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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

duckduffer 30 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: May 29, 2003
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  • duckduffer duckduffer 8 hours ago Flag

    Good thing those convertibles aren't due until 2019, by which time Meteor and Celestial will have concluded and Cabo will potentially be approved for use in both RCC and HCC, producing additional sales to the already approved indication of MTC and the profit share of Cobi. CRPC was only one shot on EXEL. There are many left.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Should be somewhat enlightening as to the short term priorities. Clearly the company still has big opportunities with RCC, HCC, NSSLC and of course, Cobimetinib. The Hammer blog has been 100% correct so far and Omar suggested the value of EXEL to be in the 5's despite his prediction of a Comet 1 failure. I would suggest you read the blog prior to selling. Omar has an excellent track record and his estimates for the future of EXEL are much brighter than the mood on this message board this evening. While we don't have the detail of the CoBrim results, we know they achieved the trial endpoints. If they are as good as the Phase 2 results, EXEL's profit share partnership could be in the $500-1B dollar valuation range. Just food for thought.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer Aug 29, 2014 11:38 AM Flag

    Good catch hbomb. I almost forgot that GSK had a 3% royalty on net sales of Cabo. It still amazes me that the market hasn't really valued Cabo for this nearly 100% ownership. Whenever I see anything referencing Xofigo, it reminds me that Bayer paid ($2.9B) for Algeta to get the 50% of Xofigo they didn't already own. And the capper, Xofigo was then turned down by NICE in March for use in CRPC. Xofigo, with a 2.8 month OS benefit on patients who did not have visceral metastases (which is up to 25% of total CRPC group) was valued at $5.8B. Compare that to EXEL's current valuation of $800M. And that includes MTC and Cobi........
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Timeline misconceptions

    by socialidiocies Aug 27, 2014 1:23 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Aug 27, 2014 1:35 PM Flag

    Social- You've descended into just pure babbling. Sorry but it's time to put you on ignore as you have nothing to add to the conversation that I need to evaluate.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    5 full months past interim analysis announcement

    by wildbiftek Aug 26, 2014 4:49 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Aug 27, 2014 1:18 PM Flag

    Socialidiocies,
    It's statements you make like this one "It’s truly unfortunate that the majority of the population is average and below intelligence" that prompts folks to point out how flawed your pompous comments actually are. The Comet 1 trial will report top line data after 578 events. That is when final data will be collected for primary outcome measurements. To state anything other than that is speculation. Your speculation of June of 2015, however, is really way out there speculation. You clearly don't have a grasp of the patient population enrolled in this trial. Do a little more research and then try espousing your expertise with slightly more credibility.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    5 full months past interim analysis announcement

    by wildbiftek Aug 26, 2014 4:49 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Aug 26, 2014 8:53 PM Flag

    Socialidiocies,
    You may or may not be aware but you aren't making any sense. Statements from your posts are either inaccurate or not possible. As an example-"I don't know, they could have enrolled the last 1/3 of patients in the third quarter of 2014, which means we will not have the data"
    Read the clinical trial updates for Comet 1 and you will find out the trial was fully enrolled in Sept. '13. We are currently in the 3rd quarter of 2014, so enrolling patients is null as the trial has been fully enrolled for almost a year.
    Do the math on the length of time since the enrollment was completed, 11 months. While we don't know the exact enrollment for each month, we do know it was fully enrolled 11 months ago. That is longer than the estimated mean survival for the control group of these very sick patients re the design of the trial. Suggesting the trial could go to June of 2015 is a massive stretch. If the treatment was that effective, it likely would have shown up in the interim results.
    Think about it, 387 events triggered the interim in March. Even if we assume they enrolled a large percentage in the last couple of quarters before Sept. '13, we could still safely assume 70% enrollment occurred by June'13, or 672 patients. And we can also assume the 387 events triggering the interim would come from that group. We can then assume that at least 285 of the remaining sick patients would now have been either on placebo or treatment for 13 months minimum and most longer than that. It seems nearly impossible that out of those 285 patients on either treatment or placebo for a minimum of 13 months, that there wouldn't have been 191 more events. This trial is salvage therapy, with a very very sick group of patients who have exhausted the treatment regime. I hope for the patients sake and for the sake of future Cabo patients, that this assumption is wrong. But it is what the trial is expecting.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    survival

    by ieteriinto Aug 12, 2014 10:49 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Aug 13, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

    Bif-
    This statement- " Perhaps they've weighed the cost of appearing to continue the trial vs the hit shares would take on a non stat-sig read out" would make sense if they (MMM) were interested in the daily share price. However, their actions up to this point would indicate they don't manage expectations in a way that would impact the PPS. For better or worse, I don't believe they are going to change now.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Aug 12, 2014 11:23 AM Flag

    We are 3 days away from getting all the updated institutional ownership numbers from end of June. So far there isn't much too report, but it appears Wellington CM may have lightened up significantly. If one was to interpret their SC13G/A filing as saying they own 12M shares currently, that's about 8M fewer than they held at last report. It would also appear they sold on July 15th, one of two huge volume days (38M & 16M shares) following the Cobi announcement and speculation of a Roche takeout. So if your wondering why the Cobi rally fizzled......To further expand on the selling pressure that has been present since then, during that same period July 15-July31 shorts piled on with another 3+M shares sold short. Now we know why there has been selling pressure despite excellent news regarding Cobi meeting its trial endpoints.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer Aug 5, 2014 4:52 PM Flag

