UPS paid $40M in 2013. FDX fights it and charges are dropped. Same issue. We've made some expensive miscalculations in recent years. The TNT failure to close was extremely expensive and then FDX comes along and buys it for at least 1/3 cheaper. The buyout from the Central States Pension program was a good move though.
I don't see a blow-out but guess at $1.28 and $14.6B in revenue. With the shaky world economy, I don't see how they could raise full year expectations though. They'll maintain. Still much better than the broader economy.
Their Forward P/E is around 14.5 despite the move up near $160. Our forward P/E is around 16.5. Next month we need a blow out too and revenue must be part of it.
I think the going forward confidence is really helping us now. Perhaps investors are smart to look at individual stocks vs. the indexes right now. If we can add an 8-9% dividend increase soon it will really be a show of strength.
How many companies are able to say they smashed earnings expectations, would have beaten revenue except for currency/turning down sales (additional volume at peak), issued 2016 projections that exceeded analyst's expectations and will probably increase a healthy dividend payout by around 9%? If the market weren't in a temporary free-for-all malaise we'd by close to triple digits.
I think when the smoke clears investors will note that while many other companies have issued bleak forecasts UPS indicated it expects to exceed what the analysts had been projecting for 2016. It's just a shame that our results came out on a down market day. The pre-market was much better and then the regular trading day began.
I'm also concerned with the going forward. The blizzard on the east coast can't be particularly helpful to start 2016 either. I'm very curious to hear about the DIM weight impact on peak as well as any Amazon discussion. But Ryan makes a good point about comps getting easier too. BTW, seems like the market is voting for a nice earnings report tomorrow (at least 1/2 hour before close it is).
Exact opposite is true. Free cash flow has always been a strong point. There is a question about whether we should keep pace with the recent 8-9% increases. I think the earnings call will make that issue more clear with the going forward advice being key. In my mind, we'll be reporting a solid peak season but by now that is old news. It's the future that will grab investor's attention.
If an investor had to look at sectors to buy into, it appears that utilities, communications and consumer discretionary might be the selections. UPS with it's 3%+ dividend almost acts like a utility is some ways. FDX of course does not. However, unless UPS warns about 2016 expectations at the upcoming earnings call, one would think the small package players would continue to thrive with retail online ordering. FDX with it's "lucky" move in Europe via the TNT transaction should be in a pretty good place. But despite all this, these 2 companies are way low on forward P/E's. UPS sits well below 16 and FDX below 11. So, both should fit into the value play investing mode that the talking heads keep saying is the new market direction.
In a few weeks, we'll get our first hints at evolving UPS strategy. With Amazon's recent moves and the EU's dubious no conditions approval of the TNT takeover, UPS must be laying out responses to both in future planning. By acquiring TNT, FDX is almost equal to UPS in market share once they have integrated operations. In the U.S., there has been an alarming trend of FDX routes providing faster service than UPS and that needs to be addressed. UPS has its challenges and I'm sure is prepared to meet them but it's not going to be easy.
UPS is they don't change guidance is looking at a forward P/E of 16. FDX is 11. Those are historically cheap P/E's. Maybe for many companies their share price is high but not these 2 companies.
We need to address 3 things well. First, a solid peak season report superior to FDX's. Secondly, we need to confirm our going forward advice. Thirdly, there should be some prepared discussion for how we are working with Amazon in the future and how the FDX acquisition of TNT will be competitively addressed. It would be nice to hear forceful confidence with some sort of master plan- similar to the 3-year efficiency plan that FDX is just completing. Investors need to know that we're proactive not reactive.
Mcf- I'm a bit worried about the after-effect of this TNT purchase long-term. One of the UPS competitive advantages was its dominant position in Europe. FDX was stronger in China and now be well on their way to equal footing in Europe as well. Interesting how this will play out. But, for what it's worth, I can't understand why the EU didn't make FDX at least give up some consolation somewhere. It almost feels like a conspiracy. We need more pep in our step from the P/R, business development side.
UPS makes a play for TNT, is denied buy EU for anti-competitive purposes and pays a hefty break-up fee to TNT. FDX walks thru the open door, makes a lower bid for TNT and gets approved with no strings attached. I guess there's fairness there somewhere.