Based on our latest study, it's confirmed that GLUU will be a $10 or higher stock after Q4 report based on:
(1) iOR daily revenue reached 367k on Oct.30 (2013)- grossing #5
(2) Top 10 grossing across Europe and Asia (France, UK, Japan, China etc.)
(3) Upcoming good games- Motocross meltdown, Robocop, 007 games etc. (which may have big hit again).
(4) Skillz tournament competitions
It was traded as low as $2.5 on Oct.3, $3.9 on Oct.29. Our prediction is: It will go to $8 by December (2013) and above $10 after Q4 report in early 2014.
by Dr (dum researcher)
Information available to public is clear.
It could be used to estimate GLUU's revenue and earning for Q4 (which has a full quarter after launching the DH14.
Using 'Conservative Numbers' as shown below:
DH14 daily revenue= 200k
Android daily revenue= 100k
US revenue = 50% whole world revenue
implies, DH14 daily revenue= (200k+100k)/0.5= 600k per day (gross)
1 quarter=90 days, so gross revenue= 600k*90= 54 millions
Assume 60% net profit, it implies,
Profit= 54 x 0.6 = 32.4M (from DH14)
Assume net loss without DH14= 7M and all others remain the same as before,
implies, Net Profit for Q4= 32.4-7=25.4M
GLUU has 71 million shares
So, earning per share = 25.4/71= 36 cents per share
For tomorrow's Q4 earning guidance, even with some other expenses or hidden costs that are not included in the above calculations, Mr. De Masi should give a Q4 earning forecast of 20 to 30 cents per share.
Hope there will be a realistic forecast tomorrow, so people can understand the real value of this company. Furthermore, if any company interested in acquiring GLUU, a fare value can be assigned.
Newsletter No. 27- October 18, 2013
"The Focused Stock Trader" has a 12 month target of $9.00
... According to Glu's latest quarterly report, 40.5% of revenue came from the US.
The introduction of Deer Hunter 14 along with the adoption of the Skillz platform could result in the company becoming profitable in a very short amount of time. GLUU reports after the market closes on October 30th. Shorts have been in control of Glu's stock for over a year and with the trend changing from bearish to bullish, the tides have turned and the shorts are slowly being forced to cover.
With a very limited amount of shares available in the float, based on 70.53M outstanding and 35% owned by institutions and insiders, the short interest of 13.5 million shares is a high percentage of the float.
As a result, "The Focused Stock Trader" believes that GLUU is extremely undervalued at these levels because of the high short interest, and the possible surprise in earnings for the fourth quarter.
Znga was the leader before, but how fast it has changed?
Hitech has no mercy! Znga got a respectable CEO (DM) not long ago, and for that there may be a hope now.
There is no time for successful hetech leaders (FB, Goog..) to develop all innovative stuffs themselves. They just have to have the vision to buy small young new ones (once they found). Msft and Yhoo were slow to react so they become old men. Myspace, Rimm almost got wiped out. They all had good leaders before, but why so much different when time goes by.
New game leaders are coming out quick, King, Supercell are examples. Look at how quickly so many new games (dev. by by young co.) have reached top iOS and Android grossings. DM needs to find good ones to quickly get a better/broader foundation, as well as sound model. GLUU seems to be 1 of them that fits at this moment. Market cap is 230M, solid platform and growing worldwide distribution. Their CEO is young with vision and execution plan, just like FB CEO. With growing revenue and earning going forward, even 500 or even 700M is way worth it.
Znga has no time to waste, a few quarters (max. 2 or 3) without big improvement, I am not sure where Znga going to end up with? I saw so many good posters so loyal and kind, this post just to share my view with all of you.
Good luck to Znga!
Our study indicated that there is a 50% chance GLUU will be bought by one of the floowing big hightech companies:
(1) MSFT: MSFT bought so many companies but never really worked for them. Lack of vision (direction) is the key. They urgently need to catch up and become the leader again.
(2) Samsong: Samsong anounced recently that they will enter the software bisiness and interested in buying leading software companies.
(3) Softbank: They just bought 51% of Supercell last week for 1.5 billions and is extremely aggressive in expanding their internet business not only in Japan but also internationally.
(4) EA: They have difficulties maintaining their leading position lately.
(5) Znga: It was a leading company before, but made so many mistakes and ended up in today's situation. Znga may not survive unless they can quickly build thier foundation and catch up with recent winners such as King and Supercell etc..
Other companies including FB, AAPL, MGM etc.
GLUU is a small company (by market cap- $230M). Their new modal and strategies just started showing good success with tremendous growing potential. The company is making about $500k daily (revenue) today. The true value of GLUU, based on our estimate assuming the current success can continue , is about 500M today and could reach 1B next year. Won't be surprised to see GLUU got taken by one of the big hightech companies soon.
On Tuesday (Oct.15), Japan's SoftBank Corp. agreed to buy 51% of the Finnish company Supercell, which has two games and just 100 employees, for $1.5 billion. With 2 big hits in top 10 grossing with sustainable revenue. Supercell just made it.
