EXEL has something in the convert agreement favorable to EXEL in the case of a buyout. If the company was bought out today, cash and the near term cash milestones would significantly offset any debt consideration on PPS.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Interesting

    by duckduffer Jun 9, 2016 1:44 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jun 9, 2016 2:35 PM Flag

    Yes, lots of valuation moving catalysts, including a Japanese partner. Just trying to place a fair value on things as they stand today, all in and adjusted for risk since many have yet to mature. I believe it's as we sit here today around $3B ($13 PPS). Clearly, we won't pop to that valuation in a matter of weeks, but it should happen in the relative nearer term (months not years). As things develop, if most go as planned, that total valuation increases and the process accelerates.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jun 9, 2016 1:44 PM Flag

    Interesting discussions going on re TA and trading strategies. For me this is still a long investment and the valuation is headed much higher than the current $1.69B. With RCC now looking more than ever like a $400M+ indication for Cabo, there should be little doubt the valuation will move to over $2B soon. That's close to $9 PPS. Then we try and understand the risk adjusted valuation for everything else, ie what is Celestial, the CRC Phase 3 Cotezo, all the ongoing Phase 2's including future trials for Cabo with PD1/PDL1 inhibitors, worth on a risk adjusted basis? I still believe we are headed to a $3B valuation with all the above factored in. And perhaps well beyond if things go well moving forward. Lot of runway left.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buyout Near?

    by duckduffer Jun 1, 2016 12:46 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jun 1, 2016 3:51 PM Flag

    Just a quick follow up on my last post..."Justin" forgot to comprehend the partnership agreement in his revenue projections for EXEL. The good news, he was speculating only on US sales, the bad, he forgot that EXEL shares Cotellic profits only and thus EXEL will likely average something like 35-40% of the revenues he projected. Still a huge potential catalyst and adding in Europe licensing fees (low double digits) could still be a $350M revenue/profit indication for EXEL.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buyout Near?

    by duckduffer Jun 1, 2016 12:46 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jun 1, 2016 3:20 PM Flag

    A post yesterday on Ohad Hammer's blog, did a really nice job quantifying the potential of the Cobi CRC opportunity, albeit it very early. Here is the portion of the post by "Justin".

    "Cobi/Atezo (REALLY EXCITING) – The oral presentation related to Phase I mCRC results look very promising as it could represent the first drug combo to work in mismatch proficient mCRC (which is approx. 85% of the 57K new cases diagnosed in US each year).

    If the drug combo were approved in this indication, it could become the gold standard and could be MAJOR to EXEL’s bottomline (85% x 57K patients = 48,450 eligible patients x 40% market penetration (low?) = 19,380 treatable patients x $5,000 per month ($5K is assuming Roche greatly lowballs the value of Cobi vs. Atezo in the combo) = $97mil in EXEL monthly revenue x 7 months on therapy = $678mil in annual revenue potential! This is HUGE (if happens) and could actually make Cobi more valuable than Cabo.

    What I find very interesting and encouraging about this occurring (Phase III for Cobi/Atezo in mCRC) is that Genetech posted a job last month for a Clinical Scientist Associate for the Cobimetinib Program."

    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jun 1, 2016 12:46 PM Flag

    With current valuation near $1.5B, is a buyout a possibility? Clearly EXEL has proven the value of it's assets are much more significant than was evident even 60 days ago. Cabo is positioned for the or one of the leading spots in the RCC treatment algorithm, an expanding indication heading for a $4.5B market by 2020. Besides RCC and MTC, Cabo could be proven effective in several other indications (HCC, etc) and as a combo drug with immunotherapy. Cotellic is also now FDA approved in combo for MM and is showing some very "provocative" early combo data in CRC with Roche's PD-L1 inhibitor. The question is really what is all that worth? And at this point, $1.5B, is the value close enough to find a bargaining point? The EXEL BOD is likely looking for a home run only type deal, as they know what they have and are likely confident in at least another key approval (HCC) in the relatively near future. Time will tell...going to be a fun year.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Motley Fool ..

    by sidi May 31, 2016 3:32 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer May 31, 2016 3:44 PM Flag

    MF is no better than Yahoo Finance. They are selling click thru volume, so ridiculous headlines with poorly conceived supporting articles. To suggest that 2 institutions who sold positions in Q1 is relevant to today's valuation is a poor argument. Those sales were prior to a number of huge catalysts (like early approval in RCC and positive CaboSun topline).
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Dr. Grothey recommends 2 of interest here. Abstract #3502 Cobi and Atezo in CRC and also "Using Genomics and Biomarkers to Predict Response" #103 PD-1 in mismatch repair deficient CRC. 50% response rate in deficient MMR and a 0% response in positive MMR.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer May 27, 2016 5:43 PM Flag

    "the short position actually increased in May"
    It may have moved up slightly, but in general terms EXEL is no longer the short playground it once was. At only 22% of the float, the short position is no longer even Top 50 in the NASDAQ among highly shorted companies.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

EXEL
7.69-0.16(-2.04%)Jun 24 4:00 PMEDT