As you said in WW's thread tomorrow has some significance. I guess we disagree as to whether 12/3112 is important. Obviously, you and I also disagree on the occurrence of chance events.
Nothing ever happens in SIRI by accident.
SIRI closed at 2.89 on 12/31/12. It hit a high of 4.18. $4.18 minus 2.89 equals 1.29. The current close is 3.69. $3.69 minus 2.89 equals 80. 80 divided by 1.29 equals 62%.
Say hello to Flabby, now that you see him.
So what was Barrons? My view is it was a trap but over the LONG TERM will turn profitable.
There is a three sided battle going on in SIRI. If you understand the battle you will find watching it more entertaining. You need to know everyone understands the other's strategy which makes it interesting. The players. JM's allies, the CBH and the market technicians (MT). JM's strategy is to defend the $3.66 line and to try to get the stock above the 50 DMA which is now at 3.82/3.83. The CBH are trying to crash 3.65 and will defend the 50 DMA. The MT will join whoever is winning which helps to explain the rapid sell off on Monday. Hooray for MT. JM's allies need real $ to buy while the CBH are shorting the bonds and don't need real $. Advantage CBH. JM & SIRI can plant stories. Advantage JM. The stock has stopped 3 times at the 50 DMA. 11/4, 11/15/11/18 and 11/25 with a negative MACD . Technicals favor CBH. JM gets another margin call at 3.35. There are stop loss orders lined up at 3.59, 3.54 & 3.49. Hit 3.59 and you get a waterfall effect. Hit 3.86 on volume and the MT join JM. Hope you enjoy the battle.
The Nov. auto sales will be announced this week. Forget SAARS. Look at the YOY numbers. Expected 4/5% increase. Early in the year it was always double diget increases. Smaller YOY bad for SIRI.
Last week Eagle posted his angst over my position and "conspiracy" theory. I understand my long time readers are upset and am aware of your concern. My investment strategy is based on the business cycle, SIRI's PPS and overall market conditions. None of these favor SIRI at the present moment. Your investment strategy is based on blind faith and undying love. At some point my views will change and you will see that I have covered my short and gone long. That is the beauty of visiting the Land Of The Duke. You never know when that will happen.
I will be traveling next week so I will see you in two weeks. However, my clone and his 200 posts will be here to entertain you.
The problem facing the BOD's of SIRI and LM was that LM was the majority owner of SIRI and had inside information as to what was going to happen in Q3. If the BB occurred before the CC, there was sure to be a SDS alleging that SIRI overpaid LM for its shares. To solve the problem, both sides decided to let the market price the LM BB. This way it would be difficult to challenge in court. LM really doesn't care if they have to transfer more shares of SIRI since it got 40% of the SIRI for free. It wants its 1.7B investment back AND control of the company. The BB also contained a 1.5% discount to the market price so SIRi could argue it negotiated in good faith. You never know what will fool a judge these days.
If LM really believed that SIRI was going to go to $4.50 they would have included a SHARE REPRICING CLAUSE (SRC) so that the Jan and April shares would have been repriced at the higher level. The clause is not there so it tells The Duke that LM is not expecting a big move. Of course, you can argue that LM & JM are incompetent and want to expose themselves to a SDS to help SIRI. More fantasy thinking. You now understand the basis for The Duke's $2.90 prediction. If you are long, you are betting against LM, if you are short, you are betting with LM. Nothing is ever the way it seems in SIRI land.
LM does not want SIRI's price to decline too far because that means another collateral call. Tight situation. Hence, the Barron's cover. JM called in a favor. This will buy SIRI another two weeks. The problem is the bad CC coming up in Jan.
If you are short with a profit you can cover tomorrow and reshort at a higher price. If you are long, your profit will be gone in two weeks. Happy Thanksgiving to all and a special thanks to JM for the Barron's cover.