GLUU seems to follow its step, now 1 hit for 1 month so far. The upcoming 'Motocross Meltdown' may be another big hit once launched. Beta shows excellent download and comments. And If that happens, GLUU may follow Supercell to become a Billion dollars company.
by dR (Dr)
Based on Mac Top Chart- China games on Oct. 17, 2013, DH14 jumped to no.1
GLUU has an office in China. Not sure how much daily revenue it can generate?
It's good to see good results after 27 days of DH14 launching for Apple. Today, it got the No.6 grossing rank, with an estimated daily revenue of $301,924. Mr. de Masi has good success with his team so far. (Not sure exactly how much they got from Android? 53% of Apple revenue, based on August's overall Android/Apple revenue ratio)
It's still too early for most of the investors to believe that this turn around is here to stay. Oct 30's guidance for Q4 should make it clearer.
see Yahoo news for full story
... We reach the conclusion that the skill-based gaming platform, when embedded into a game, can increase the revenue it generates by a factor of about 3.17. That is remarkable considering that this number doesn't reflect other monetization improvements that Glu is taking with GluOn, or the extra users real cash tournaments can attract. The bottom line is that Glu can increase revenues by about 200% for new games that will utilize Skillz platform.
I think that the adoption of the Skillz platform could make the company profitable quickly. I think that while the market tries to understand where Glu can fit in the new US online gambling market it overlooks the substantial opportunity Glu has with the Skillz platform. With 24 games (a dozen 1st party titles and a dozen 3rd party titled) planned for 2013, and the recent success the company experienced with DH14, with projections for game revenues for Q4 as high as $20M, I think Glu can show sustainable profits in 2014. Glu reports after the market closes on October 30th. After the DH14 numbers are official we can start thinking about forecasts for 2014 revenues and profits. If things develop like I believe they will, Glu Mobile should be worth a lot more than the current $209M market cap. Looking forward to your thoughts.
My friend (jupitar),
Good to read your posts!
Apple revenue was taken from Top grossing iOS Games (Ranking list). Android revenue was estimated based on August's reported Apple:Android Revenue Ratio of 65:35. Since Android game revenue was reported to grow at several times of Apple's growth recently, I assume it's to make this assumption .
Certainly those are all estimated numbers, which investors need to know they could change drastically from time to time in today's market.
dR (dum Researcher)
GLUU is getting approximately $390k per day now ($253k from Apple and $136k from Android), it will help to generate about $35.8 million revenue for Q4. Assume other games will do the same as before, the estimated profit for Q4 will be around 27 cents per share.
Using a PE of 10, GLUU price could reach $10 after the Q4 earning report.
With 75% shares own by institutions, the float is only about 20 million shares. Once people are convinced that the daily revenue is here to stay, there will be a big rush to jump to this sock.
Longs can sit back and relax. In the mean time watch for daily revenue to see if there is any change. Shorts are betting on this big hit will be short lived, which should be carefully reevaluated to see if they need to change the position because loss could be tremendous and maximum gain is $2.94 (today's closing price).
GLUU revenue increased from $250.6k per day last week to 253.1k per day this week.
It's the 22nd day; this revenue is only from Apple, Android will add additional 50% to the revenue.
Investors should sit back and let it walk its way out. It could be a $8 dollar stock or higher after 2014Q1 report (if this revenue can continue.
gluu finally has 1 big hit, can DH2014 help gluu to prosper?
Depending on how long DH can stay at the top? And, can gluu come up with another hit (1 or more).
'Supercell' is an example which has the best potential now. The have 2 hits now: Clash of Clans (no.2 with $671k per day) and Hay Day (no.5 with $356k/d). The company has a daily revenue of about 1.3 million dollar per day (vs. GLUU's expected revenue of $0.5 million a day for now). Their games have been on Grossing Top List for more than 1 year now and still going strong.
GLUU seems to use the same approach:
(1) use its own platform (not relying on FB)
(2) Let worldwide users playing with each other (tournament) as well.
(3) Spend money to build their own clans, territory, defense, weapon etc.
How to keep players interested (long term) with good support and regular update is the key.
Hope GLUU can have good success too!
Glu just started turning around, if current DH2014 revenue can continue.
Q3 earning (Oct.28 report) will still be bad, outlook indicated: 20m revenue, 10 cents loss per share.
With unexpected DH revenue, it may add 3.4m revenue and 3cents/share on Q3 earning.
The most important thing is 2013Q4 and 2014. Assume current revenue continues:
Revenue will add: 27.5m (18m from iOS + 9.5m from Android)
Q4 Net earning will become: 21m (27.5-6.4)x2/3, or 18 cents per share
Assume P/E=10, GLUU share may worth $7.2
if iOS daily revenue stays at the latest of 250k per day, GLUU may worth $9.0 per share in January 2014.
Just a rough estimate (assume current situation continues)
by: dR (dum researcher)