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United Parcel Service, Inc. Message Board

dudesbag 30 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 29, 2015 6:52 PM Member since: Oct 3, 2004
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  • The midwest and east will be getting deteriorating weather conditions starting Tuesday later in the day. Looks like we avoided any weather disasters like last year.

  • Reply to

    ups will never catch fdx pps

    by booozer Dec 18, 2014 5:59 AM
    dudesbag dudesbag Dec 18, 2014 1:06 PM Flag

    Whambly- right on all counts. Somehow, Fred Smith is the darling of the business world despite such an exploitative business model for residential deliveries. Every state should be up in arms about it as it cost the taxpayers plenty.

  • A story says the USPS has been working closely with Amazon in metro areas to deliver packages on Sunday since mid-November. So, clearly Amazon, at least for a certain segment of its packages, has been using an alternative to UPS. The Post Office #'s are up double digits from 2013 volume-wise and I'm sure part of that has come from the FDX and UPS final mile programs. Also, Goldman Sachs added FDX to its conviction buy list with a 12 month target of $211. Meanwhile, our last analyst moves were downgrades. It is vital that we both perform well during peak while controlling our manpower costs at the same time. This is tricky because you need to use helpers to "keep them in the fold" but don't want to cut too many trips either. Any input on this from current or recently retired UPS'ers?

  • Reply to

    FDX earnings.

    by dudesbag Dec 17, 2014 7:09 AM
    dudesbag dudesbag Dec 17, 2014 7:35 AM Flag

    FDX misses by at least a nickle and comes up short on revenue too. Not a good sign when fuel prices are so low. providing great tailwinds. Is it a harbinger for UPS's report? One thing for sure, FDX shares were priced to absolute perfection. They actually had a pretty good Q but the expectations were absurd. AT least UPS is more reasonable that way. We'll probably still get hammered though.

  • dudesbag by dudesbag Dec 17, 2014 7:09 AM Flag

    At 7:30 we'll find out much about how the peak season is going as FDX reports their Q2. Many think their stock is priced to perfection and here's part of why. Analysts expect them to improve their EPS from last year's $1.57 to this year's $2.19 or 39.5%. Meanwhile, UPS is looking for about 1/2 that size of EPS increase for our peak. Having 1/3 the # of shares outstanding that UPS has makes a big difference but that is still a very impressive # if FDX pulls it off with revenues beating as well. Beyond that, they just announced 2 acquisitions ti improve their networks going forward.

  • To take our minds off what we hope will be a moderate weather peak season and therefore rewarding for both customers and shareholders alike, what are thoughts about the dividend increase? We average a 9% increase per year. If that were to apply to a $110 base, it would move the dividend up to $2.92 or plus $.06 a quarter. The new rate off that same base would be 2.65%. I'd be very pleased with that.

  • dudesbag by dudesbag Dec 7, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    Something good to keep in mind. Our December fuel surcharge is based upon October fuel prices which were much higher. So, if we manage our peak well, we should have that nice margin expansion to throw into the mix.

  • dudesbag by dudesbag Nov 17, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    3:30 today??? What was that all about?

  • Reply to

    Hedge on fuel vs. stock buybacks?

    by dudesbag Nov 3, 2014 6:57 PM
    dudesbag dudesbag Nov 14, 2014 5:23 PM Flag

    How about paying down future pension costs?

  • Here's something worth thinking about. With UPS shares approaching $106, it seems we might be better served spending some of the stock buyback $$ on hedging fuel costs at decidedly lower cost levels than in recent memory. How much lower than $78 can they go? Thoughts?

    Sentiment: Buy

98.84-1.58(-1.57%)Jan 30 4:01 PMEST

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