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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

duckduffer 62 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 27, 2015 1:01 PM Member since: May 29, 2003
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  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jun 5, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    A big factor in the potential revenues of a drug is the time the drug will be used by each patient as therapy. While many here have been very conservative about the revenue implications of a successful RCC trial and the revenue implications of a Cobi MM approval, the lesser reviewed fact is the huge gap in TOT. If Cabo is successful with a strong PFS extension over Afinitor (10 mo vs 5 mo) the TOT for Cabo is double. So any annual revenue calculations should include this factor. If Afinitor is a $500M drug in RCC, Cabo could be considered a potential $1B drug in RCC (assuming similar pricing). Prior to the launch of GSK's combo therapy, Zelboraf was trending towards $400M in annual MM revenues. With the latest ASCO Cobrim data, CobiV conceivably becomes the SOC, and regains its marketshare. With CobiV extending PFS by 70%, that is 5 more months TOT. 70% more revenue. There are many points to consider here, but TOT is simple math and it could be very favorable for EXEL.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • It's difficult to expect much PPS action relating to the short squeeze theories being tossed around simply because much of the short interest is hedged by convertibles, options, etc. But....it would be fascinating to see what happens if Cobi and METEOR binary events land on the same week or even day....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jun 16, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    The concept of confirmation bias is one that is used as a counter argument in a debate where there is no reasonable or logical premise to disagree. IE if everyone thinks its correct....then it must be wrong. However, that argument requires more than just many agreeing. Contrarians win when group think has taken over and all logic and supporting data suggest the opposite of the popular belief.
    With METEOR the data suggests the control (afinitor) will perform to historical efficacy. With METEOR the data suggests a longer trial is better for the Cabo arm. With Cabo the data indicated VEGF TKI's are successful in this indication, and a small Phase 1b trial supported this data. Logic suggests the data supports a METEOR success.
    No guarantees, obviously, just look at the PPS. But for a speculative investment, where is the logical counter argument?
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What's wrong with this picture?

    by enabeler Jun 24, 2015 12:22 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jun 24, 2015 6:14 PM Flag

    "Meanwhile, as you can see from my little comparison, EXEL is STILL the buy of the year"
    You may be spot on. If METEOR is a success, we can thank the convertibles for the whole kit and caboodle. The currently manipulated low price at which you add shares, the METEOR trial itself (was funded by the convertible offering), and the purchased shares at ridiculously low manipulated prices over the last couple of years. Thank you MMM. You may have made a bunch of folks a ton of money.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jun 24, 2015 6:21 PM Flag

    As stated by Ernie many moons ago right here on the YMB, where, if not the YMB, is the right place for rank speculation. So here goes.
    Based on the delayed release of the topline results from Q2 to Q3 combined with the historical performance of Afinitor....my SWAG on minimum median PFS for CABO in RCC is 11 months. Could be better.....but I don't think it will be worse. And IMO 11 months would be a game changer for EXEL. When will we get these results...I have no idea. But the longer out...the better IMO.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What's wrong with this picture?

    by enabeler Jun 24, 2015 12:22 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jun 25, 2015 11:50 AM Flag

    Snow,
    You are completely missing the point I was making. We could debate whether or not EXEL would be $30 dollars without having issued the converts (seems wildly unlikely). Or whether there was a line of deep pockets waiting for another common offering with at that time no approved drugs. Or whether MTC approval was in fact at risk due to inconclusive OS data. Or whether bio analysts were highly suspect of the comet trials because at that time there was no supporting trial evidence of OS in CRPC, only markers and bone scans. OR the fact that when the converts were issued COBI wasn't even on the radar. We could waste considerable energy on those points, but why? What occurred with the converts, while painful to watch, was for most of us...a potential windfall. If METEOR is successful and that success is indicative of success in CELESTIAL and EGFRwt NSCLC ....and Cobi becomes the SOC in the CombiV MM treatment..longs will have stolen shares in this undervalued company for the last several years. The valuation will eventually be there...and meanwhile I own more than 3 times the shares I owned in Aug 2012 thanks to the discount applied due to the converts. And I think many on this board have the same experience. I know from your posts you indulged early this year.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SA article

    by tm171717 Jun 25, 2015 4:40 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jun 25, 2015 6:33 PM Flag

    Here is one of my favorite parts. The author points out that in the Phase 2 RDT for CRPC-
    "The trial was stopped after 171 patients were treated demonstrating 70% positive responses with a median PFS of 23.9 weeks vs. 5.9 weeks for the control arm."
    ....there was clearly a huge PFS benefit from Cabo. And then the author tries to spin this that even with this success in the smaller trial, Comet was a failure. But he makes no connection that Comet didn't have a PFS endpoint. And METEOR does.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Puts

    by stimulustrader Jun 26, 2015 10:33 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jun 26, 2015 11:33 AM Flag

    I would suggest in light of the strong call buying in recent weeks, this is possibly a hedge rather than a bet against METEOR.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Adam Feuerstein on Exelixis

    by stimulustrader Jun 26, 2015 8:40 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jun 26, 2015 12:09 PM Flag