    Here is some advice from MACABUS-
    "The Section 382 limitation may be circumvented if the target and buyer collaborate to sell unwanted target assets with unrealized built-in gains before the acquisition occurs. The target may then use its NOL to offset the gain on the sale without limitation. If the unwanted asset disposal occurred after the transaction, on the other hand, the NOL would be subject to limitation under Section 382 would not go as far in shielding the gain."
    Unwanted target asset for anyone other than Roche...Cobi.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer Aug 5, 2014 2:27 PM Flag

    Ernie,
    You nailed it. That's a very sound strategy IMO. If anyone other than Roche is interested in acquiring EXEL, Cobi's asset value as a partnered drug is limited. So sell it to Roche, keep all the cash with minimal tax implications (due to tax loss carryforward) and then potential buyers see a much different EXEL. A bundle of cash, no partners on Cabo, and 2 pivotal Phase 3 trials reading out in the next 2 years. Add in a successful Comet trial and you have a homerun takeout target. SELL COBI NOW :)
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer Aug 5, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    They would not be able to use the NOL's. Those are not transferred in an acquisition.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Aug 5, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    That's my advice for the BOD. The early peak annual projections for EXEL's share of Cobi profits in advanced melanoma w/BRAF are anywhere from $150M to $200M. This is a fast growing indication and Cobi has other clinical trials in the works, so those figures should do nothing but increase. This is key, IMO, to the valuation of Cobi. It means EXEL can justify a higher sale price. Remember as well that the dollars to EXEL are % of profit. Multiples used to calculate asset values in biotech are typically of peak annual REVENUES. Profit is better and justifies a higher multiple. IMO EXEL may be able to sell Cobi for as much as $800M+ to Roche. I think they should. EXEL's valuation would immediately be lower than cash (cash would be over a billion). EXEL would have the resources to fund the Cabo "franchise" with zero additional cash raising. Let's face it, right now the market doesn't appear to be putting any value on Cobi, so why not sell it?
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Aug 1, 2014 11:34 AM Flag

    I don't think anything is ever in stone when it comes to raising cash, but here is the most compelling statement in the CC from my perspective. It's from Debbie Burke-
    "We continue to expect total cost and expenses in the range of $250 million to $280 million and we anticipate to end the year with greater than $200 million in cash. Our outlook for the length of our financial runway also has not changed and we continue to be confident that our runway extends through the readout of METEOR trial for RCC."
    IMO this is a declaration that the plan is to not raise equity until after RCC topline data which should be early 2015. That would explain the $80M fundraising they did in March. I'm optimistic about COMET, but let's face it, the single most likely trial to show overwhelmingly positive data is METEOR. I like the plan. Let's hope they stick to it.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    what i think is this...

    by cocofromafrica101 Jul 30, 2014 8:41 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 31, 2014 11:49 AM Flag

    Metro,
    This quote " After including the premium, the buyout price would likely be in the neighborhood of $3-$5. At the very least this provides a solid floor to the investment." is debatable. What possible incentive would EXEL's board have to unload the company for $3-5 prior to RCC and HCC trials reading out? I understand the point is there is a floor to the investment and that provides some derisking for investors, but the idea they would sell the company in that price range is hard to fathom. Cobi is in the bag, that alone is worth $5 PPS. MTC is in the bag, another $2 PPS. Necessary dilution to fund the ongoing trials will obviously negatively effect those PPS valuations if Comet 1 doesn't meet its objectives , but it won't force the company to sell at a discount IMHO. There is still way too much potential upside within reach.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    In the batter's circle..Michael Morrisey

    by milkman92714 Jul 30, 2014 3:50 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 30, 2014 5:13 PM Flag

    MM's quaff is the result of an extraordinarily large brain pushing the hair follicles toward the sky with tremendous internal pressure. It would be foolhardy to underestimate what a brain like that is capable of.....
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer Jul 30, 2014 5:02 PM Flag

    Perhaps EXEL needed a breather after moving up 28% over the last 7 trading days.....or perhaps the fix is in...and someone somewhere knows something somehow....
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer Jul 29, 2014 2:50 PM Flag

    Clem,
    In case you missed it the Roche buyout speculation was initiated by a tweet from David Miller, biotech analyst with Alpine BioVentures. That is what has moved the PPS. Not a bunch of posts on the YMB. This is his exact tweet- "Question now is when does $RHHBY take out $EXEL ? Just a question of timing at this point." And his reasoning from an Adam F. interview- "Roche has been touting the importance of the [cobi/Zelboraf] combination trial for well over a year now. They see the importance of this therapy even if bank analysts don't, and 50% profit share in the U.S. and a low-teens royalty overseas is a lot for Roche to be giving away to Exelixis," says Miller.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer Jul 28, 2014 5:13 PM Flag

    "It would mean the CEO and CFO exposing themselves to potential litigation and penalty with too many potential witnesses"

    My guess is MM has no desire to wear stripes or face an investor lawsuit. And the hair...the hair would be a problem in the joint.....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    News at 6AM tomorrow would not surprise me

    by roger5147 Jul 24, 2014 6:23 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 24, 2014 8:48 PM Flag

    Cowen's Dr. Eric Schmidt-

    Dr. Schmidt: We think the COMET-1 trial has a better than 50% chance of success. This based upon favorable Phase II data across a variety of metrics including prolonged PFS, bone scan resolution, pain reductions, and CTC count lowering.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Comet 1- every day counts

    by davethepackerfan Jul 24, 2014 10:49 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 24, 2014 2:36 PM Flag

    Mathematically speaking, patients are randomized 2:1 to receive cabozantinib or prednisone , the longer the trial goes should be a good thing. More patients are receiving Cabo, which I believe would mean a lower event rate overall favors patients on treatment. Not an expert on the subject, but my 101 level math skills suggest that has to be the case. Definitely not a sure thing, but favorable.
    Anyone have a different take on that?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

EXEL
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