    Pretty pointless article. No question the data needs to be robust for EXEL to get a significant share in RCC. Fairly obvious. Just meeting the trial endpoints will likely be just as AF described, a pop to the PPS without much follow up. Good news but not game changing. Lot's of VEGF TKI's to pick from in RCC.
    The missing scoop from his article...the trial is taking longer...which could mean a longer median PFS for Cabo, potentially game changing. He didn't mention that, nor speculate on what a PFS similar to the Phase1b of 12.9 months would mean to the PPS, which is the one very obvious lean towards creating doubt. I'd go with soft bash just because he clearly avoided anything that would spin more positive than negative. No doubt orchestrated with yesterdays SA article and today's bearish options activity.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer Jun 26, 2015 2:39 PM Flag

    Yahoo doesn't post SA articles

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer Jun 26, 2015 4:28 PM Flag

    That's a link to The Street Biotech Stock Mailbag with AF's comments. No link to Seeking Alpha article on Yahoo. They no longer post SA articles.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Convertible debt

    by alexp1112 Jun 30, 2015 4:32 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jun 30, 2015 5:44 PM Flag

    Can't point you in the direction of an article on the convertible debt However, IMO a successful METEOR is the trigger for convert holders to cover their hedge/arbitrage short positions. Manipulating the PPS can only be effective while EXEL is in financial uncertainty. METEOR provides EXEL with a vehicle to raise cash (exUS partnership) and begin generating real impactful revenues (ie hundreds of millions). In addition to clearing those financial uncertainties, a successful METEOR is only the first catalyst. It will be followed in short order by Cobi approval in August. Also remember, EXEL still has a high institutional ownership, over 60%. Those huge firms are going to want to maximize their returns just as much as the convert holders. The removal of risk with a successful METEOR is the key to seeing the value here unlocked.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A quick note on the Convertible Debt:

    by maxx22xx Jul 1, 2015 9:34 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 1, 2015 12:18 PM Flag

    urabt2,
    How would you have raised the money needed for the METEOR and CELESTIAL? You realize the converts were issued in conjunction with a common stock offering (34.5M shares)? Do you think they wouldn't have offered more common if there was a market appetite?
    Any other CEO/BOD types posting here have a good answer for that question? Love to hear how that would have been handled in the real world? Or was the answer to just not raise any more funds and hope that MTC approval would have rocked the PPS? The reality is the PPS went down after the MTC approval. Would have been tough to run METEOR and CELESTIAL without the $250M they raised with the converts.
    Thoughts?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A quick note on the Convertible Debt:

    by maxx22xx Jul 1, 2015 9:34 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 1, 2015 12:34 PM Flag

    EXEL can call the bonds after 8/16 if the last reported sale price of the Common Stock for 20 or more trading days in a period of 30 consecutive trading days ending on the trading day prior to the date the Issuer provides notice of redemption exceeds 130% of the conversion price in effect on each such trading day. In other words, once it gets to and stays above $6.90, EXEL can call the bonds or the holders can convert to common, all prior to 2019.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    METEOR data

    by retsoz Jul 1, 2015 9:38 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 1, 2015 12:38 PM Flag

    This is the same Deerfield $100 million they postponed in March. There is no new 100M deal.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A quick note on the Convertible Debt:

    by maxx22xx Jul 1, 2015 9:34 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 1, 2015 9:01 PM Flag

    "Think about the Comet trials and what they have cost us in dilution?"
    Think about what having a partner on Cabo would cost us if RCC is a home run. If it turns out to be a billion dollar indication, the math is quite favorable that not partnering was the right decision.
    Time will tell.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jul 2, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    And METEOR can read out topline data any day now. All the hoopla and attention around a Cobi delay has obfuscated the biggest catalyst for EXEL. We are within striking distance of game changing news.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Can't wait for the next cut and paste article

    by sociadiocies Jul 10, 2015 12:06 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 10, 2015 1:47 PM Flag

    Look who showed up. Bushido, et al's alter ego. Social spelled Socia. What fun...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New PH 1 trial

    by urabt2 Jul 13, 2015 8:43 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 13, 2015 1:23 PM Flag

    BMS returned Cabo in June of 2010, prior to the bone scans, RDT readout and 2 years prior to the announcement of the Comet trials. According to Scangos who was CEO at the time, "We were unable to reach an agreement with BMS on what the appropriate clinical program would be." The Comet trials were not announced until 2012, 6 months after EXEL failed to get an SPA for the proposed 306 trial for Cabo in November of 2011. It would appear BMS may have simply had conflicting compounds they chose to dedicate their research efforts towards.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New PH 1 trial

    by urabt2 Jul 13, 2015 8:43 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 13, 2015 1:56 PM Flag

    This is what they had on the docket at the time BMS returned Cabo, prior to the RDT Phase 2 results.

    "Phase III design unveiled: Exelixis is investigating even lower doses of XL184 in first-line and refractory glioblastoma. In the meantime the company believes 125mg is adequate for an initial phase III trial in refractory glioblastoma. The company and partner Bristol Myers Squibb anticipate initiating a 400-patient controlled randomized phase III trial of XL184 vs. lomustine (also known as CCNU) in recurrent glioblastoma by year-end. The study will have co-primary endpoints of overall survival (powered to achieve statistical significance) and PFS. Median OS and PFS on lomustine are expected to be 7 and 1.5 months respectively. The study will enroll patients mainly in Europe and will not allow crossover. Positive data could support a 2013 filing."

    One might speculate this indication/Phase 3 was getting pushed aside based on compelling data in larger indications from the RDT, and BMS wasn't in agreement on the new direction.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

EXEL
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